Election Prediction Project

Kingston and the Islands
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:04:41

Constituency Profile


Gerretsen, Mark

Khan, Waji

Oosterhof, Gary

Sahai, Vic

Sayle-Udall, Shelley


Mark Gerretsen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



355.75 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mark Gerretsen ** 3120545.80%
Barrington Walker 1585623.30%
Ruslan Yakoviychuk 1330419.50%
Candice Christmas 60598.90%
Andy Brooke 17692.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Gerretsen 3642155.40%
Andy Brooke 1492822.70%
Daniel Beals ** 1118517.00%
Nathan Townend 29334.50%
Luke McAllister 3050.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Kingston and the Islands
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ian Arthur 2178839.16%
Sophie Kiwala * 1531227.52%
Gary Bennett 1451226.08%
Robert Kiley 35746.42%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2240.48%

16/09/21 jpg
As Mark's father I find all the predictions amusing. after all everyone is more than entitled to their own opinion. However, factual information is essential. Mark's property management business has been built up over the last 25 years entirely by him. From the first property he bought when he was a 20 year old student he has personally with mostly his own labour improved each and every one of them. No one will out work him whether it is in construction or political campaigning and looking after his constituents. I respect everyone who puts their name up to run for office. It takes guts. 35 years for me in elected politics, municipally and provincially, has been one of the best things that happened in my lifetime. thanks to all candidates for putting your name on the ballot.
14/09/21 kingstonstudent
jeff316 is correct that the conditions are ripe for the NDP taking this by a hair, and regrettably, I think also correct that the Liberals will end up holding onto it. Gerretsen's, shall we say, lack of gravitas (he once confided to friend of mine that he would have run for the Conservatives in Kingston if they had a chance of winning) has definitely made him more unpopular than his party in Kingston, which is the inverse of what happened with widely respected past reps like Ted Hsu and Peter Milliken. Gary Oosterhof is definitely a step up from their candidate last time, although apart from the modesty of Conservative gains nationally it appears as if the Tories have hit a ceiling in Kingston - provincially, with former mayor Gary Bennett as their candidate in 2018 they only picked up 5 points, and that was without the PPC siphoning off their votes. He'll probably finish in the high teens again, since the PPC appear certain to improve on Andy Brooke's showing and all the old money in Kingston is wedded to Gerretsen personally and the Liberals politically. As for Vic Sahai, while he doesn't quite have Barrington Walker's energy he will almost certainly finish in at least a strong second. If the NDP's surge had continued and they had surpassed the Liberals nationally in 2011 fashion, then I would be calling it for him now. As it stands, the NDP's persistent 20% nationally means that at the very least he'll give Gerretsen a run for his money. His bemused responses to some of the PPC candidate's statements at the first all-candidate's debate were certainly endearing, and he's also picked up the endorsement of 2019 Green candidate Candice Christmas. Considering her strong performance last time and the near-death experience of the Greens this time (nationally and locally), Vic Sahai can afford to get his hopes up.
13/09/21 M K
While Vic Sahai could outperform Barrington Walker, and Gerretsen could underperform his 2019 win, I don't see it being enough for the NDP to win this seat as they did in 2018 provincially.
Conservatives are a non-factor here, especially with the CPC/PPC vote split.
Liberal hold.
09/09/21 jeff316
Oh Mark Gerretsen. Kingstonians like their representatives to have a certain something about them - a bit of depth, a bit of profile, a bit of panache, a la Peter Milliken, Ted Hsu, Flora McDonald - and the former property manager who rode his family's rental housing and MPP dad's name into local politics just doesn't have it. Conditions like these - weak MPP, tired Liberals, Conservative leader pitching himself as a red tory, urbane NDP - make this ripe for an NDP squeaker. But they just don't have the right candidate. Barrington Walker had that oomph but Vic Sahai does not. Hence why the riding relegated everyman NDPers like Beals, Downes, and Hutchison to third place time and time again. The Liberals will hold this.
08/09/21 R.O.
Mark Gerretsen was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. Riding has been liberal since the late 80’s. were a couple close liberal/cpc challenges in 2008-11 elections but it stayed liberal. the ndp seem to be doing a bit better here and somehow won the provincial riding of Kingston in 2018 election but have never come close federally . Cpc has a new candidate Gary Oosterhof a city councillor for Kingston but not really a riding there focused on.
07/09/21 AD
This riding is full of NDP signs, with a much smaller Liberal presence than normal.
Take that with the growth in the NDP in this riding shown by their dominant 2018 provincial win.
And add that to Gerretsen's absolute dismal performance as an MP and you have a riding that looks to go Orange federally.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Liberals will hold Kingston.
1) People do not want a 2 tier healthcare system. They want healthcare to be public. Kingston has a strong public healthcare system
2) People in Kingston are huge on education too , and the students will not fall for Otoole plans to weaker the climate change targets .
18/08/21 Bob
A Liberal win here is likley as Mark Gerretsen has represented the riding well. Mr. O'Toole pumps up his military experience but those who serve know how limited it really was. He won't get support from vets who remember his poor showing as Minister of Veteran Affairs.
29/05/21 Libby Burgundy
Kingston has voted Liberal at every election since 1984, even during the party's 2011 meltdown. While Erin O'Toole's military connections may give his party a boost here, we'd probably need to see significant shifts in the Ontario polling before we'd talk about the Liberals losing Kingston.
28/05/21 MF
Kingston was a Liberal holdout in the 2011 debacle. It has a major university and is a generally progressive place akin in many ways to Burlington, Vermont or Madison, Wisconsin. The NDP came in second place in the last federal election and won Kingston in the last provincial election. Even the surrounding rural/exurban areas are rather small-’l’ liberal in character (a good number of professors and retired professionals live there), and much less conservative than the rest of rural and small-town Eastern Ontario.
08/08/21 A.S.
2011 vs 2018 confirms that when it comes to K&TI, it's come to this: in case of Liberal party implosion, it's now likelier to default winningly to the left than to the right. And currently, the Jagmeet Dippers are well-poised to benefit from such an implosion. But in their turn, the Justin Liberals are well-poised to prevent such an implosion from taking place. And the armed forces presence is as likely to benefit the O'TooleCons this time as Queens U's ‘campus conservative’ rep has in the past, i.e. not at all.

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