Election Prediction Project

Hamilton Mountain
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-03 10:57:50

Constituency Profile


Allen, Malcolm

Enos, Jim

Hepfner, Lisa

Miles, Al

Taylor, Chelsey

Urquhart, Dave


Scott Duvall

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



33.14 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Scott Duvall ** 1913536.10%
Bruno Uggenti 1605730.30%
Peter Dyakowski 1344325.40%
Dave Urquhart 31155.90%
Trevor Lee 7601.40%
Jim Enos 3300.60%
Richard Plett 1090.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Duvall 1814635.90%
Shaun Burt 1693333.50%
Al Miles 1299125.70%
Raheem Aman 12832.50%
Andrew James Caton 7631.50%
Jim Enos 4380.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3580.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Hamilton Mountain
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Monique Taylor * 2440654.58%
Esther Pauls 1289128.83%
Damin Starr 41349.24%
Dave Urquhart 23005.14%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5851.45%

19/09/21 Dr Bear
Made ya look!
I currently live in Hamilton and trust me, there is no love for Trudeau here (especially in my riding of Hamilton Centre). I think we will see a depressed Liberal vote in Old Hamilton (suburbs are a different story). One thing that I found striking up on the mountain is the amount of CPC support that there seems to be. While this will not translate into a CPC win (but I wouldn’t be surprised if the CPC came second; though to be clear I am still anticipating them being third), I think it shows that there is untapped conservative potential. Something that we will be discussing in a future election prediction-go-round.
19/09/21 jeff316
With the Liberal numbers soaring in Ontario and the grumbling about the NDP imposing an out-of-towner, this should flip. The adage from experienced campaigners is that signs don't vote, and if they do each Liberal sign is worth three votes to an NDP sign. Hamilton may project veins of orange, but at the federal level Hamilton Mountain has always been a knife-edge winner for the NDP and the conditions here are not good.
12/09/20 Chris N
I've heard rumours of some Liberal riding association in-fighting during and after the nomination, which could explain the apparent sluggish start out the gate for the Liberal campaign. I give the advantage to Allen and the NDP, but I still can't discount Hepfner's name recognition in an election campaign where people have been mostly tuned out.
09/09/21 Jake H.
This is a safe NDP hold. It looked like the Libs might make it interesting for a while but that has petered out and then some. It's an orange wave of signs.
Losing Scott Duvall to political retirement will hurt the NDP's support, but they've held this seat since 2008 and despite a new candidate they seem destined to hold onto this one, with current polls showing no real threat of a surprise Liberal win here. It'd be a shocker at this point.
The Conservatives seem to be a non-factor as usual in Hamilton, but I'm curious to see how many votes they get, as well as the Greens, on election night.
04/09/21 Hammer
If signs could vote....Allen would be planning his victory party. North of the Linc, I saw three Liberal signs among the NDP signs growing like weeds. Even on the south end of mountain, there's very few signs other than NDP. This could be deceptive; after all, who in Hamilton will admit to voting Conservative? However, its safe to say the NDP will prevail.
02/09/21 KXS
I don't think people who voted NDP in 2019 are going to suddenly vote Liberal in 2021 because their candidate Malcolm Allen represented a Niagara Region riding from 2008-2015.
The NDP is running a good campaign, their numbers are stronger in Ontario than they have been in 2015 and 2019. I see no reason why they will lose this seat this time around.
02/09/21 Predictions
The mountain is perennially competitive. The NDP is running a Welland transplant with no connection to the community, but he's run four campaigns before and is the kind of union dipper that Hamiltonians like.
Both Liberals and Tories have cause for optimism here. The GTA inflow is beneficial to both, particularly the Libs, while O'Toole's more moderate, even blue-collar conservatism could help the CPC here. Lisa Hepfner for the Libs isn't a half bad candidate, at least much better than Bruno Uggenti. But NDP roots run deep in the Hammer, and especially north of the parkway I expect a very strong NDP performance cancelling out the more Lib/Con south. NDP should be able to hold this one by a similar margin.
24/08/21 AJ V
This one will be close but the Liberals having best shot at winning in a longtime. While both Allen and Hepfner live in Welland and Oakville respectively there is a difference. Allen is virtually unknown to HamMtn voters and was handed the NDP nomination. Hepfner is well known and even though she currently lives in Oakville she has strong ties to the community, and ran in the Liberal nomination contest and won.
As a labour activist and leader, I am dumbfounded at how the NDP could not find, or chose to ignore, local councillors, community leaders and labour activists from across Hamilton - Evelyn Myrie, Marvin Ryder, Mary Long, Joshua Czerniga (who mysteriously withdrew) & Anthony Marco. They missed an opportunity to hang on to this one.
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals at 43% and with a 14 point lead in the GTA. The poll also had the NDP only at 25% in Hamilton. That means the NDP probably currently still have a slight edge in Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton Centre, a TCTC is appropriate at this point, unless a riding poll comes out. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
23/08/21 Hammer
