Bors, Florian
	Foxton, Michelle
	Garrison, Steve
	Hamilton, Blake
	Neufeld, Calvin
	Reid, Scott
Incumbent:
	Scott Reid

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			101630 98424 51548 41424 6467.65 km² 15.70/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Scott Reid **	30077	48.10%
	Kayley Kennedy	15441	24.70%
	Satinka Schilling	8835	14.10%
	Stephen Kotze	7011	11.20%
	Matthew Barton	1117	1.80%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Scott Reid **	27399	47.90%
	Phil Archambault	19325	33.80%
	John Fenik	8073	14.10%
	Anita Payne	2025	3.50%
	Mark Budd	418	0.70%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		30151	60.08%
		9092	18.12%
		8219	16.38%
		2451	4.88%
Other		274	0.55%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington    (79.05% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Carleton-Mississippi Mills    (12.59% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Kingston and the Islands    (8.36% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Randy Hillier *	26194	52.03%
	Ramsey Hart	15339	30.47%
	Amanda Pulker-Mok	5359	10.64%
	Anita Payne	2410	4.79%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		11815	27.98%
		19816	46.92%
		7678	18.18%
		2903	6.87%
Other		18	0.04%

	13/09/21	M K 142.185.230.219
It's odd to say as Scott Reid has hardly bothered campaigning and there's less of a sign effort from the Conservatives than even the PPC, but there's no way anyone else wins this riding. 40% is probably the floor for Reid, and high-30s the ceiling for Foxton. Garrison is a known quantity and has enough support that NDP should perform in the 20s.
	05/09/21	Wildflower 172.83.175.119
I would say this is too close to call because Randy Hillier is supporting the people party Candidate and not Scott Reid, the Conservative Candidate. Yes the vote could split on the right, and either a Liberal or NDP Candidate cou,ld come up through the middle. Or the people party Candidate might win the riding from disgusted voters over the lockdowns. Hard to say because the seniors do not want a 2 tier healthcare system because they can barely afford their medications as it is now
	27/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Scott Reid has been mp for this area since 2000 although the ridings boundaries have changed somewhat. Also Randy Hilliers riding provincially and could see an odd race here if he runs again and he seems to support the peoples party now. But likely to stay conservative.
	02/08/21	KingstonLocal 3.96.51.153
Scott Reid hasn't had to worry about elections since his first one in 2000, but I don't think we can call this one a sure thing. The challenger Michelle Foxton has been in the Frontenac News a lot over the last couple of months, and it seems like this will be the most active campaign to unseat Reid since his first campaign. Strategic and ABC voting could also have an outsized impact in a long-held riding. I'll probably update this prediction to Conservative after the campaign ramps up, but in the pre-writ speculation phase I'll say ‘no opinion.’
	21/05/21	Craig 24.233.238.158
Scott Reid has been an institution for over 20 years and there is no reason why that won't continue. The Liberal vote fell dramatically from 2015 to 2019 and while they still have a bit of support in the southern part of the riding, that is dwarfed by strongly conservative Lanark County (and sparsely populated northern Frontenac County). The urban liberal agenda the LPC presents doesn't fly here at all. (The provincial election here might be interesting though...) Even the most suburban part of the riding - around Carleton Place and Almonte - is still very strongly conservative despite growth from Ottawa commuters. Did they escape liberalism or assimilate? It may be only a 25 minute drive from downtown Ottawa to the edge of this riding, but it's a world away politically.
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
If I were in the Scott Reid camp, I wouldn't be eyeing the threat on the left per se so much as I'd be eyeing the threat on the right--after all, this is Randy Hillier's provincial stronghold, and who knows what that means for dissident right-of-centre forces. So if Foxton's running a particularly ‘active’ campaign, maybe it's *that* which she's capitalizing on. Still, it seems a long-shot threat, even if Reid's been submajority for two elections running (but that's what a more organic ‘Frontenac moderation’ within the riding will bring you).