Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:57:00

Constituency Profile


Bors, Florian

Foxton, Michelle

Garrison, Steve

Hamilton, Blake

Neufeld, Calvin

Reid, Scott


Scott Reid

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



6467.65 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Scott Reid ** 3007748.10%
Kayley Kennedy 1544124.70%
Satinka Schilling 883514.10%
Stephen Kotze 701111.20%
Matthew Barton 11171.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Reid ** 2739947.90%
Phil Archambault 1932533.80%
John Fenik 807314.10%
Anita Payne 20253.50%
Mark Budd 4180.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2740.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
   (79.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (12.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kingston and the Islands
   (8.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Randy Hillier * 2619452.03%
Ramsey Hart 1533930.47%
Amanda Pulker-Mok 535910.64%
Anita Payne 24104.79%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 180.04%

13/09/21 M K
It's odd to say as Scott Reid has hardly bothered campaigning and there's less of a sign effort from the Conservatives than even the PPC, but there's no way anyone else wins this riding.
40% is probably the floor for Reid, and high-30s the ceiling for Foxton. Garrison is a known quantity and has enough support that NDP should perform in the 20s.
05/09/21 Wildflower
I would say this is too close to call because Randy Hillier is supporting the people party Candidate and not Scott Reid, the Conservative Candidate.
Yes the vote could split on the right, and either a Liberal or NDP Candidate cou,ld come up through the middle. Or the people party Candidate might win the riding from disgusted voters over the lockdowns.
Hard to say because the seniors do not want a 2 tier healthcare system because they can barely afford their medications as it is now
27/08/21 R.O.
Scott Reid has been mp for this area since 2000 although the ridings boundaries have changed somewhat. Also Randy Hilliers riding provincially and could see an odd race here if he runs again and he seems to support the peoples party now. But likely to stay conservative.
02/08/21 KingstonLocal
Scott Reid hasn't had to worry about elections since his first one in 2000, but I don't think we can call this one a sure thing. The challenger Michelle Foxton has been in the Frontenac News a lot over the last couple of months, and it seems like this will be the most active campaign to unseat Reid since his first campaign. Strategic and ABC voting could also have an outsized impact in a long-held riding. I'll probably update this prediction to Conservative after the campaign ramps up, but in the pre-writ speculation phase I'll say ‘no opinion.’
21/05/21 Craig
Scott Reid has been an institution for over 20 years and there is no reason why that won't continue. The Liberal vote fell dramatically from 2015 to 2019 and while they still have a bit of support in the southern part of the riding, that is dwarfed by strongly conservative Lanark County (and sparsely populated northern Frontenac County). The urban liberal agenda the LPC presents doesn't fly here at all. (The provincial election here might be interesting though...)
Even the most suburban part of the riding - around Carleton Place and Almonte - is still very strongly conservative despite growth from Ottawa commuters. Did they escape liberalism or assimilate? It may be only a 25 minute drive from downtown Ottawa to the edge of this riding, but it's a world away politically.
08/08/21 A.S.
If I were in the Scott Reid camp, I wouldn't be eyeing the threat on the left per se so much as I'd be eyeing the threat on the right--after all, this is Randy Hillier's provincial stronghold, and who knows what that means for dissident right-of-centre forces. So if Foxton's running a particularly ‘active’ campaign, maybe it's *that* which she's capitalizing on. Still, it seems a long-shot threat, even if Reid's been submajority for two elections running (but that's what a more organic ‘Frontenac moderation’ within the riding will bring you).

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