Election Prediction Project

Hamilton Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:20:06

Constituency Profile


Barber, Kevin

Bennett, Margaret

Cheriyan, Nigel

Green, Matthew

Grenning, Fabian

Weinstein, Avra Caroline

Yan, Nathalie Xian Yi


Matthew Green

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.22 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Matthew Green 2036846.20%
Jasper Kujavsky 1265128.70%
Monica Ciriello 634114.40%
Jason Lopez 33707.60%
Melina Mamone 8331.90%
Gary Duyzer 1820.40%
Tony Lemma 1580.40%
Edward Graydon 1340.30%
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan 850.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Christopherson ** 1871945.60%
Anne Tennier 1371833.40%
Yonatan Rozenszajn 601814.60%
Ute Schmid-Jones 17784.30%
Michael James Baldasaro 3480.80%
Rob Young 3160.80%
Maria Anastasiou 1860.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9252.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Hamilton Centre
   (90.25% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   (9.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Andrea Horwath * 2386665.25%
Dionne Duncan 573015.67%
Deirdre Pike 398210.89%
Jason Lopez 21025.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4891.64%

19/09/21 Dr Bear
My current riding and where I will be voting. It will be an easy NDP win, but….
I have said in previous election prediction-go-rounds that this seat is growing, becoming more affluent and gentrification setting in. There is a clear, growing liberal (small l) presence that could turn this seat. In fact, I think it would have flipped in 2015 if David Christopherson retired that year, or in 2019 if Anne Tennier ran in that race. Recall that Anne was unwell in 2019 and her health barred her from campaigning. The Liberals waited to select their candidate and Kujavsky was not named until after the writ was dropped. I think that actually hurt their chances in 2019. But enough of the past, into the present…
The one and only candidate that bothered to knock on my door was the Liberal candidate, Margaret Bennett. She struck me as on the ball, and particularly hardworking. I think she will keep the Liberals in second place.
The impressions I got from the other candidates stem from the local debate. Both Matthew Green and Margaret Bennett were well prepared and had a strong debate showing. The Conservative candidate was clearly out of his league and fumbled on easy questions (he actually said ‘pass’ when asked how his party differs from the PPC! OMG!). If he is that I’ll-prepared for a debate, I can only imagine how he is phoning in his campaign. Then there was the Green candidate who sounded like she was stoned! (Seriously, go watch it! She was jabbering on about flying cars and Apollo 13! The only question she had for Matthew Green was about why there are no lockers in homeless shelters!) Anyways, with local CPC and Green disorganization, both parties will have ‘also ran’ status.
The party that I am very curious about is the PPC. There are a lot of signs for them and polling shows a significant level of support for them in the region. I would not be surprised if they came in third.
Bottom line, I think it will be an NDP hold mostly on the fact that people here are just used to voting for them. The Liberal second place will be respectable because if Bennett’s hard work, followed by a CPC/PPC fight for third.
19/09/21 jeff316
Liberals love to point to the influx of well-off Toronto house-price ‘refugees’ as the reason that Hamilton Centre is rip for an NDP loss. But what they miss is that those people moving to Hamilton are generally NDP friendly, vacating organgeish locales like Parkdale, Wet Bloor, St Clair West, etc., and are often suspiciously quick to adorn themselves in the Hammer's more working-class roots - a part of which is this riding's NDPness. The rise of the Liberals to near-majority territory may eat into Green's popularity but it will take nuclear-level NDP losses to see this one flip.
14/09/21 R.O.
This riding has been ndp federally since 2004 and held by Andrea Horwath provincially , Matthew Green is only a one term mp but a strong ndp area .
12/09/20 Chris N
Four months after my first prediction, it is very clear that the NDP is in the driver's seat in Hamilton Centre. Matthew Green signs probably outnumber Liberal signs by 10:1. I anticipate that the NDP will improve on their 2019 results, probably hitting 50% or higher. Speaking of signs, for an urban riding, there are a surprising amount of PPC purple on front lawns. It'll be interesting to see if the PPC can finish fourth ahead of the Green Party, who have been invisible relative to 2019.
11/09/21 Hamiltonian
Barely any liberal sign presence in the riding. NDP signs are much more frequently seen. A spike in PPC and Conservative signs. Liberals ran a candidate with no name recognition and less community connection. Solid NDP Stronghold.
18/08/21 Hammer
Liberal wave? Little resistance? In 2015, the Liberals had a solid community minded candidate and could only amass 33% in a year in which Trudeau was popular. Bennett looks like a good candidate but as a Toronto transplant and no love for Trudeau in the riding 33% is probably a reach for her.
06/08/21 A.S.
Re ‘Liberal wave’ potential: sure, they *could*. But let's face facts; the Libs haven't come within 10 points of the NDP *once* since the modern Dipper-incumbency era began in Hamilton Centre in 2004--not even in 2015's version of a ‘Liberal wave’. And you might as well project said precarious NDP position nation-wide, and point to the AudreyAlexa era as proof. In the meantime, w/Jagmeet's leadership riding high, count it in as safe, *period*.
28/07/21 Stevo
This is the safest NDP seat in Ontario, but it's indicative of just how precarious the NDP is in this province that it isn't even THAT safe. Safest seat relatively speaking, but a Liberal wave has the potential to wash over it with little resistance.
26/06/21 Hammer
Green has his detractors but even they will still vote for him. There's really no contest. The question similar to last time --- will he crack 50%?
07/05/21 Chris N
There was some speculation in 2019 after David Christopherson stepped down that this riding might be competitive for the Liberals. Despite a strong Liberal result in the Golden Horseshoe, Matthew Green kept the riding orange, even slightly performing above Christopherson in 2015. This is a safe NDP seat.

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