Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:07:28

Constituency Profile


Henry, Jason

Hull, Jeremy

Mitchell, Kevin

Ranade, Sudit

Rood, Lianne


Lianne Rood

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4920.98 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Lianne Rood 2865149.00%
Jesse McCormick 1481425.40%
Dylan Mclay 935516.00%
Anthony Li 34635.90%
Bria Atkins 18043.10%
Rob Lalande 3250.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bev Shipley ** 2830050.20%
Ken Filson 1659229.40%
Rex Isaac 959817.00%
Jim Johnston 18733.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4130.81%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Monte Mcnaughton * 2790655.34%
Todd Case 1680033.32%
Mike Radan 31436.23%
Anthony Li 16603.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 15703.47%

10/09/21 Jake H.
Incumbent Rood will hold this seat. Like so many other seats in SW Ontario, this one is safe to call for the Cons. Unlike Chatham-Kent, they don't have as much of a PPC presence in this riding, and Rood is winning the sign and word of mouth war by a wide margin.
06/09/21 prognosticator15
Lianne Rood has established herself as a reliable MP who mostly stays on agricultural topics in her work, being essentially top Cons person on agriculture, the industry dominating this huge riding. Like other rural ridings (Huron Bruce etc.), it is likely to stay with Cons by a substantial margin. There is no love lost for the Libs in this area, much like in many other areas with traditional producing industries. Ontario risk management program is not an issue of controversy for Rood. Some changes in the riding are created by sections of 'latte sipping' constituency coming to its eastern outskirts and to retiree developments along Lake Huron shoreline (as applied to people with urban mindset, not just to explicit lefties). Although not linked to agriculture and agribusiness, this is not necessarily an anti-Cons section, with a few being 'refugees' of well-off families looking for more space and escaping London's ugly urban intensification pursued by its progressivist council. It is, however, a more diverse group that makes some near-London polls closer. Pockets of more traditional left support exist in Strathroy and on the Aboriginal reserves (Oneida of the Thames, Kettle Point), this time much likelier to go NDP than Lib due to its candidate Jason Henry being a temporary elected Chief of the Chippewas of Kettle and Stony Point First Nation, while Libs put forward a paper candidate from outside of the area (Sarnia) without similar local connections. In addition, even more so than last time, PPC (which in Ontario opinion polls is now as popular as in the West) will do well in western sections around Wallaceburg, potentially even pushing into the second place behind Cons in some polls, based on insufficient opposition to vaccine mandates and on near total abandonment by the O'Toole Red Tories of social conservatism of any sort (including transgenderism issue, plus a leader's statement interpreted as NOT protecting pharmacists from Lib repression when refusing abortion pills). However, a small-c conservative profile of the candidate fits the riding, and combined with her strong local connections, a likely role as agriculture chief in O'Toole government and clear constituency majority wish to dispose of the federal Libs in the first place, a PPC damage to Cons will be kept to a minimum. Overall, it is likely Lianne Rood will be pushing at above 50% of the total vote, and a probability of Cons topping all the polls save Aboriginal reserves is also fairly high.
27/08/21 R.O.
Lianne Rodd was first elected in 2019 replacing long time mp Bev Shipley in a riding that has been conservative since 2006. Rural south western Ontario so likely to stay cpc .
20/08/21 Philip Shaw
Lots of Lianne Rood signs up early, which isn't a surprise. Her support of conversion therapy by default very troubling, unless I have that wrong. She doesn't answer social media and still very much an unknown. The biggest issue in the riding is business risk management for farmers. However, she opposes federal participation for the Ontario risk management program, a default for any candidate here. Also too, 30% of the LKM tomato crop destroyed this spring, but her social media talks about her touring Western Canada and their drought problems, when LKM had catastrophic damage. Despite that, she is the person to beat here as LKM has a long history of Conservative wins. Strong Liberal and NDP candidates will have to work hard to get more votes.
04/07/21 seasaw
Last election, many thought that this being an open seat, the Liberals had a chance, but the CPC took it by almost a 2 to 1 margin, they'll win again this time, the margin may be smaller or larger, depending on the campaign.
08/08/21 A.S.
Looking back to '19, those ‘many’ who thought the Libs stood a chance in *this* open seat certainly didn't exist in EPP--look, you don't argue with what was already a majority and an over-20-point margin in '15. Though Rood did lose that majority...thanks to one of PPC's better-performers. (And as I anticipated, Wallaceburg was a heart of PPC overperformance. And as I also sort-of-anticipated, there were spots of light for the Libs in London exurbia.)

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