The Rt Hon Adult made the very valid observation others are missing -- despite migration from elsewhere, Hamilton continues to vote NDP. Toronto migration doesn't equal Liberal migration. Many of the Toronto migrants are young people who've been priced out of their hometown -- they are very willing to vote to the left and with a strong NDP base already present, why not vote NDP. I'm always puzzled why Duvall couldn't reach 40% while his provincial counterpart was over 50%. It will be interesting to see the two parachute candidates fight it out but the NDP have the advantage. The Conservatives won't score over 25% in an urban Hamilton riding.
19/08/21 Rt. Hon. Adult
Every federal and provincial election for the past 15 years here, we come back to ask if -- mayhaps -- this is the year that someone knocks off the NDP from their perch on the escarpment.
The fact of the matter is that redistricting in 2015 made this more Dipper-friendly and, as the last provincial election showed, Hamilton is still strongly anti-establishment at its heart (see also Ancaster in 2019).
This does not mean that the riding won't be close, but the best hope that that Grits or Tories had five years ago were an injection of yuppies into the south of the riding tilting the balance; in reality, these new areas are just reinforcing the orange fortress.
17/08/21 Chris N
The Liberals have nominated Lisa Hepfner, a CHCH news anchor, for Hamilton Mountain. Like the NDP's Malcolm Allen, she is a parachute candidate (she lives in Oakville), which could give some juice to the CPC candidate, but likely not enough to compete with the Liberals and NDP. With no incumbent in three Hamilton area ridings, expect a lot of visits from Trudeau to the Hammer over the next month.
18/08/21 Hammer
Another CHCH journalist? It worked for Donna Skelley and the provincial Conservatives. This just got interesting.
17/08/21 Born&Bred
Looks like the NDP campaign is off to a strong start. Cons and Libs nowhere to be seen. The new Liberal candidate is from Oakville. I wonder how the Liberal trolls feel about that!!??
ï»؟17/08 Chris N
The Liberals have nominated Lisa Hepfner, a CHCH news anchor, for Hamilton Mountain. Like the NDP's Malcolm Allen, she is a parachute candidate (she lives in Oakville), which could give some juice to the CPC candidate, but likely not enough to compete with the Liberals and NDP. With no incumbent in three Hamilton area ridings, expect a lot of visits from Trudeau to the Hammer over the next month.
17/08/21 ME
According to a local poll Allen has a 20 point lead in this riding...
16/08/21 jeff316
A riding with an NDP apparatus as strong as this shouldn't need a parachute candidate. Local voters will not take well to receiving a failed Niagara MP and Duvall's support for Allen is perplexing. Duvall was a well-respected local councillor and still only won his two elections with 35% of the vote. Liberals should win this one.
06/08/21 A.S.
It's worth noting that Malcolm Allen is a repeat parachute: he had been a town councillor just across the border in Pelham prior to being elected in Welland. Duvall was lucky in '15; and incumbency was his ticket to survival in '19. But btw/that and Monique Taylor provincially, the local Dippers have been bequeathed with a nice machine to work from--of course, keeping in mind Windsor in '19, it's also possible that the Libs can ‘pull an Irek’ in this open-seat circumstance.
04/07/21 seasaw
This one could go Liberal, could stay NDP, it can even go Conservative if the stars align. Not only too early but also too hard to predict this one.
26/06/21 Hammer
Somebody is really pushing Allen. As much as I like the NDP to have a clean slate, why Allen? He appears to be a good community minded candidate but for Welland/Niagara Centre. Without a connection to the mountain, voter turnout/enthusiasm will be a problem for him. Despite any polling numbers, you actually have to convince people to take the time to go and vote. It will be interesting to see who the Liberals find; if the Liberal candidate is local and prominent, it could get interesting.
14/06/21 ME
Allen is expanding his lead and now leads by 13 points with 338 saying he is likely to win.
31/05/21 ME
A local poll in Hamilton Mt shows the NDP with a 9 point lead...and 338 says a likely NDP win
27/05/21 Chris N
NDP incumbent Scott Duvall will not run next election. Former Welland MP Malcolm Allen is seeking the NDP nomination, leading to some criticism that he is a parachute candidate. If history is any indication, this will likely be a NDP vs Liberal race, although the Conservatives have some pockets of support in the suburban riding.
I think the NDP will retain this seat. The Liberals tried hard to flip it in 2019 and still came up short.
23/05/21 ME
Malcolm Allen who used to be a MP in Welland (Niagara Centre) will now contest the nomination in Hamilton Mt. He is a parachute but a veteran NDP MP and I suspect will likely win the riding
08/05/21 Chris N
NDP incumbent Scott Duvall has stated that he will not run in the next election. This could make the race wide open.
06/08/21 Born&Bred
The NDP will hold this seat easily with Malcolm Allen. Liberals should do ok, but locally are in disarray. Looks like Libs will pass over their 2019 candidate and appoint someone from out of the riding. Probably a good idea for them to put their energy elsewhere. Cons serving up a previous candidate who will hold the fort but not excite anyone.
06/08/21 Yvonne
Based on the current poll numbers this one will likely slide over to the Liberals in what has been a three-way race.
Having a parachute candidate who was MP from Welland who went shopping for an easier riding after losing his in 2015 and doing worse in 2019 will not do the NDP any favours.
The Conservatives would have a shot if O'Toole wasn't dragging the party down.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster