Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-03 16:38:40

Constituency Profile


Austring, Brennan

Bisaillon, Marc

Drouin, Francis

Joker, The

Lapierre, Daniel

Malakos, Konstantine

McArthur, Susan


Francis Drouin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2909.20 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Francis Drouin ** 3129347.60%
Pierre Lemieux 2366036.00%
Konstantine Malakos 685110.40%
Marthe Lépine 21133.20%
Jean-Jacques Desgranges 11741.80%
Darcy Neal Donnelly 2620.40%
Daniel John Fey 2390.40%
Marc-Antoine Gagnier 1990.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Francis Drouin 3418953.30%
Pierre Lemieux ** 2336736.40%
Normand Laurin 50877.90%
Genevieve Malouin-Diraddo 11531.80%
Jean-Serge Brisson 3770.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1870.34%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Amanda Simard 1995240.98%
Pierre Leroux 1540931.65%
Bonnie Jean-Louis 1061021.79%
Daniel Bruce Reid 14272.93%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 9182.03%

26/08/21 Ian
The CPC riding association should have known of the party's rule that Lemmoux, having lost 2 elections in row, would not be able to run again. Yet they dawdled. Party central had no choice but to step in at the last moment.
McArthur is a star candidate with an uphill struggle.
23/08/21 Drew613
The CPC just hand-picked an out-of-riding and out-of-province anglophone from the anglophone enclave of Hudson, QC...and who works in Toronto. In the only francophone majority riding in Ontario, this surely won't play well. While there wasn't much doubt to begin with, this will be an easy hold for the Liberals as a result.
01/08/21 Dr Bear
While no longer giving the Saddam Hussein levels of support that the Liberal got with Don Boudria, GPR is the safest seat for them in rural Eastern Ontario. I suspect it will go for team red once again fairly easily.
31/07/21 Thomas K
The Liberals won by a comfortable margin here in 2019. In addition, Francis Drouin seems quite active in the constituency, and even voted against the Liberals in amending the carbon tax for a farming fuel exemption. Very likely a Liberal hold.
08/08/21 A.S.
Those Franco-Ontarian ancestral Liberal allegiances just refuse to be steamrollered in GPR--indeed, they've probably been augmented by a ‘Greater Ottawa bedroom community’ element: Orleans East, so to speak. Still, this is as close as Southern Ontario comes to a remaining ‘rural farm Liberal’ riding; and it wouldn't be so were it not for Franco-Ontario. Though give Pierre Lemieux credit for having the gumption to stake out a distinct approach to Franco-Ontarian Conservativism, even if it'd require a Leslyn Lewis-type leadership juggernaut to make a lot of that pass...

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