Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:58:27

Constituency Profile


Bowman, Michelle

Dineen, Tristan

Jahangir, Aisha

Leier, Joshua

Levenson, Karen

Longfield, Lloyd

Sachan, Ashish


Lloyd Longfield

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



87.22 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Lloyd Longfield ** 3049740.40%
Steve Dyck 1923625.50%
Ashish Sachan 1456819.30%
Aisha Jahangir 929712.30%
Mark Paralovos 10871.40%
Gordon Truscott 4980.70%
Juanita Burnett 1660.20%
Michael Wassilyn 1330.20%
Kornelis Klevering 860.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lloyd Longfield 3430349.10%
Gloria Kovach 1840726.30%
Andrew Seagram 839212.00%
Gord Miller 790911.30%
Alexander Fekri 5200.70%
Kornelis Klevering 1930.30%
Tristan Dineen 1440.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5830.98%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Mike Schreiner 2908245.03%
Ray Ferraro 1408421.81%
Agnieszka Mlynarz 1392921.57%
Sly Castaldi 653710.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3480.66%

18/09/21 prognosticator15
There is something strangely symbolically attractive in Guelph not just for Libs but also for the Greens and the CPC, in the latter case even in spite of the fact it has moved away from its past pro-Cons image of a high-quality livable midsize town close enough to Toronto yet spacious and nice. Urbanization by progressive interests, like in many other midsize places, has over the years made it less spacious, quite a bit uglier and celebrated by urban intensification bosses/academe as being more 'progressive', even utopian green. But it is the University that casts the greatest shadow on it as in other similar ridings, with concentration of academics, staff and lots of dependent services living here viewing Libs as their servants of redistribution to public sector. With such a stable and expanding Lib vote base, few changes are expected this time. Unlike in much of Southwestern (as well as Eastern) Ontario, there is no strong 'all-but-Liberals' feeling in Guelph in this election, not even in favor of other progressives, and much like in other large and expanding University-dominated ridings, Lib voting base is stable in support of revolving-door ruling oligarchy of academic indoctrinators (on whom Libs also depend on ideas), authoritarian progressive political mediators, and numerous, often also academe-linked public pecuniary interests. This streak is more important than other political trends here, and there is no political space for another Green challenge a la 2018 provincial this time - that happens only if Libs are perceived as clearly losing nationally (which is unclear this time), and another left oligarchy-sponsored party needs to step in to suck the votes of the indoctrinated and of the pecuniary interests. Longfield health and activities matter little as long as stable base exists that votes for Lib label (a base increasing over time and arguably more stable today than under a more colourful politician Valeriote), and I have to agree with progressivist observer A.S. that foreign issues like human rights in China hardly ever decide elections (in Canada even less than in the USA, by and large). NDP is weak here, and student vote is transitory and less significant than the vote of permanently-linked UoGuelph interests - as it is nearly everywhere in University-dominated areas. If Cons win in a Guelph upset (by still putting at least some weight on the ideas of freedom), I should be qualifying ideas on the power of statist oligarchy, but this outcome is only a distant prospect in a large University-dominated riding in 2021.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Liberals will keep this seat.
1) They want more action on climate change, and Otoole plans will weaken the climate change targets . Since the Greens leader wont campaign outside of Toronto, I think some Greens will vote Liberal this time around in this election
2) Nobody wants a 2 tier healthcare system
04/09/21 seasaw
@A.S, First off, show some respect, we're not Guelphians, we're Guelphites, and the Uyghur genocide doesn't have to be a kitchen table discussion. But you hit the nail right in the head when you mentioned why the Liberals have been winning in this previously bellwether riding. In '08,the local Tories had nominated a candidate, but the central campaign fired him and replaced him with their own candidate, that was the year that the Liberal candidate won by only 32% of the vote, but that's history, that was then, this is now. This year Mr Trudeau wasn't very popular here to begin with, and now he is even less popular for calling an unnecessary election, people are mad, but are they mad enough not to vote for him? Then there's the question about Lloyd's health, he recently went through a triple bypass. Which brings up the next question, how low can the Liberals go? It can very easily be 25% this time, if Lloyd gets 25%,the PPC candidate gets 7 and the CPC, Green and NDP get in low 20's, then Lloyd can keep this seat with 25%
24/05/21 seasaw
Though I do agree with the previous poster that the Liberals are on the driver's seat here, l wouldn't say that this is a sure thing for them. The difference between now and 10 years ago is that back then, the MP was Valeriote, a man from a prominent family and a hardworking constituency man. Now the MP is Longfield, mostly invisible and a government rubber stamp. His decision to abstain from voting for Uygur genocide, along with his controversial comments on this issue and the pandemic may come back to haunt him, or, since we don't know when the next vote will be, maybe forgotten. Also, Justin Trudeau isn't terribly popular in this neck of the woods these days, but that may also change.
09/05/21 Chris N
After Mike Schreiner's win for the Ontario Greens in 2018, some thought the Greens could win the riding federally in 2019. However, Guelph has historically been a federal Liberal stronghold. Even during the 2011 Ignatieff collapse, the Liberals were able to hold on to Guelph. I expect the same next election, in what will likely be a more favorable climate for the Liberals than 2011.
08/08/21 A.S.
I suspect that the Uyghur genocide is of minimal kitchen-table concern to most Guelphians. Longfield was already ‘punished’ for his rubber-stampiness through a 9-point slide in share in '19; but that was only because the Greens were invigorated through national momentum and Mike Schreiner. With the national Greens in the process of implosion and with the Cons sinking below the 20% threshold in '19, who knows--we might even see the NDP default into 2nd place in Guelph (hey, Jagmeetmania among younger demos meant they were already 2nd on the U of Guelph campus in '19, so take that as a warning of something Millennial-and-beyond ominous). But it also demonstrates something else: that what sustains the Libs in Guelph is favourable splits (reinforced by the increasing local weakness of the other ‘natural governing party’), not monolithic support per se. They haven't had a majority once since their present-day string in office began in '93, and in fact low 40s is something of a ‘mean’ for the party (*all* of Liz Sandals' provincial victories fell within that range). And of course, Frank Valeriote's 32% in '08 as a demonstration of how-low-can-you-go...

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