Election Prediction Project

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-07 23:09:13

Constituency Profile


Balfour, Gene

Davidson, Alison

Forbes, Judi

Godsoe, Angel

Miller, Zac

Schmale, Jamie


Jamie Schmale

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7890.12 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jamie Schmale ** 3225749.10%
Judi Forbes 1706726.00%
Barbara Doyle 967614.70%
Elizabeth Fraser 55158.40%
Gene Balfour 12451.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jamie Schmale 2771844.80%
David Marquis 1963431.80%
Mike Perry 1201219.40%
Bill MacCallum 24704.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Laurie Scott * 3240656.71%
Zac Miller 1514226.5%
Brooklynne Cramp-Waldinsperger 56559.9%
Lynn Therien 25514.46%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


04/09/21 JC
Demographics are changing, but not sure that will make it become more viable for the Liberals this election. CPC hold
03/09/21 R.O.
Jamie Schmale was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019 in this rural conservative leaning riding which has been cpc since 2004. Judi Forbes is back as the liberal candidate and 2018 provincial ndp candidate Zac Miller for ndp .likely to stay cpc
24/08/21 Rural Roots
While I have no doubt Schmale will prevail once again,I will be monitoring his plurality. The demographics oi this riding are gradually changing.There is an influx of folks from 416 & 905 moving to Lindsay & other towns,which over time could shift the balance of power. Also unlike the Liberal candidate, the CPC campaign office is not on a main street in Lindsay. will he break the 50% barrier?I'm not sure.
08/08/21 A.S.
Central Ontario Heartland Conservative bedrock, ho hum. The sort of place where last time around, one of the entries posited a failure to reach 50% as an ‘only possible upset’. Yeah, sarcastically speaking, I guess such an upset hit Schmale--but hey, the voters had several alternatives, distribute the vote around, etc. (And the CPC/PPC united-right would have crossed the majority threshold, anyway.)
07/08/21 Dr Bear
Easy Conservative hold, it almost requires no mention.
06/08/21 J.F. Breton
Circonscription rurale de l'Ontario de tradition conservatrice. Peu de risque pour le député conservateur sortant, comme en font foi les dernières majorités.
06/08/21 Branden
Fairly safe Conservative seat with the incumbent running again, even during the Liberal wave of 2015 he won by 13%. Unless the Conservative support collapses in rural Ontario they'll win this riding comfortably.

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