Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:41:34

Constituency Profile


Coenraad, Melissa

McAndrew, Jennifer

Miller, Scott

Purdy, Jennifer

Sudds, Jenna


Karen McCrimmon

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



764.83 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Karen McCrimmon ** 2874643.10%
Justina McCaffrey 2436136.50%
Melissa Coenraad 831712.50%
Jennifer Purdy 43876.60%
Scott Miller 9611.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen McCrimmon 3247751.30%
Walter Pamic 2482939.20%
John Hansen 43136.80%
Andrew West 17042.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Merrilee Fullerton 2308943.19%
John Hansen 1559229.17%
Stephanie Maghnam 909017.01%
Andrew West 28275.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


16/09/21 Drew613
Nanos has come out with an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals back up to 40% support in the province. Liberal support is typically underestimated in Ottawa sub-samples. Cases in point the 2015 & 2019 federal and 2018 provincial elections, where for the latter 3 of 7 Liberal MPP survivors are from Ottawa. I think the Liberals will hold Kanata-Carleton, even if their vote share goes down, but I think the CPC vote share will go down too thanks to the PPC 'surge', especially in the rural parts of the riding heading towards Arnprior. Overall, I think the NCR will be status quo with the only blue around the Capital continuing to be in Carleton. https://www.cp24.com/news/housing-continues-to-top-covid-19-as-key-ballot-box-issue-for-gta-voters-poll-1.5586585
11/09/21 George Knox
Mainstreet has a close race, small liberal advantage.
10/09/21 R.O.
There was a mainstreet riding poll that shows a small liberal lead here although still close enough that it could go either way on election day. There numbers were - 39 % Jenna Sudds liberal , 35 Jennifer McAndrew cpc and 20 Melissa Coenraad ndp
09/09/21 Nick M.
Conservatives will get 22000 - 24000 votes, if voter turnout is low or high.
If Voter turnout is low, which I think it will be, that will hurt Liberal vote.
CPC pickup because I think voter turnout will be 65%.
05/09/21 Wildflower
I think with so many people disgusted at Otoole 2 tier healthcare proposal, and lack of action on climate chang, will cause some people to strategically vote Liberal .
Plus, Jenna Sudds is well known in the tech sector, and is working on the new Kanata tech hub that will create tons of jobs for techies in the future
02/09/21 Predictions
The rapid growth in Kanata, especially driven by the tech and public sectors, is good news for the Liberals. Losing McCrimmon is not. And like someone else said, Trudeau's (mis-)handling of Afghanistan does the Liberals no favours with the large military presence here, never mind that they no longer have an Afghanistan veteran as candidate. I'd say this one will be very close, whoever wins, so don't count out either party.
27/08/21 Kanata Carleton Denizon
Mainstreet has CPC at 37% nationwide and up in Ontario. Trendlines being what it is and KC being a bellwether Sudds will very likely have to return, defeated, to City Council. CPC McAndrew with a narrow win.
27/08/21 Jeff Wilson
The mood seems to have shifted. Sudds is not that popular given the lack of a transparent nomination process, and people aren't happy with Trudeau's campaign so far. There are a lot of military personnel in the area who are upset about Afghanistan. It's not so much love of the CPC but anger at the Liberals that is driving the current shift to the Conservatives.
24/08/21 Matt B
The signage seems to be an even mix of Liberal and CPC with CPC predominating in the Southern Bridlewood area and Liberals with more in the north. The incumbent candidate is not running and there was some anger at Sudds being declared by acclimation. This riding has traditionally gone between Lib and CPC - there is a slight edge to the CPC this time.
22/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as liberal mp Karen Mccrimmon isn’t running due to health reasons. Prior to her victory in 2015 it had been a conservative riding for years. although the suburban Kanata area of Ottawa has grown significantly in recent years so many new residents and homes built here. so a race between new cpc candidate Jennifer Mcandrew and liberal Jenna Sudds who had been a city councillor for area.
21/08/21 Dave Remis
I predicted before that Sudds would win… but the LPC campaign is listless and the CPC campaign has some good early momentum. Combine that with a wickedly popular NDP Leader and this riding is TCTC… but with the trend line showing a CPC pick-up. I guess that’s what happens when you call an election because your echo chamber tells you that you should. Hubris and arrogance will cost LPC Govt if the early days are any indication, and candidates like Sudds - who isn’t all that impressive - should be pulled down with them.
19/08/21 Richmond Ball
I work in one of the larger retailers in the area and I am very surprised to hear, for the first election I can remember, people openly talking. Many are angry that Sudds is running, and acclaimed at short notice. Not having been long in the role of councilor, after being practically acclaimed herself, she is abdicating her responsibilities to run for MP.
