Election Prediction Project

Kitchener South-Hespeler
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:44:09

Constituency Profile


Arangath, Suresh

Baetz, Elaine

Baumgaertner, Melissa

Bradford, Valerie

Calver, Tyler

Davis, Stephen

Morrison, C.A.

Rose, Gabe


Marwan Tabbara

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



104.28 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marwan Tabbara ** 2098640.20%
Alan Keeso 1748033.50%
Wasai Rahimi 694513.30%
David Weber 567110.90%
Joseph Todd 10051.90%
Matthew Correia 900.20%
Elaine Baetz 560.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marwan Tabbara 2021542.30%
Marian Gagné 1754436.70%
Lorne Bruce 744015.60%
David Weber 17673.70%
Nathan Lajeunesse 7721.60%
Elaine Baetz 910.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 470.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (64.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (26.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kitchener Centre
   (8.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Amy Fee 1651138.86%
Fitzroy Vanderpool 1574137.05%
Surekha Shenoy 633514.91%
David Weber 31987.53%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6381.88%

19/09/21 prognosticator15
On the strength of anti-Liberal feeling in Southwestern Ontario, low PPC importance in Kitchener-Waterloo area and a celebrity status of CPC candidate, this should be called Conservative. Also on the basis of probabilities, Kitchener-Conestoga and Cambridge should be called the same way as the first two factors also apply there. It will be close, but a bump in Cons support will be enough for Cons to take it.
16/09/21 R.O.
Want to update my prediction here despite being an open race and no incumbent as Marwan Tabbara decided to not run as an independent. The riding has got little attention, not sure if any party leaders have been here but not aware of any visits. Neither of the main 2 candidates are especially high profile , Valerie Bradford liberal or Tyler Calver cpc who had been a tv reporter before so perhaps he’s better known in that area. the riding itself has only existed since 2015 and is a mix of newer suburban areas in south Kitchener and north Cambridge. It went pc provincially in 2018 by a small margin when Amy Fee elected but that mpp isn’t even running again after only 1 term. Suresh Arangath is the new ndp candidate , Singh campaigned in Kitchener Centre the other day but not this riding.
16/09/21 Sam
I think whoever wins a plurality will likely win here. I think the CPC will, hence my projection. But if the person behind the site believes it will be a Liberal win, then a Liberal call is reasonable.
02/09/21 Predictions
After Conestoga, this is the most CPC-friendly riding in the Tri-Cities. It will be a dead heat between LPC and CPC.
24/08/21 Outside Inside
Oh come now, Election Prediction Project. Kitchener South-Hespeler is about as prototypically 'too close to call' as they come: no incumbent, a rare urban(ish) Soutwestern Ontario seat that remained a close competitive LIB-CPC race in both 2015 and 2019, the two main parties polling within a competitive range of each other province-wide... certainly not 'safe LPC' at this stage.
15/08/21 R.O.
This riding essentially has no incumbent as Marwan Tabbara was removed from liberals and been independent since. So its an open race, both 2015 and 2019 elections were still relatively close here despite the liberal strength in urban southern Ontario. I’d like to see how the race plays out in Ontario before making a solid prediction here.
13/08/21 prognosticator15
A good joke is that Libs are only ready to go for an election once politically useful but no longer electorally useful Marwan Tabbara who still votes Liberal as an independent, is compensated with a very generous parliamentary pension. By now the whole Liberal class of 2015 who stayed has earned such pensions, possibly explaining some other retirement decisions (Kate Young? Adam Vaughan?), but the Tabbara case is most poignant. His legal troubles are unlikely to affect this election as it was Trudeau vote/Liberal vote that allowed him to defeat two clearly more accomplished Cons candidates. Kitchener-Waterloo area has become less Cons-friendly in the past 10 years, but this riding and Conestoga, plus Cambridge remain key swing areas. I am unsure of which of the two has more appeal to new professionals and families moving into the area, with leftist oligarchy candidate (Bradford) presenting oneself in general terms (your run-of-the-mill bland Lib like Tabbara in 15 and 19) and Con candidate (Tyler Calver) being a TV star of a sort like Peter Kent. When candidates matter in an open riding, it can even go against the trend, in particular if there is no Lib wave as in 2015, only a poll lead. Cons are hurt and also become bland when they do not oppose Paris Treaty and Lib green job-killing schemes, promoting own green targets instead this time, but a well-spoken candidate may help, and money will be pouring in. TCTC for now.
07/06/21 Chris N
I'd say the Liberals have a slight edge in this riding, but with no incumbent and a close result in 2019 and 2015, it's too early to say for sure.
11/05/21 Jeremus von Stoheim
This riding will become more and more comparable to a suburban gta riding as the rural areas turn urban here, so the liberals should hold this, unless they choose a very poor candidate
08/08/21 A.S.
I was ready to withhold a prediction simply as a bow to the Libs trying to extricate themselves from the shadow of Marwan Tabbara--but it does look like they nominated with more of a confident eye to viability than they likely did in '15's third-party circumstance. Still, KSH had CPC's strongest non-incumbent Waterloo Region result in '19--though Waterloo Region seems presently a ‘CPC still trending downward’ sort of place. Also look to a ‘normalizing’ NDP rise (Mike Morrice coattails led to a parasitically double-digit share for the Greens in '19).

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