Election Prediction Project

Kitchener Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-18 19:08:03

Constituency Profile


Boskovic, Diane

Henein Thorn, Mary

Morrice, Mike

Papenburg, Ellen

Saini, Raj

Zubi, Beisan


Raj Saini

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



41.47 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Raj Saini ** 2031636.70%
Mike Morrice 1439426.00%
Stephen Woodworth 1319123.80%
Andrew Moraga 623811.30%
Patrick Bernier 10331.90%
Ellen Papenburg 2020.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Raj Saini 2550448.80%
Stephen Woodworth ** 1587230.40%
Susan Cadell 868016.60%
Nicholas Wendler 15973.10%
Slavko Miladinovic 5151.00%
Julian Ichim 1120.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3950.84%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Kitchener Centre
   (84.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (15.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Laura Mae Lindo 2051243.38%
Mary Henein Thorn 1308027.66%
Daiene Vernile * 949920.09%
Stacey Danckert 32346.84%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5101.28%

18/09/21 Physastr Master
This really is anyone's guess at this point, but I'm leaning towards Morrice. He did incredibly well far overperforming expectations last election, so I think all he needed to do to remain a good option was not have his party be completely unpalatable. While Paul didn't necessarily impress in the debates, she probably at least stopped the bleeding and let Morrice more credibly make his case. He got 26% last election, and this is enough of a mess that he might not even need to improve that to win. The NDP started pretty far back, so with another credible left-ish choice already competitive the NDP surging out of the doldrums to take Kitchener Centre seems like a stretch, albeit one I would like to see.
18/09/21 lgbt_climatevoter1
Even though this will be a super close race between the Greens, Cons, and NDP- post departure of Saini- I’m going to predict that much of the Liberal vote will go to the Greens. Even high profile Liberals within the riding, such as former Liberal MPP Daiene Vernille and Brenden Sherratr, long-time former riding association of the Kitchener Centre LPC- have endorsed Mike Morrice.
Moreover, Annamie Paul has also visited this riding, I believe the day after Singh visited, which clearly shows that the Greens are strongly targeting this seat as it’s within reach for them.
17/09/21 go vote
looks like an easy Green pickup, Morrice is just too well known locally against a weak NDP campaign and an always left leaning kit-cen despite the vote split.
17/09/21 Teddy Boragina
Keep in mind that this is in the ‘triangle’ that the Greens have always done 'well' in, in ontario.
For whatever reason - reasons I admit I don't fully understand - if you draw a triangle from Cambridge, to Penetanguishene, to Owen Sound, you find the Greens doing better than they ‘should’ in almost every riding in the area.
Kitchener is in this odd green triangle, and while that alone is not the reason the Greens will win (I think other submitters have explained it well) it is some important context in how this is far from being as impossible as some have thought.
16/09/21 prognosticator15
Suddenly, this is an electorally and intellectually most interesting riding as few would have thought earlier of a question, where would the Liberal vote go when a Liberal (in particular, the one likely to win) is 'n'est pas disponible'. Few 2019 Libs would stay home in an important election or vote for Saini anyway as his scandal was too widely publicized for them to be unaware of his unavailabiity. A relatively small number of them will boost Henein Thorn, but battle lines have been too sharply drawn for much of a direct Lib-Cons switch to occur in this election. A less Cons-friendly demographics of this riding as compared to Conestoga, Hespeler or Cambridge (though still somewhat more pro-Cons than authoritarian progressive academe-dominated Waterloo) should also be accounted for. Of a good 80% of Saini vote that may be estimated to be available for other progressives to grab, Green is clearly preferable to a section that would view Greens (correctly) as somewhat of a Lib clone, and will vote only for these modern Greens which could be viewed by others as a globalist elite-sponsored party for voter gaslighting (in particular, when Libs are unavailable as here). But while Green vote may go up as a result, most Libs will move to a more authentic left alternative, in particular as most (not all, for sure, but most) Lib-NDP vote in a heavy urban riding with flaky allegiances is interchangeable, the NDP is well established and organized with lots of promotion for its candidate, and the Greens may also LOSE some of theirs due to publicized internal party squabbles. With that, it is still a close call, in particular with poor NDP result last time, but with LIb vote up in the air, 2019 result might not be the most important factor.
