Election Prediction Project

Etobicoke Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-23 10:43:37

Constituency Profile


Baker, Yvan

Cormier, Maurice

Da silva, Ashley

Turner, Geoffrey


Yvan Baker

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



37.10 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Yvan Baker 3280051.90%
Ted Opitz 2180434.50%
Heather Vickers-Wong 48817.70%
Cameron Semple 27754.40%
Nicholas Serdiuk 6641.10%
Mark Wrzesniewski 2950.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Borys Wrzesnewskyj 3261252.80%
Ted Opitz ** 2307037.30%
Tanya De Mello 48867.90%
Shawn Rizvi 8561.40%
Rob Wolvin 3780.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1460.27%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Etobicoke Centre
   (93.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.58% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Kinga Surma 2443243%
Yvan Baker * 1970834.68%
Erica Kelly 1031118.15%
Shawn Rizvi 13292.34%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 22104.74%

20/08/21 Etobian
Ah, Etobicoke Centre. Suburban ‘Ford Nation,’ and the yet the riding has elected just one Tory MP in 25 years. If the Conservatives want to have a chance here, they have to check all three of the following boxes:
1. Hope for a Liberal polling collapse à la Canada 2011 or Ontario 2018.
2. Nominate a member of the Eastern European diaspora. The last federal or provincial representative to *not* be of Ukrainian or Polish descent was Liberal MPP Donna Cansfield, who retired in 2014.
2. Refocus their campaign pertaining to seniors' issues. It is not a coincidence that the provincial PCs are reversing their stance on COVID-19 vaccine mandates for LTC.
28/07/21 A.S.
Sometimes typecast over the years as a ‘naturally’ Conservative riding (municipal representation helps the pigeonhole, as does Ford Nation), it's really more of an ‘establishment’ riding, and ‘establishment’ in recent times has meant Liberal--even to the point of sticking more closely to Liberal guns than the norm in uncongenial circumstances (federally in '11, provincially in '18). And if the legacy of Stephen Harper's high school years was only good for a disputed recount victory, don't expect any better from a party leader who actually currently represents an Ontario riding.
20/06/21 Chris N
In 2019, fresh off his provincial loss as an MPP, Yvan Baker won the federal seat, and with it a higher salary and better pension. This should be a safe Liberal seat unless the Conservatives start polling in deep majority territory. Even in 2011 with the CPC majority, the Conservatives were only able to win Etobicoke Centre by a hair.

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