Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:29:10

Constituency Profile


Gilpin, Ken

Lewis, Leslyn

Lugosi, Charles

Matthews, Karen

McMorrow, George

Piironen, Meghan


Diane Finley

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2859.09 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Diane Finley ** 2801846.80%
Kim Huffman 1470424.50%
Adrienne Roberts 919215.30%
Brooke Martin 48788.10%
Bob Forbes 12342.10%
Harold Stewart 10831.80%
Lily Eggink 8171.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Diane Finley ** 2471444.10%
Joan Mouland 2048736.60%
John Harris 762513.60%
Wayne Ettinger 18573.30%
Dave Bylsma 8841.60%
Dustin Wakeford 2720.50%
Leslie Bory 1510.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4350.86%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Toby Barrett * 2888957.1%
Danielle Du Sablon 1360926.9%
Dan Matten 46569.2%
Anne Faulkner 20954.14%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


18/09/21 OgtheDim
There WILL be some PPC intake from the Tories here as this is the heartland of the anti-lockdown movement - see the recent MOH appointment.
BTW, the idea that PPC pulls from Libs & NDP equally is wishful thinking - if anything, if its not Tories, its from the Greens. EKOS has good data on this.
But if there is one riding in Ontario where you vote as you always have & not going to change, its this one.
Tory hold, if somewhat reduced.
Now, if a PPC star would to somehow emerge from among the anti-lockdown types, somebody beyond Bernier, & wanted a riding to try for in the next election, this might be a good one. But, without name recognition, PPC ain't winning here.
12/09/20 Rt. Hon. Adult
Wildflower, at least try a little bit to be credible. The way you write about these ridings, there are 36 million Canadians (yup, I'm including the kids) fomenting at the mouth to elect an NDP government with Green Official Opposition.
The math just ain't there this year for Haldimand-Norfolk to go anything but Tory!
05/09/21 Wildflower
Usually Conservatives win this riding. But this time with the right wing vote splitting , it would not surprise me if Liberals or NDP come up through the middle. Some people are opposed to having a 2 tier healthcare system , and want more action on climate change
mark this one as a toss up
15/08/21 R.O.
Are some interesting open ridings in Ontario this year but this one likely to stay cpc . Diane Finley has left and Leslyn Lewis is the new candidate for the cpc . they’ve generally held onto there open rural seats in Ontario and could of easily held this riding in a by election had one occurred.
31/07/21 Stevo
Yes, Dr. Lewis is a blatant parachute candidate. But in all of Canadian electoral history it never really seems to matter - has any candidate ever lost strictly due to local anger over a parachute candidate? I can only think of one example, John Tory losing the Haliburton byelection as provincial PC leader in 2009. But then, there were other leadership issues that contributed to that loss. I think Dr. Lewis will fit this riding like a glove and should have no difficulty winning over the locals.
13/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
This should be a very interesting race. On the surface it would seem a very safe conservative seat in which a social conservative would do very well, however there is a lot of anti-toronto sentiment locally, and they aren't particularly happy about having someone parachuted in. Should be a lot closer than it was in 2019, I'll update my prediction once I can check out the sign war.
08/08/21 A.S.
Of course, one assumes some of that ‘anti-Toronto sentiment’ would be racialized--then again, if race were such a factor, Lewis wouldn't have done as locally well as she did in the leadership race (and indeed, her supporters would be the sort who'd proudly gloat ‘Racist? Not us’). It's about the *issues*, you see. (Indeed, one might argue that Diane Finley's shares over the years were pressed low by a form of ‘anti-Toronto sentiment’; that is, she carried more boardroom-hackishness through her Senator/party operator husband than her provincial counterpart Toby Barrett.)

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