Election Prediction Project

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:39:08

Constituency Profile


Collins, Chad

Kuruc, Ned

Milanovic, Nick

Pattison, Larry

Ricci, Mario


Bob Bratina

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



67.40 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bob Bratina ** 2011238.60%
Nick Milanovic 1493028.60%
Nikki Kaur 1313025.20%
Peter Ormond 29025.60%
Charles Crocker 10722.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bob Bratina 1962239.00%
Wayne Marston ** 1646532.70%
Diane Bubanko 1271525.30%
Erin Davis 13052.60%
Bob Mann 1700.30%
Wendell Fields 550.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 10752.40%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Paul Miller * 2251851.15%
Akash Grewal 1268428.81%
Jennifer Stebbing 532012.09%
Brian Munroe 18844.28%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8692.21%

19/09/21 Dr Bear
I currently live in Hamilton (Hamilton Centre) and I can tell you that there is no love for Trudeau in ‘Old’ Hamilton. However there is begrudging support for him in the suburbs, which gives the Liberals a base in Stoney Creek. What will bring them over the top in this seat is the personal appeal of the candidate. A well known city councillor that will bring enough name recognition to save this seat (and he is less controversial that Bratina was). While the NDP are polling up relative to 2019, they have a nasty habit of not GOTV and doing less well than expected. Nevertheless, expect a close race and a nail biter. Also expect to see residual CPC support, much like I talked about in my post for Hamilton Mountain. I think we will be discussion tgat in future electionpredictions-go-rounds.
17/09/21 jeff316
Given the Liberals flirting with majority territory, the NDP stalled, and the Liberals running a councillor so well known that he is oftened referred to on a first name basis around here, this won't be all that close.
11/09/21 George Knox
Mainstreet confirms close race - a three-way race between main parties. 20% undecided.
04/09/21 Nick M.
I believe the Liberal Incumbent is not running in protest. His constituents were cut out of the public transportation project. He was even blind sided by the announcement.
Think many constituents feel the same way.
NDP gain.
04/09/21 Matt B.
I think people are underestimating the local popularity of the Liberal candidate Chad Collins - a wise choice of candidate by the Liberals after the departure of Bob Bratina. Chad Collins has been the Ward 5 Councillor for over 2 decades, having been elected when he was in his early 20s. (Ward 5 overlaps Hamilton-East Stoney Creek). He is *immensely* popular and a one-man institution who has grown with his constituents over a long period of time. This local race is the kind of race where the individual matters, and Chad would be competitive running for any party, or even as an independent. It's a tight two-way race between the Liberals and NDP right now, with the NDP up slightly, but I believe that the ‘Chad Factor’ will allow the Liberals to retain this riding in the end.
02/09/21 Predictions
This one I'd say is a ‘2-and-a-half way race’, in that the NDP and Libs are competitive and the Tories could be competitive but it would require something extra. Stoney Creek is more Lib/Con, while the ‘Hamilton East’ part, west of the parkway, is an NDP stronghold like neighbouring Hamilton Centre. The NDP's Milanovic probably has a slight upper hand here, but don't count out the Liberals who are running a local councillor. CPC pickup is unlikely, but in the event of a blue wave, definitely possible.
31/08/21 R.O.
One of the more realistic possible ndp pick ups would have to be this riding now that Bob Brattia isn’t running again. This riding has an ndp history as it was ndp from 2006-15 and provincially ndp by large margins in past elections. The liberals have found a city councillor to be there candidate , Chad Collins but not sure that be enough. As the ndp seem to be doing better this election and there past candidate Nick Milanovic was back. Also a significant conservative presence here as they’ve got 25% of the vote in the past couple elections when the cpc wasn’t even that strong in this area.
18/08/21 Hammer
Chad Collins as nominee will give Liberals the edge.
16/08/21 jeff316
Brantina's opposition to LRT was more about realising he was never going to be in Cabinet and staking a position for a future municipal return. He was always the seat warmer for Chad Collins and now the Liberals have the candidate they preferred for 2015 anyway. Milanovic is a successful guy but as a lawyer/professor/thinker is a weird match for a riding like this. Easy hold.
06/08/21 A.S.
One thing that Bob Bratina's time in Ottawa had a way of backhandedly proving is that suburban Stoney Creek always felt strangely ‘inorganic’ as part of an NDP riding (and the shaving away of part of Hamilton's East End in 2015's redistribution didn't help). Still, Paul Taylor has made it work provincially, and as an open seat w/Milanovic running again and greater Jagmeet-camp ballast, it remains top-targetable. Or at least, likelier to go orange than any Toronto seat save Davenport.
09/07/21 Chris N
The NDP have nominated their former candidate from 2019, labour lawyer Nick Milanovic. No word yet on the new Liberal candidate.
26/06/21 Hammer
I'm waiting for the NDP candidate before predicting anything. The LRT is a strange hill to die on -- billions of dollars in infrastructure (sewers, bridges, sidewalks, etc) and you oppose it because..... I couldn't care less if not a single LRT train makes a run, I'm happy to see the province and federal gov'ts spend money on infrastructure in the lower city (since we didn't vote for either gov't). Then again Bratina is from a bygone era. He may run for a mayor again on the same single issue of LRT. Hopefully he finds the pension sufficient and lets Hamilton move on. As for the election, with Bratina gone and demographics gnawing at the Hamilton Liberals, the NDP should be favoured.
27/05/21 Chris N
Incumbent Liberal MP and former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina has said he won’t run again, due to his disagreement with the Trudeau government’s support for the Hamilton LRT. The NDP held the riding from 2006 to 2015, before the Liberals won during the 2015 Trudeau wave. I expect that the NDP has this riding high on the list of possible pick-ups next election.

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