14/09/21 ME
The Liberal vote has collapsed and the Greens are now in the lead....with the NDP second...the Liberal vote is moving to the Greens
14/09/21 KXS
Jagmeet Singh is visiting Kitchener today (September 14th).
Either the NDP internals are showing that this riding is within reach for them OR they want to want to ensure that the Greens don't get a toehold in Ontario at the federal level.
14/09/21 J.F. Breton
Annamie Paul est un véritable boulet pour les Verts au Québec, ce qui ne semble être moins le cas dans le reste du Canada. L'élection de Morrice serait une excellente nouvelle pour les Verts canadiens, permettant de décloisonner le vote brittano-colombien. Et ce serait d'autant mieux si Paul était battue, cequi devrait être le cas. La présence du nom du candidat libéral sur les bulletins de vote devrait jouer en faveur des Verts, par division du vote, et si on se fie aux agrégateurs de sondages, Morrice serait en légère avance ici. Ce sera serré.
10/09/21 talking over each other
greens winning sign game in this riding, will definitely be the most exciting riding on election night
10/09/21 Alex B
With no Liberal Candidate, The Conservatives have the edge here. I just don't see the Greens or NDP able to make up enough ground to win this. Conservative pick-up.
3 way tie between CON 26% , NDP 26% and Green 25%. If you drive through the riding Green and NDP signs are everywhere, less so for the Conservatives. The NDP hold this riding providentially and MPP is helping the NDP candidate campaign. I think the majority of the Lib vote will go to the greens or the NDP, I think a smaller portion will go to the CONS. Ultimately i think it will be either Green or NDP.
09/09/21 Kitchener Centre
Following the suspension of Raj Saini's campaign, the strength of the local Mike Morrice machine should be sufficient to absorb the support needed to edge out the others. Barring a late-breaking uptick in national NDP support, this one should be a Green pickup in an otherwise terrible routing for the Party.
09/09/21 Jake H.
I tend to agree with Physaster Master's analysis of this riding.
This is definitely a ‘riding to watch’ on election night. It's both incredibly interesting, and an incredible mess - which makes it impossible to call right now!
A lot of this will come down to how many votes the Liberals retain - because even though Raj Saini ended his candidacy in the wake of several sexual harassment allegations by female staffers, his name remains on the ballots, and a lot of people will not be aware of his non-candidacy. There are a lot of die-hard Liberals in this riding so expect him to get thousands of votes.
The Green candidate is known and liked and does well in this riding, but Green support seems to be ticking down across the board, so it will be interesting to see how he performs. He could potentially be that party's next de facto leader, or, if he loses again, walk off into the sunset!
The trend has been to the left in this riding, but the Conservatives took it in a very close one in 2008 and not-so-close one in 2011, so they could take it back, depending on how the Green and NDP votes go/split.
(Speaking of the NDP, they always seem to have a different candidate federally in this riding, and finished a distant 4th in 2019, so it'll also be interesting to see how Beisan Zubi does.)
07/09/21 Josh Martini
An interesting riding made even more interesting now. The Liberal candidate will remain on the ballot and will probably still obtain around 15% due to people not following the news.
Of course there's still a lot of votes getting reallocated. If they are split I feel the Conservatives will win, but if they heavily lean towards the Greens or NDP then they will win. Greens have the historical advantage of doing well in 2019, but the NDP has the advantage of being stronger federally now relative to 2019.
Morrice is running a very visible campaign so perhaps the Green's woes federally may not matter. It's not like Kitchener-Centre was a Green bastion, it was all Morrice in 2019. Even if the NDP is running a stronger candidate, they are starting a bit deeper in the hole so it may take a bit more of the ex-Liberal votes to win. Still possible, but right now I think the Conservatives are the slight favourites.
07/09/21 Philly D.
This is more of a hedge than a prediction.
The thing is, if the Greens win this, Mike Morrice is probably the Greens next leader. The electorate here is rapidly becoming quite sophisticated (Green voters tend to be quite sophisticated themselves), and a fair number of people here will catch on to this.
