Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:24:18

Constituency Profile


Hatch, Thomas

Muys, Dan

Newick, Lorne

Panchyshyn, Bill

Sgro, Vito


David Sweet

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



886.16 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

David Sweet ** 2452739.20%
Jennifer Stebbing 2287536.60%
Allison Cillis 1032216.50%
Janet Errygers 38336.10%
David Tilden 9821.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Sweet ** 2413743.50%
Jennifer Stebbing 2172839.10%
Mike DiLivio 777914.00%
David Allan Urquhart 18663.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3360.74%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Niagara West-Glanbrook
   (45.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (45.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Hamilton Mountain
   (9.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Donna Skelly 2245443.53%
Melissa Mcglashan 1763034.17%
Judi Partridge 796715.44%
Janet Errygers 23074.47%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7581.76%

19/09/21 prognosticator15
I sometimes wonder how the seat calls are made on this site. Here we have mostly pro-Cons 'hold' opinions and a pro-Cons Mainstreet poll cited (even though we have to be cautious about such polls), but it is still called Lib largely on the basis of urban expansion. I understand that A.S. (with an amazing command of street-level material on nearly all ridings across the country) and some others strongly believe in more or less instant electoral change with urban/suburban expansion and talk of Kitchener-Conestoga and certainly Milton and its Adam the Conqueror Liberal who is again strongly projected to win. Perhaps in the Milton case at least the call is right this time... But usually such change tends to be slow and it is a stretch to accept the fact it is usually permanent. Is it really sufficient here to claim that FINALLY to the delight of progressives another piece of expanding greater GTA area electoral furniture can be claimed? I do not think so. It has certainly become closer, but current CPC (with its Red Tory image) and a new candidate who has been commented upon below, may just be sufficient to keep it by a fairly narrow margin, and keep PPC at bay. O'Toole visit here close to the end of campaign surely shows it is close and has not been won by anyone yet, but where others' bias might be in favor of change, I look at it today primarily as an overlap between anti-Lib southwestern Ontario trends that Lib rise in Toronto does not address, and expanding suburbia that brings in new trends while being partly influenced by the old ones. On probabilities, I add a close call for Cons hold.
19/09/21 Dr Bear
This is one that I have kept an eye on for a long time. It’s growing quickly, becoming less rural and more suburban. This was a prime Liberal pick up seat, however they are polling down a few points and I think it will be enough for it to be a Conservative hold…this time….
17/09/21 George
Mainstreet of Sept 15 has a small Conservative lead, 36 Con to 32 Liberal among decided. This is with the PPC registering 8%.
13/09/21 D & S
Sgro is outsigning Muys all over the ward and was the only candidate pulling advance vote. If the PPC get to 5-6% here, all he needs to do is hold the vote in an area he won in the Mayor's race. LPC gain.
12/09/20 Chris N
8 days before the election, I give the edge to the Conservatives. The Liberal Vito Sgro campaign seems to be matching the outreach and visibility of the Jennifer Stebbing Liberal campaign in 2019, but not exceeding it. As a result, I think they will just fall short like last time.
02/09/21 Predictions
If 2021 had 2019 numbers, this would be a prime Liberal target, what with all the suburban growth in Glanbrook. But that's not the case now, and Vito Sgro is not a particularly strong candidate. Sweet's retirement probably isn't that much of a loss here for the Tories either, because his brand of politics is much more ‘rural Wentworth county’ than ‘suburban steeltown’, and Flam-Glan is increasingly becoming the latter. I'd say Dan Muys holds this for the Tories with a margin between 5-10
31/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as conservative David Sweet has retired . riding in this exact boundaries has only existed since 2015. Both races were relatively close between conservatives and liberals . past liberal candidate Jennifer Stebbing is not back replaced by Vito Sgro. Conservatives new candidate is Dan Muys. Conservative hold if they remain competitive in Ontario
24/08/21 AJV
This will be a LPC - CPC battle with the edge going to Sgro. While he was a ‘failed’ mayoral candidate, as a previous poster wrote, he had a respectable showing and did well in much of this riding’s municipal wards.
18/08/21 Hammer
This should have been an easy pick up for the Liberals, then they nominate failed mayoral candidate Vito Srgo, of the old guard Hamilton Liberals. Stebbing and Partridge both ran before and would've been a better suburban candidate. The riding is now closer than it should be.
15/08/21 Innocent Bystander
This riding has been trending Liberal as it urbanizes in both the Waterdown and Elfrida areas. Certainly not a safe-ish Tory seat anymore.
06/08/21 A.S.
It's the kind of seat that could have flipped had Sweet retired an election or two earlier. *Could have*. Worth considering that Sweet won in '19 w/a share virtually identical to the Libs' losing share in '15--and had the share gained by the NDP from '15-19 stuck w/the Libs, the Libs and Cons would have been essentially equal (and that's not even addressing the gained *Green* share). That is, vote splitting--particularly within Hamilton's NDP-friendly orbit--will always loom over seemingly ‘sure thing’ Lib shoulders. But it remains among the five-or -less likeliest CPC-held seats in Ontario to fall.
11/05/21 Craig
This is probably the best chance the Liberals will have for a pickup here due to continued population growth before new boundaries arrive. A few close elections have made it a reasonable possibility and continued growth in Waterdown and South Hamilton (and, to a lesser extent, Binbrook) have put this seat in play. David Sweet might be leaving at the right time - he was the ideal candidate here 10, 15 years ago but not now.
What does that mean? Flamborough-Glanbrook is a tossup. The Conservatives should still win the rural areas easily (barring a PPC split), but the urban areas are the ones growing and they are largely coming from the GTA with Liberal views. (The only question mark if the LPC picks the seat up is what would a new Liberal MP be left with after redistribution?)
06/05/21 Chris N
Since the riding was established in 2015, the riding has observed growing support for the Liberals, due in large part to the explosive suburban growth of Binbrook and Waterdown. With CPC incumbent David Sweet not running in the next election, I anticipate this to be a very close race.

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