Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-18 19:07:05

Constituency Profile


Herod, Roberta

Lozano, Sandra

Oprisan, Gilmar

Roberts, Anna

Schulte, Deb


Deb Schulte

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



426.39 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Deb Schulte ** 2872545.00%
Anna Roberts 2758443.20%
Emilio Bernardo-Ciddio 42976.70%
Ann Raney 25113.90%
Anton Strgacic 7311.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Deb Schulte 2590847.40%
Konstantin Toubis 2417044.20%
Natalie Rizzo 35716.50%
Ann Raney 10371.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1270.33%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (82.96% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (17.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Stephen Lecce 2913656.62%
Marilyn Iafrate 1201223.34%
Andrea Beal 792115.39%
Greg Locke 17543.41%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6271.83%

18/09/21 George
Mainstreet of September 16 has a strong liberal lead here.
03/09/21 MT
A life-long Liberal, I was impressed with Anna Roberts knocking at my door.
She was very real and down to earth. Answered all my questions as I hoped.
The riding is set up so discourage voting. (in my opinion)
I live in Vaughan but must travel 5km to vote. The Returning Office is 15km from me.
02/09/21 Predictions
Schulte held this one very narrowly in 2019. With the current drop in LPC numbers, despite her now being in Cabinet, I think she's toast. The ‘new money’ demographic does the Liberals no favours here.
31/08/21 R.O.
Deb Schulte was first elected here in 2015 and re elected in 2019 although both races were very close compared to other nearby ridings. Anna Roberts is back as the conservative candidate after a close race last election. This suburban area north of Toronto has typically seen close races between liberals and conservatives with very little ndp. But went for the provincial pc’s by a wide margin last election.
28/08/21 Matt B
There is massive anger at Trudeau specifically, within this riding. The protest at Nobleton just caused Trudeau to cancel his rally there due to protesters outnumbering supporters. Additionally, current in-riding polling puts the CPC candidate at 47% to the Liberals 39, with an 88% chance of winning. This one is a hard flip for sure.
27/08/21 KXS
I don't buy Mainstreet's regional distributions. It's hard to see the Liberals doing better in York than Peel.
Under the current polling trends in Ontario, this might be one of the Conservatives few pick ups in this province. Of course, there is still 3 weeks left in the campaign and the Liberals could gain momentum in the final weeks of the campaign.
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead of 14 points overall and regionally at 49% support in York Region. Given this, I think this is a Liberal hold with about the same margin of victory vs 2019. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
04/08/21 A.S.
Re local cabinet representation: it may be a riding where Italian seniors could decide the election, but it's also a riding where parents affected by Stephen Lecce's contentious Covid-era provincial education policy could decide the election. But just as much of an election-decider could be where the growth is--and Con-friendly places like King, Nobleton, and the Bathurst ‘Jewish Corridor’ are doing an awful lot of the growing. Which was enough to halve '15's already-tight share margin in '19--then again, the growth W of Kleinburg was more Lib-leaning, and I wouldn't be surprised if the existing Liberal areas dig more firmly into their Liberalism. All in all, a ‘work in progress’.
30/07/21 KXS
If the CPC is going to make any gains in Ontario, it will be in ridings like King-Vaughan.
Minister of Seniors Deb Schulte is conveniently the MP in a riding where Italian seniors will decide the election.
If we see the CPC consistently above 35% in Ontario, expect to see this more competitive.
07/08/21 MF
King-Vaughan is a high income suburban/exurban riding in York Region that lacks ‘Brahmin’ demographics. It's more rich than educated; not ‘elite’ in Fordian terms. I believe this was the highest non-winning CPC share in the country, so this could again be close.

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