Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:29:31

Constituency Profile


Free, Kyle

Hammoud, Mohamed

Mathyssen, Lindsay

Vanderley, Mattias


Lindsay Mathyssen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



115.07 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Lindsay Mathyssen 2267140.80%
Mohamed Hammoud 1492426.90%
Michael van Holst 1377024.80%
Tom Cull 27815.00%
Bela Kosoian 11322.00%
Stephen Campbell 2970.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Irene Mathyssen ** 2068437.80%
Khalil Ramal 1721431.40%
Suzanna Dieleman 1489127.20%
Matthew Peloza 16042.90%
Ali Hamadi 3520.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5811.22%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (89.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   London North Centre
   (7.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Teresa J. Armstrong * 2527255.68%
Eric Weniger 1351929.78%
Lawvin Hadisi 37978.37%
Lisa Carriere 20504.52%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10582.67%

19/09/21 jeff316
Gotta give Mathyssen the Younger her due - she could have proven to be a one-termer, taking over her mom's old riding, but she's no dud. She has made a name for herself in this riding through solid constit work, keeping her head down in Ottawa, and solidifying the local NDP apparatus in the community. She's one to watch out for in the coming years, in terms of slowly building her profile.
17/09/21 prognosticator15
I agree with NDP call for this low attention riding. Mathyssen the daughter has built upon an effective political machine of her mother that produces votes and keeps connection to its support base in this still partly working class, partly low middle class riding with high unemployment and pockets of deprivation, a typical NDP power base. Combined with selective NDP appeal to some better-off and woke indoctrinated sections, public service workers and others, it produces wins election after election. Though it can be close on occasions, it is usually enough for a strong advantage, and with the generation change in 2019, keeps a-cross generational appeal. Lindsay is not quite the loudest NDP voice in its caucus, yet after just two years (and Irene's earlier wins), it is possible to talk about some personality-based appeal, perhaps even based on a promotion picture for some soft supporters, but fundamentally on image of politically competent usefulness for voters within her party and in politics generally. It is of course, still limited by the NDP appeal as this power to win elections is directly linked to the party and not to across-party appeal, just the way it was for other skillful mediators, for instance, for Liberal Frank Valeriote in Guelph or for Conservative Maxime Bernier in Beauce before his split, or for caucus colleague Brian Masse in Windsor West - such appeal has some political machine elements to it allowing to increase margins beyond average party numbers, yet cannot assume to simply turn voters into personal supporters if they split from their party. Nonetheless, the Mathyssen family machine is impressive and hard to beat, progressives turn to NDP before Libs in part because of it, while Cons have been weakened here substantively in the 21st century and run a little known candidate this time. One tendency is for many voters of Middle East descent to turn to 'their' ethnicity candidate, undoubtedly creating some votes for Mohamed Hammoud of the Liberals as it did last time, but this trend is neither across the board for this group not sufficient on its own to overturn Mathyssen advantages. I predict a win by Lindsay with an increased margin.
31/08/21 R.O.
Lindsey Mathysen was first elected in 2019 although her mother represented the same riding from 2006-19. Momamed Hammond is back as the liberal candidate and Mattias Vanderley is the conservative candidate. Likely to stay ndp as things stand now.
13/05/21 ME
This is a NDP safe seat...according to 338
08/08/21 A.S.
That daughter built so solidly upon mother's advantage--a more than doubled margin, and crossing the 40% threshold--highlights how something's been happening w/the Fanshawe Dipper machine that so many other local riding associations would covet. Almost to the point where it could have survived in '19 even if Jagmeet lost official party status.

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