It is true that the Mainstreet poll suggests the NDP have a great chance, and they do have a very good candidate. But they are coming back from quite a distance, and riding polls have been known to be hilariously inaccurate in the past. It will be very close between these two parties.
As for the Conservatives... Woodworth's raw vote total dropped last time while the total number of votes increased. Not a great sign, especially not given regional trends we have bben seeing in the past few provincial and federal elections.
The Tri-Cities region looks like it will be playing a major role in Ontario's evolution over the next century and a Green win here (to go with the Green MPP in Guelph) would underscore this.
06/09/21 Physastr Master
Wow, this is a mess. This isn't a right-wing riding so one would normally think the NDP would pick it up, I think the 2018 Ontario election is actually a pretty good blueprint - dead Liberals, Cons and NDP near ceilings, and a comfortable NDP win. Morrice is the wild card and the reason it's competitive, as it makes the strategic progressive vote very confusing. I see this as going one of three ways:
1. A weak green party tanks Morrice, NDP form clear strategic choice, NDP win.
2. Morrice's strong result last election makes people think the Greens can win, and vote green without inhibition in spite of the national trends. Morrice wins.
3. A bit of both of the above happens, splitting the vote, Conservatives win.
Of course, I'm nowhere near Kitchener and have no idea what's happening on the ground, so I'll defer to local voices on this one. National trends don't matter much.
06/09/21 Rational Optimist
It was exciting when this riding might have again been the Green's best performance in Ontario. And now it is a real three-way race.
I think that the edge goes to the Tories, personally. Mary Heinen Thorn is only a first-time candidate federally: she has run provincially in the past. With the CPC improving nationally, I think many of Saini's voters will switch to Thorn.
Some previous Green voters will switch to the NDP, who (as others have noted) have a much stronger candidate than last time around.
It will be really close, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Green Party is back in third, maybe even only five points behind the ultimate winner.
06/09/21 Not Non-Partisan
With Saini Liberal withdrawal and the Green collapse, this is a CPC - NDP tussle now. Seems like an unlikely NDP seat. Blue.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Now that the Liberal Candidate dropped out due to allegations, I can see this as an NDP pick up.
1) Most people do not want a 2 tier healthcare system
2) They want stronger targets to deal with climate change
3) More investments into pharmacare, lower dental coverage for people with a lower income
05/09/21 R.O.
Incumbent liberal mp Raj Saini has ended his campaign for re election after facing accusations of harassment in the workplace. Meaning this riding has no liberal candidate and will elect a new mp . likely either Mary Henein Thorn conservative, Beisan Zubi ndp or Mike Morrice green. The cpc candidate had previously ran in the 2018 provincial election when the riding went ndp but still a good candidate for them . This riding wasn’t really on the ndp’s radar but I’m sure it is now. The greens also posted a very strong result here in 2019 with 26 % of the vote so with no liberal could have a shot too although greens are much lower in the polls this year. tough to say rate now imagine we’ll see some party leaders visit this one in final weeks
05/09/21 Dr Bear
And like that, this riding is turned on it’s head. A sure seat for the Liberals is now certainly TCTC, with a full third of the vote up for grabs. However I think the Conservatives will take it in the end. Here’s why:
First of all, the CPC has a solid base of support in the riding and it can only be built upon. O’Toole has the momentum at the moment and he is coming across as rather reasonable and prime-ministerial. This will win over voters that voted CPC during the Harper years but have since gone Liberal.
Second, the NDP and the Greens are going to split the left of centre vote. Were this 2019, I would be calling this a certain Green Party pick up, however my previous comments still stand. Many voters who would otherwise have voted Liberal will be giving the Greens a tepid second chance. Others will opt for the NDP, seeing how well Singh apparently is doing. That will split the left of centre Liberal cohort.
Third, the Liberal candidate will have his name on the ballot. Some voters will still cast their lot with him regardless (we saw this in Mississauga Malton with the CPC candidate in 2015).
05/09/21 seasaw
