Herod, Roberta
	Lozano, Sandra
	Oprisan, Gilmar
	Roberts, Anna
	Schulte, Deb
Incumbent:
	Deb Schulte

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			131995 109235 40349 39067 426.39 km² 309.60/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Deb Schulte **	28725	45.00%
	Anna Roberts	27584	43.20%
	Emilio Bernardo-Ciddio	4297	6.70%
	Ann Raney	2511	3.90%
	Anton Strgacic	731	1.10%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Deb Schulte	25908	47.40%
	Konstantin Toubis	24170	44.20%
	Natalie Rizzo	3571	6.50%
	Ann Raney	1037	1.90%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		22174	57.12%
		4779	12.31%
		10675	27.50%
		1063	2.74%
Other		127	0.33%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Vaughan    (82.96% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Oak Ridges-Markham    (17.04% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Stephen Lecce	29136	56.62%
	Marilyn Iafrate	12012	23.34%
	Andrea Beal	7921	15.39%
	Greg Locke	1754	3.41%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		17618	51.31%
		11084	32.28%
		3986	11.61%
		1022	2.98%
Other		627	1.83%

	18/09/21	George 161.184.30.62
Mainstreet of September 16 has a strong liberal lead here. https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/KingVaughan-iPolitics-17September2021.pdf
	03/09/21	MT 99.247.193.241
A life-long Liberal, I was impressed with Anna Roberts knocking at my door. She was very real and down to earth. Answered all my questions as I hoped. The riding is set up so discourage voting. (in my opinion) I live in Vaughan but must travel 5km to vote. The Returning Office is 15km from me.
	02/09/21	Predictions 70.31.104.47
Schulte held this one very narrowly in 2019. With the current drop in LPC numbers, despite her now being in Cabinet, I think she's toast. The ‘new money’ demographic does the Liberals no favours here.
	31/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Deb Schulte was first elected here in 2015 and re elected in 2019 although both races were very close compared to other nearby ridings. Anna Roberts is back as the conservative candidate after a close race last election. This suburban area north of Toronto has typically seen close races between liberals and conservatives with very little ndp. But went for the provincial pc’s by a wide margin last election.
	28/08/21	Matt B 174.112.6.162
There is massive anger at Trudeau specifically, within this riding. The protest at Nobleton just caused Trudeau to cancel his rally there due to protesters outnumbering supporters. Additionally, current in-riding polling puts the CPC candidate at 47% to the Liberals 39, with an 88% chance of winning. This one is a hard flip for sure.
	27/08/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
I don't buy Mainstreet's regional distributions. It's hard to see the Liberals doing better in York than Peel. Under the current polling trends in Ontario, this might be one of the Conservatives few pick ups in this province. Of course, there is still 3 weeks left in the campaign and the Liberals could gain momentum in the final weeks of the campaign.
	23/08/21	Drew613 198.103.96.11
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead of 14 points overall and regionally at 49% support in York Region. Given this, I think this is a Liberal hold with about the same margin of victory vs 2019. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Re local cabinet representation: it may be a riding where Italian seniors could decide the election, but it's also a riding where parents affected by Stephen Lecce's contentious Covid-era provincial education policy could decide the election. But just as much of an election-decider could be where the growth is--and Con-friendly places like King, Nobleton, and the Bathurst ‘Jewish Corridor’ are doing an awful lot of the growing. Which was enough to halve '15's already-tight share margin in '19--then again, the growth W of Kleinburg was more Lib-leaning, and I wouldn't be surprised if the existing Liberal areas dig more firmly into their Liberalism. All in all, a ‘work in progress’.
	30/07/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
If the CPC is going to make any gains in Ontario, it will be in ridings like King-Vaughan. Minister of Seniors Deb Schulte is conveniently the MP in a riding where Italian seniors will decide the election. If we see the CPC consistently above 35% in Ontario, expect to see this more competitive.
	07/08/21	MF 70.27.132.108
King-Vaughan is a high income suburban/exurban riding in York Region that lacks ‘Brahmin’ demographics. It's more rich than educated; not ‘elite’ in Fordian terms. I believe this was the highest non-winning CPC share in the country, so this could again be close.