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Hamilton Mountain
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:20:14
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Incumbent:

Scott Duvall

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

104877
103615

40902
40028

33.14 km²
3164.80/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Scott Duvall ** 1913536.10%
Bruno Uggenti 1605730.30%
Peter Dyakowski 1344325.40%
Dave Urquhart 31155.90%
Trevor Lee 7601.40%
Jim Enos 3300.60%
Richard Plett 1090.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Duvall 1814635.90%
Shaun Burt 1693333.50%
Al Miles 1299125.70%
Raheem Aman 12832.50%
Andrew James Caton 7631.50%
Jim Enos 4380.90%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1453532.29%
2180648.45%
704115.64%
12702.82%
Other 3580.80%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Hamilton Mountain
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Monique Taylor * 2440654.58%
Esther Pauls 1289128.83%
Damin Starr 41349.24%
Dave Urquhart 23005.14%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1134328.06%
709917.56%
1964948.61%
17504.33%
Other 5851.45%


31/05/21 ME
45.72.200.7
A local poll in Hamilton Mt shows the NDP with a 9 point lead...and 338 says a likely NDP win
27/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
NDP incumbent Scott Duvall will not run next election. Former Welland MP Malcolm Allen is seeking the NDP nomination, leading to some criticism that he is a parachute candidate. If history is any indication, this will likely be a NDP vs Liberal race, although the Conservatives have some pockets of support in the suburban riding.
26/05/21
99.226.172.248
I think the NDP will retain this seat. The Liberals tried hard to flip it in 2019 and still came up short.
23/05/21 ME
45.72.200.7
Malcolm Allen who used to be a MP in Welland (Niagara Centre) will now contest the nomination in Hamilton Mt. He is a parachute but a veteran NDP MP and I suspect will likely win the riding
08/05/21 Chris N
69.77.168.248
NDP incumbent Scott Duvall has stated that he will not run in the next election. This could make the race wide open.



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