Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-10 11:12:39

Constituency Profile


Ajibowu, Afeez

Cody, Katelyn

Hillier, Chelsea

Hopkins, Michael

Stark, Amanda

Vecchio, Karen


Karen Vecchio

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2484.52 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Karen Vecchio ** 3102650.20%
Pam Armstrong 1432423.20%
Bob Hargreaves 1101917.80%
Ericha Hendel 35625.80%
Donald Helkaa 9561.50%
Peter Redecop 6181.00%
Richard Styve 2490.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen Louise Vecchio 2802349.20%
Lori Baldwin-Sands 1764231.00%
Fred Sinclair 877115.40%
Bronagh Joyce Morgan 17833.10%
Michael Hopkins 5290.90%
Lou Bernardi 1850.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 7001.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jeff Yurek * 2926455.46%
Amanda Stratton 1692332.07%
Carlie Forsythe 38577.31%
Bronagh Morgan 20293.85%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7551.72%

19/09/21 prognosticator15
This usually quiet riding attracted substantial attention because of EPP briefly changing its prediction to TCTC, likely due to a known name (Hillier) of the well advertised PPC candidate and her party's sometimes disruptive rallies. Yet I cannot see these factors preventing Karen Vecchio from being reelected either by way of splitting her vote or by way of electing PPC. It would take a huge PPC vote to make progressives competitive, likelier NDP than the Libs, in particular in a mostly rural/small town riding in an election with a strong 'all but Liberal' trend in places like this. Vecchio is personally popular and many PPC supporters will end up voting for her. Even on vaccine mandates, a key issue of Lib propaganda and of PPC rise this year, only few accept a notion that all parties are equally evil (as PPC tries to present), and most will rather vote for a less evil party with chances of being in power, the CPC.
18/09/21 Rt. Hon. Adult
This riding will be the shot across the bow:
If you've been working from home for the last year, undisrupted by the constant moving of goalposts by government officials, and perhaps benefiting from lower commuting costs, you really have no idea how palpable the anger is in areas of the country like this riding. It's not a partisan thing either -- many of the voters going Green, NDP or PPC this year are doing so equally because of Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford (and they don't much like the capitulations of an Erin O'Toole either).
So, what prediction do we hold for Monday here? Simply that the PPC will do enough splashing in this riding to make heads turn. The party maybe has a 1-2% chance of winning (not 0% though!), but could also land Afeez Ajibowu in Ottawa for 12 months if things align just a certain way.
This may not seem like much, but recall back in 2004 and 2008 how another upstart party started getting one or two second place finishes in places like Guelph riding on the same anti-establishment tide -- today that party holds a couple of seats in Parliament, was kingmaker in BC and Official Opposition in PEI, and more... It will also give the CPC an existential crisis that will end the O'Toole era pretty quickly.
Mad Max, like Donald Trump, has laid out his plan openly if only people listen to the plainspoken words -- in this case, Max has got the time to play this out 2, 3, 4 election cycles until the PPC builds up a base of 10 or so seats, making the lives of establishment Tories miserable in the process, but not necessarily to the Liberals' delight as in the Chretien era.
17/09/21 C B
To the previous poster: you are now the second person I have heard claim that PPC supporters are more likely to display a lawn sign. What scientific proof do you have to back up this assertion? Why do you feel this way? My questions are out of curiosity. I happen to disagree. PPC supporters have been falsely maligned in the media and social circles for some time now. Would you display your support for this party if everyone was falsely calling you a racist, or would you keep it to yourself? Would you publicly support this party if you were being unfairly called an ‘anti-vaxxer’, looked down upon and ridiculed, when you are not anti-vax, but pro-choice? I think there is tremendous latent PPC support that is not showing in the polls. We will find out on Monday.
17/09/21 Jake H.
The Conservatives have owned this riding, and the last three elections here have been laughers. The incumbent will hold this seat comfortably.
Re: The PPC, they have a lot of lawn signs but a higher percentage of PPC supporters display signs than supporters of other parties, and also a lot of these signs are on public land FYI. I'd like to know where they're getting all their money!
This support will mean a huge increase over the party's 2019 showing nation-wide, but it's not going to translate into seats.
This one's a safe call for the Cons.
10/09/21 C B
The ignorance posters have of the PPC, their supporters and their level of support is astounding. I’m not saying they will win this riding, but we are setting ourselves up here for the shock of a lifetime with the results. That statement is a national statement, not specific to this riding necessarily. With absolutely no media coverage, no place in the debate, they are now at 12% according to EKOS. All I’m saying is they are up almost 10% from 2019, and rising. Ignore and laugh off at your peril.