16/08/21 KXS
This part of suburban Ottawa has been slipping away from the Conservatives over the past decade. The race seemed closer in 2019 only due to an uptick of support for the NDP and Greens.
A generic Liberal candidate with modest name recognition like Jenna Sudds should be able to hold this seat for the red team.
09/08/21 Marco Ricci
Karen McCrimmon announced today that she will not seek re-election because of health challenges:
01/08/21 Dave Remis
If the rumours are true and McCrimmon is leaving, this riding is one to watch but given LPC polling it’ll stay red. It looks like Jenna Sudds, a haughty condescending mediocrity not even 3 years into her one term on council, will be appointed as the candidate by Trudeau, something orchestrated by McCrimmon. Jenna might pull it off thanks to Justin’s coattails but it would be to the detriment of the riding. There is something profoundly troubling when somebody applies for a job a couple years before, barely does anything for the ward and even then only if the mayor allows her to pipe up, and then decides she deserves a better gig. It is altogether fitting too that Jenna would have it handed to her without actually ever working for it — just like the 2018 municipal election when she was walked into the role by former Councillor Wilkinson’s endorsement. The CPC have put up a decent but largely unknown candidate in Jennifer McAndrew but whether that’ll be enough with the LPC polling north of 50% in Ontario is doubtful. Sudds doesn’t deserve the nomination or to be an MP, but it looks like the riding is going to have her crammed down their throats unless the CPC defy the odds or if the NDP candidate here is credible enough to run a decent campaign.
04/07/21 seasaw
Craig, you keep mentioning the well educated, urban, high income earners, as if the Liberals own this constituency, and for the most part you're right, this group have supported the Liberals since 1993.ln recent polls over 50% of this group indicated that they'll be voting Liberal, but a closer look at the polls indicates that Liberals aren't that safe, because when asked how likely are they to change their minds, a whopping 76% said they're very or somewhat likely to change and the big concerns of the group, debt and deficit, growing gap between the rich and the poor and housing affordability, all issues that the Libs get F- on. So, if O'toole can come up with a credible plan, we may see a reversal of 1993, if not, the group will just hold their noses and vote Liberal
23/06/21 Former Ontarian
Ludicrous that this riding is listed as TCTC. McCrimmon is a popular incumbent in a riding that is trending more urban, educated and environmentally conscious. Gone are the days where the rural areas, which were largely carved out due to re-drawing of the riding boundaries, delivered this seat to the CPC. Expect to see McCrimmon, whether the Libs hold government or head to Opposition benches, to win the riding by a similar margin as 2019. Should we see a Liberal majority government, I wouldn't be surprised to see her nudge above 50% as in 2015.
20/05/21 Craig
While Kanata-Carleton was fairly close in 2019, it is clear the trend continues to favour the Liberals. They continue to dominate among more affluent, highly educated voters who are predominant here. While they don't necessarily like higher taxes here, they certainly don't like social conservatism or (especially) populism. Karen McCrimmon should keep this seat solidly in her hands, even if West Carleton remains strongly Conservative. (After redistribution, Kanata will probably be its own riding and it will be even safer.)
In many ways, an excellent comparison could be made to Northern Virginia - say, Loudoun County or western Fairfax County - which have gone from strongly Republican to solidly Democratic in this century. This is not the same Kanata it was a generation ago either.
08/08/21 A.S.
The Ottawa area has tended to offer contrarian and potentially-foreshadowing results over the years--including Libs like McCrimmon more or less holding their own amidst the Iggy disaster in '11--so with that in mind, I'd keep a good eye on that reduced margin in '19 and whatever it might foretell (particularly given how it happened despite CPC candidate controversy). Though for whatever impression *that* superficially leaves, it's not like the Cons gained ground--in fact, they themselves lost nearly 3 points; what happened is that the combined NDP/Green share doubled. So whatever dynamic *here* might have been token carryover from '18's provincial result, the unforeseen awakening of the ONDP and reduction of the OLP to a third-party force. Still, it's tempting to look at suburban Ottawa as the kind of place where on the face of things, Erin O'Toole-style ‘classic Ontario model’ Conservative leadership would go over well--at least relatively speaking, maybe even in the same in-the-face-of-disaster fashion as Iggy-style Lib leadership in '11. And of course, the current Lib nomination apparent-clustereff doesn't help matters in *their* camp. (Don't they realize that West Carleton will always mean the Cons will be breathing down their shoulders?)

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