Baker, Yvan
	Cormier, Maurice
	Da silva, Ashley
	Turner, Geoffrey
Incumbent:
	Yvan Baker

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			118022 114910 46400 45055 37.10 km² 3181.20/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Yvan Baker	32800	51.90%
	Ted Opitz	21804	34.50%
	Heather Vickers-Wong	4881	7.70%
	Cameron Semple	2775	4.40%
	Nicholas Serdiuk	664	1.10%
	Mark Wrzesniewski	295	0.50%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Borys Wrzesnewskyj	32612	52.80%
	Ted Opitz **	23070	37.30%
	Tanya De Mello	4886	7.90%
	Shawn Rizvi	856	1.40%
	Rob Wolvin	378	0.60%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		22307	41.86%
		7792	14.62%
		21616	40.56%
		1431	2.69%
Other		146	0.27%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Etobicoke Centre    (93.42% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Etobicoke-Lakeshore    (6.58% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Kinga Surma	24432	43%
	Yvan Baker *	19708	34.68%
	Erica Kelly	10311	18.15%
	Shawn Rizvi	1329	2.34%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		22694	48.70%
		15104	32.41%
		5368	11.52%
		1223	2.62%
Other		2210	4.74%

	20/08/21	Etobian 99.252.137.142
Ah, Etobicoke Centre. Suburban ‘Ford Nation,’ and the yet the riding has elected just one Tory MP in 25 years. If the Conservatives want to have a chance here, they have to check all three of the following boxes: 1. Hope for a Liberal polling collapse à la Canada 2011 or Ontario 2018. 2. Nominate a member of the Eastern European diaspora. The last federal or provincial representative to *not* be of Ukrainian or Polish descent was Liberal MPP Donna Cansfield, who retired in 2014. 2. Refocus their campaign pertaining to seniors' issues. It is not a coincidence that the provincial PCs are reversing their stance on COVID-19 vaccine mandates for LTC.
	28/07/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Sometimes typecast over the years as a ‘naturally’ Conservative riding (municipal representation helps the pigeonhole, as does Ford Nation), it's really more of an ‘establishment’ riding, and ‘establishment’ in recent times has meant Liberal--even to the point of sticking more closely to Liberal guns than the norm in uncongenial circumstances (federally in '11, provincially in '18). And if the legacy of Stephen Harper's high school years was only good for a disputed recount victory, don't expect any better from a party leader who actually currently represents an Ontario riding.
	20/06/21	Chris N 135.12.146.181
In 2019, fresh off his provincial loss as an MPP, Yvan Baker won the federal seat, and with it a higher salary and better pension. This should be a safe Liberal seat unless the Conservatives start polling in deep majority territory. Even in 2011 with the CPC majority, the Conservatives were only able to win Etobicoke Centre by a hair.