10/09/21 Thomas K
Why is this too close to call? There are only so many antivaxxers that will vote for Hillier, and you've got to keep in mind with the lawn signs that, given the inherent nature of the PPC, its supporters are a very vocally strident minority, so I would assume that there is a far higher proportion of PPC supporters who would advertise it with a lawn sign than supporters of other parties.
Karen Vecchio is popular; the PPC is a ridiculous fringe group who will, yet again, win 0 seats nationwide. You can't seriously call this ‘TCTC’ based on them...
09/09/21 Gone Fishing
That the PPC is a legitimate option in this riding is not a joke it is a farce. Chelsea drop-in -to-a-local-hate-fest-Hillier will NOT beat out the Conservative candidate in this riding. Aylmer is divided over the local church pastor, not united. His thuggery is no more liked in EML than the PPC thuggery. If this is the breakthrough riding for fascist mind control we are all in for a huge awakening.
EML includes more London and ST Thomas residents than church of hildebrandt supporters. There are beach towns and a lot of rural villages that have deep ties to the two cities and the margin of error for an incumbent in this riding is huge. It is a big riding and Hillderbrant and Hillier are not representative of even the town of Aylmer which is very sick and tired of the minister.
I would not even discount strategic voting if liberals and dippers and greens were generally of the belief the PPC could win many would gravitate to the opponent with the best chance to win even if that is a conservative.
The bad ink on the association president and the big mouth of the PPC candidate should play a big role in negating any PPC supporters who are naive enough to believe this party is a legitimate option.
09/09/21 Tenn Can
If you go back to 2000, the CA almost took the riding but they were at 23% in Ontario, versus 51% for the Liberals and 14% for the PCs (province wide) ... I think the highest PPC has been in Ontario with current polling is 11%, I just don't see where this is going to lead to a scenario where the Grits come up the middle, never mind a PPC win. Let's say PPC takes Aylmer/Malahide by storm ... that is no more than 15% of the riding overall. Sure there are more rural areas like Aylmer/Malahide and some may say that the PPC support is growing, but only if they tie the C party in province wide polling, this is solid Conservative and Vecchio is going back to Ottawa. Won't even be close.
09/09/21 Sam
PPC supporters may be discontented with the MP, and I believe this could be one of the PPC's best ridings, but there is no reason why the CPC are likely to lose a seat they won with 50% - they would likely need to lose nearly half their vote to lose. Vecchio is by all accounts a popular MP outside of PPC discontent. It should be an easy hold.
09/09/21 nysuloem
There are a surprisingly large number of PPC signs in front lawns around this riding, at least in the Aylmer area. Aylmer, we must not forget, has been an epicenter for anti-lockdown protest. I definitely expect the PPC to perform better than their national polling numbers here, but not well enough to win the seat. Contrary to what others have said, I think Karen Vecchio is a very popular MP and has represented this riding well in her first two terms. I see no reason why the voters here would reject her this time, especially with momentum for the Conservatives rising across the country.
08/09/21 R.O.
There is no way Chelsea Hillier is going to get elected as mp. her appearance at the trudeau event in London was embarrassing especially after someone threw rocks at the PM which will surely lead to criminal charges if the rcmp can id who did it. there is peoples party signs on homes in Ontario this election also a lot on public property so I don’t doubt she has signs up this election. Karen Vecchio is not an unpopular mp she’s widely respected in Ottawa and held various high profile positions with the cpc caucus.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Always has been Conservative.
05/09/21 The Recluse of Sparta
PPC candidate Chelsea Hillier has a real shot at unseating a widely unpopular MP. Karen Vecchio is probably Justin Trudeau's favourite conservative MP and locals are not happy. PPC signs are blanketing this riding and there is palpable discontent from all corners of the riding. This will be one to watch on election night.
25/08/21 R.O.
Karen Vecchio was first elected in 2015 but riding has been conservative since 2004 so a long time cpc riding in rural south western Ontario. Oddly the daughter of mpp Randy Hillier is running for ppc here but there originally from eastern Ontario.
04/07/21 seasaw
Safe Conservative. Whether the CPC forms the government or not, they'll win this one
08/08/21 A.S.
Believe it or not, this was '19's only CPC majority riding in SW Ontario, and one of only 4 across the province (the others being Thornhill, RNP, and SDSG). Two things that could knock it down a few notches: continued Lib-friendly growth in S London, and Aylmer's anti-masker evangelicals deciding PPC or some such dissident entity is more their style. But it's not a ‘gateway to defeat’ kind of few notches.

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