Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:37:47

Constituency Profile


Charron-Rowberry, Beth

Festeryga, Audrey

George, Andrew

Lewis, Chris

Palko, Jeremy

Pancheshan, Nancy

Ramsey, Tracey


Chris Lewis

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1100.62 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Chris Lewis 2827441.40%
Tracey Ramsey ** 2360334.60%
Audrey Festeryga 1298719.00%
Jennifer Alderson 21733.20%
Bill Capes 12511.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tracey Ramsey 2507241.40%
Jeff Watson ** 2160235.70%
Audrey Festeryga 1263920.90%
Jennifer Alderson 11411.90%
Enver Villamizar 770.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 730.15%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Taras Natyshak * 2613447.95%
Chris Lewis 2342342.98%
Kate Festeryga 30265.55%
Nancy Pancheshan 19203.52%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


19/09/21 jeff316
Oh the NDP in Essex is very much your 1990s NDP. The only party the PPC doesn't pull votes from is the Liberals. The PPC pulls not just disenchanted Conservatives, but also fringe anti-tax Greens, and 'sick of them Liberals' NDPers. I don't know that the PPC will do as well as some may think, but they're pulling from each party in Essex save the Liberals. Conservative numbers are down in Ontario...but in Essex are they really going NDP? With the PPC pulling from both the front runners, the Conservatives should hold this, but it will be a fascinating night.
18/09/21 KXS
The PPC is taking support away from all parties, but most significantly it is taking support away from the CPC.
There aren't that many NDP to PPC switchers. This isn't the NDP of 1993.
I expect the NDP to squeak through due to a vote split on the right.
17/09/21 C B
Going to go out on a limb here. The PPC are taking from all parties, with the NDP and the Conservatives feeling the brunt of it. This one could very well surprise on election night. We could have a 3-way NDP, Conservative, PPC contest here. PPC for the win. The mood is right.
13/09/21 Sam
I agree with John Stalvorne - on the one hand I'm not convinced the PPC totals will reach 12% in Ontario come election day (12% in the riding seems doable, but I don't think the correlation between populism and PPC support will be as pronounced as might be expected), but also I agree that PPC support will take a decent chunk of its votes from the NDP, Liberals and new voters, plus anti-lockdown and anti-vax people. Besides that 12% figure already seems to have petered out already.
Otherwise, the trends are good for the CPC here. Chris Lewis is a proven candidate and from what I know . Tracey Ramsey was a good advocate for the riding as well, contrary to what has been said, but Lewis is stronger.
13/09/21 Physastr Master
I wanted to make a general comment about the PPC surge, and this seems to be the place to do it. I think it's an interesting discussion because of how non-uniform the swing to the PPC is, to the point that it seems to come from completely different places depending on the region or province. Based on the latest polling aggregators, these are the trends accompanying the PPC rise:
BC, QC, Atl: Most recent swings about equally from CPC and NDP, NDP possibly dominant source in the Atlantic
AB, SK, MB: Sharp Con drop, NDP and Libs mostly stable
ON: Mainly conservatives, but all parties donating some support
Now please tolerate my attempt to interpret this:
Quebec and the Atlantic are both places with ‘softer’ NDP support - i.e. very few ancestrally NDP seats, and based on this I'm tempted to think there's a non-insignificant non-partisan protest vote for the NDP in these places, which seems easily swingable to the PPC. BC and to a lesser extent Ontario don't appear to fit this given that the NDP is often a credible choice, but those are both places with large young populations and hipster culture in some places. These are groups prone to either not caring about COVID or fiercely opposing lockdowns, almost from a libertarian left viewpoint. Polls seem to indicate that a lot of PPC growth is from young people, which seems to support this idea, although polls by age by province would help. On the prairies, none of these factors make a huge impact - strong ancestral NDP support, few hipsters, and less cosmopolitan so smaller concentrations of youth. It all seems to work.
If we accept this model, then I think it would favor the NDP in Essex. Pretty working class, so the youth movement doesn't matter that much, and definitely not hipster. The wild card is the NDP protest vote demographic, which given how populist this riding actually might be significant. That said, I think the NDP is familiar enough here that the demographic of politically promiscuous angry people probably isn't a huge flight risk, and I think less of that demographic naturally lives in the NDP camp than elsewhere.
Regardless, there are a lot of variables here, so this poll is mainly an attempt to trawl for ideas. Regardless, I think we could see very very bizarre results, like the NDP being destroyed by the PPC in the 416 while winning or being competitive in places like Essex, Sarnia and the Soo, so allow me to make this a very soft non-committal NDP prediction with an expectation for the unexpected.
11/09/20 John Stalvorne
I agree with prior posters that Essex (and the rest of rural SWO for that matter) is prime territory for a big PPC performance. But I'm not so sure it'll necessarily come from the Tories in a big enough proportion to stop them from winning. Most probably didn't vote at all and I wouldn't be surprised if there were lots of occasional NDP voting union workers mixed in too.