This has traditionally been a bellwether riding, the ruling party has won the seat in all but one election in the past 40+ years, This time however, things may be different, the Liberal MP, Raj Saini, stepped down as a candidate and I don't know if the Liberals have the time to appoint another candidate. The bottom line is that the Liberals aren't going to win this riding, even in case of a slight chance they have in forming the government, which is now not a sure thing. Who will win? Who knows? It's very tough to predict
05/09/21 Thomas K
Looks like Raj Saini is ending his campaign. This was pretty much safe liberal before, so it will be very interesting who takes his votes. I think the green campaign is in disarray so I'm going to go out on a limb and predict this going NDP.
04/09/21 Rt. Hon. Adult
Now that the Liberals have disqualified themselves, Kitchener Centre has become the dream of every other party's supporters -- a true ideological three-way race.
There are strong arguments for and against any of their other three parties:
The Tories are the natural default for apolitical voters with the Liberals eliminated and are winning the overall campaign at this time BUT... the riding is even less a home for them now than the version Stephen Woodworth represented.
(Fischer-Hallman, this is not).
The Greens have a strong local candidate with roots BUT...are at risk of imploding due to the ugly in-fighting (2019, this is not).
The NDP proved provincially that it could win in the same boundaries BUT... the socialism here is still more of the blue collar mix of their provincial cousins than the Hugo Boss version Jagmeet Singh is offering. (Waterloo, this is not).
I'm very excited to see how this one plays out but suspect that the edge goes to the NDP who can easily pivot more resources to the riding to make this theirs; the locals are just too anti-conservative for the Tories and the Greens are too anti-leader to be viable.
04/09/21 KXS
Saini drops out but his name will be still be on the ballot. Will be interesting to see how the progressive vote coalesces in this center-left riding.
I noticed the Morrice campaign is running an ‘NDP 2015’ style campaign where they are highlighting how they were a strong 2nd in the last campaign. I don't think this is a good sign, and it shows that they are not where they want to be.
There are a lot of Liberals voters that consider the NDP as their 2nd choice and don't bother to give the Greens a look. This is especially true in an election cycle where the Greens are not really a factor. These are the folks that helped the NDP win this riding provincially.
The CPC could win with a perfect vote split on the left, while picking up some dissatisfied LPC voters (whether they are disgusted with the Saini fiasco or the national Liberal campaign).
04/09/21 Marco Ricci
Liberal MP Raj Saini announced today that he has ended his campaign for re-election. The deadline to find a new candidate has passed, so the Liberals will not be able to have a candidate here.
02/09/21 KXS
I feel the winner of Kitchener Centre could take it with less than 30% of the vote.
Hard to say which party will benefit the most from the allegations against MP Saini.
02/09/21 Predictions
And just like that, Kitchener Centre becomes one of the very genuine few four-way races in the country.
Whether Saini gets dropped or not (as of right now he's still running for the Liberals), he's probably toast. Mike Morrice is re-offering for the Greens, but the national party is in a very bad place. The NDP did well in a recent riding poll, but they'll have to compete with Morrice for the ‘left-of-Liberal’ vote. As for the Tories, this is their worst riding in the Tri-Cities+Brantford stretch after Waterloo.
Really, I wouldn't be surprised to see this go any of four ways. I'd give the Tories a smidgen of an advantage here, but it's a toss-up through and through.
What's funny is I see this as the most likely Green pickup in Ontario, more likely than the leader herself. But this will require Morrice to run a very independent campaign and convince Liberal voters that they should dump Saini and vote for him, the strongest progressive option in K-C, at least in 2019.
02/09/21 J.B.
Mainstreet riding poll from Aug 24 shows a tight three-way race between LPC, CPC and NDP (albeit a small sample size).
Add LPC candidate Saini's harassment allegations and Green candidate Morrice's strong campaigning, this seat is up for grabs by any of the four parties.
01/09/21 Danny
With news of multiple, credible harassment allegations against Raj Saini, this riding should be moved to too close to call. I think the Liberals made a mistake keeping him on the ballot. I guess with the CPC, NDP, and Greens all running strong candidates here, Saini could squeak through on a narrow plurality, but these allegations are pretty disturbing and could make Saini toxic even to Liberals.
31/08/21 Jacob
This might be the most interesting riding in Waterloo Region this election. We've got:
- Saini: an incumbent Liberal with a relatively low 36% last time (Chagger got 50% in Waterloo, which is right next to this one)
- Morrice: a Green who pulled 26% on his previous (and first) run in a riding with no major historical Green support
- Henein-Thorn: a first-time Conservative candidate with less notoriety
- Zubi: an NDP candidate who is stronger than Moraga was and somewhat better known than the previous option (she ran for regional council in Waterloo in the last municipal election)
My gut instinct after the 2019 election was that Morrice did surprisingly well enough that he had a decent shot for the next election (which is now 2021), now that people can see he has more support than expected. Greens having more issues federally may negatively impact him, but I think his support in Kitchener Centre is separate from the party.
Saini doesn't have any big role in the federal government and I don't think he's any stronger this time around. Henein-Thorn is not an anti-abortion campaigner like Woodworth was, which may make some centrists more amenable to picking her. Zubi is what makes this harder to call: I don't know if she will take the riding but I think she may compete with Morrice as the left-leaning candidate of choice if people think she has a better chance. NDP also seem to have better mindshare this time which may translate into support, as do the Conservatives to some degree.
Ultimately, I expect Saini to do worse, Zubi to do better, Henein-Thorn to do about the same or better, and Morrice to do about the same or better. My guess is Saini might still end up taking it from a split of NDP and Green support but ultimately I think it could go to any of the four of them depending on how the math plays out.
16/08/21 marco
Morrice ran it decently close in 2019 and he's doing it now as a more experienced candidate and known quantity with better name recognition. Since he's putting himself forward as a candidate again, don't count him out once more because he's a strong, natural campaigner with a base to build from this time around, in spite of how poorly the Greens have been performing federally of late (even though, Paul will try to portray a united front in this campaign and heal the wounds of internal division). Too close to call, maybe tilt Liberal hold for now.
14/08/21 Lolitha
Mainstreet riding poll:
26% Liberal, 18% Conservative, 11% NDP, 14.3% Green. 27% Undecided.
12/08/21 Dr Bear
The dumpster fire that is the current Green Party will not be getting any new votes over what they had in 2019. I mean seriously, if you were a soft Liberal supporter, would you defect to that train wreck? No one in their right mind would. Rather, many voters who did vote for the local Green candidate (who did particularly well in 2019 and looked like he was in for a surprise upset a la Fredericton) will go elsewhere this time. It’s unfortunate, but unless there is a major change in the weeks to come, it will be true.
20/06/21 Chris N
I expect the Greens to do well here, but I think they have a lower ceiling than Guelph, where Mike Schreiner won their first provincial seat in 2018. Firstly, I think Kitchener Centre isn’t as ‘crunchy’ as Guelph. Also, Schreiner took many votes from disenchanted Liberals following their provincial collapse, and I don’t think the Greens can count on that in the next federal general. Lastly, the past month has been a PR disaster for Annamie Paul and the Greens, with an MP crossing the floor and front page headlines about inner party squabbles. Anything can happen until the next general, but I think Kitchener Center is leaning Liberal.
22/05/21 Kyle H
This should be a fun riding to watch. The Greens are rerunning their star candidate, Mike Morrice, nominating him early and hitting the ground running with a strong campaign. That doesn't mean its pointing to a flip, I'd say on the face of it this is a Liberal riding - but if Morrice can claim some momentum and coalesce opposition support... definitely TCTC for now.
08/08/21 A.S.
I would have allowed for Mike Morrice were it not for the Green implosion--and now, Kitchener Centre's looking even more paradoxically Guelph-like, in the ‘Libs likely prevailing over mutually self-cancelling opposition’ sense (and surely, by bearing the standard again, Morrice has got to get *something*, which'll only cement the self-cancellation) Though thanks to urban-rural sorting, what's clearly dead and gone is the notion of Kitchener as some kind of Lib/Con-swinging bellwether--the former CPC MP finishing 3rd behind Morrice in '19, and the NDP snatching the seat provincially in '18, being proof of that.

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