Except for the PPC which is a wildcard the trends don't favour the NDP. Essex is mostly small towns and farms, both of which have trended Conservative hard recently. If the PPC surges massively AND most of that support comes from Chris Lewis then he's finished but otherwise its his race to lose.
10/09/21 C B
I expect to update this prediction one final time before the election. Whoever said that Essex is a suburban riding is incorrect. While many do commute into Windsor for work, LaSalle is really the only suburban area of the riding. The rest is rural or small town. It’s definitely an interesting mix and has changed the most over the last several decades out of the area ridings. I stand by my statement regarding the populist sentiment and feel to the electorate. It is a mix of populist left, and populist right. The PPC will play the spoiler here as the previous commenter has stated. To what extent remains to be seen. This is closer than what the polls say. If I had to make a prediction right now it would be NDP, for the same reasons as the previous poster.
10/09/21 Inside
I think the PPC are going to play spoiler here. They won’t win but they are killing conservative candidates across SW Ontario and in Essex that’s going to matter.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Conservatives are more represented in the rural ridings with old buys clubs that will not allow change to happen . Most people are living in the past and do not think climate change exists.
02/09/21 Predictions
Essex is a pretty unique riding in southern Ontario, in that it's a largely suburban riding with very little Liberal presence. The demographics of Essex are simply not Lib-friendly.
Tracey Ramsey is re-offering for the NDP, but she did lose by a 7-pt margin in 2015. It might get a tad closer this time, but the CPC shows no sign of losing votes in Ontario. I think the Tories will hold this one.
02/09/21 R.O.
Chris Lewis was first elected in 2019 , the riding had been ndp in 2015 when Tracey Ramsay mp. before that it had been conservative from 2004-2015 when Jeff Watson mp . but before him had been liberal or ndp going back to the late 60’s. the riding is held by the ndp provincially who seem to have more luck winning actual ridings than federal ndp do here. the Windsor area has not elected a provincial conservative in recent memory but the federal cpc have done well in this riding and its gone cpc in every election since the party merged in 2004 except 2015 when the ndp did exceptionally well in the windsor area.
17/08/21 C B
This may surprise some, get laughed off by others. This is THE populist riding in Canada. People may not realize that, hence the back and forth between CON and NDP, and why they are both viable here. YES, there are absolutely voters who switch back and forth between NDP and CON. All of that being said, with the current political climate, the factor of the pandemic and the fact that, whether you agree with them or not, there are many people who have not taken kindly to what they view as government overreach. Count the PPC out, and you may have a surprise election night.
16/08/21 jeff316
Trudeau is both the NDP's problem and their saviour. For the NDP to win here, in its current form with Jagmeet as leader, two things must happen: a) the NDP can't lose too many votes to the Liberals, but b) needs enough Conservative voters to vote Liberal - because let's be honest, there aren't going to be a lot of Blue-Orange switchers in this riding with these leaders.
Trudeau may not play well to a salt of the earth riding like this one, but under these post-COVID circumstances he may have done well enough to boost his party's fortunes - the question will be, to Ramsey's benefit, or not? I'd say not.
(Comments about so-and-so being a good or bad rep are always from partisans. Ignore always.)
15/08/21 Marco Ricci
With the NDP up in support in some Ontario polls, it's possible that they could win back this seat. Tracey Ramsey lost it by almost 7 points in 2019 so it won't happen overnight but if the NDP can maintain their current momentum it's a possibility to keep an eye on.
12/08/21 Dr Bear
If Singh is doing so well and O’Toole is doing so poorly, then surely Essex is in the TCTC column. I honestly don’t believe either of those are as true as some will say. I would put my money on the CPC holding this seat.
19/06/21 seasaw
Tracy Ramsey wasn't a very good MP, that's why she wasn't re-elected, now she's trying to win back her riding but this time she's running against an incumbent. Lewis has done a decent job and he should be able to hold on.
08/08/21 A.S.
It isn't that Tracey Ramsey ‘wasn't a very good MP’, it's that the riding trended against her--she was a victim of the same dynamic that gave the supposedly bombproof Taras Natyshak a provincial scare at the hands of this very same Chris Lewis in '18. Indeed, one might wonder whether it's taps for NDP hyperviability in Essex--something that in its present federal form is really grandfathered in from the Steven Langdon era, and goes back to when the NDP displaced the Tories as Eugene Whelan's prime opposition force during the Trudeau years. Though if not them...then who? Thanks in part to Ramsey assuming strategic non-Con advantage, this was the weakest Liberal riding in Ontario in '19, the culmination of a long pattern of post-Whelan leakage. Because it's Ramsey again and Jagmeet's polling well, it's safe to assume that said strategic advantage remains very much intact--that is, it's not *quite* the end of the line, yet--and the simple fact of this being Greater Windsor furthers the ballast in the Dipper camp. But if you start to see drastic rightward shifts in hitherto NDP strongholds like Essex town (which'd make sense given the Alliance's strength there in '00), *then* things start looking a little more terminal...

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