Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:56:35

Constituency Profile


Frydman, Eric

Gleeson, Timothy

Mendicino, Marco

Pollock, Geoff

Senneker, Caleb


Marco Mendicino

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



22.67 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marco Mendicino ** 2985053.30%
Chani Aryeh-Bain 1854933.10%
Alexandra Nash 47418.50%
Reuben DeBoer 22784.10%
Michael Staffieri 5861.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marco Mendicino 2727848.90%
Joe Oliver ** 2378842.60%
Andrew Thomson 35056.30%
Matthew Chisholm 7991.40%
Ethan Buchman 3080.60%
Rudy Brunell Solomonovici 1140.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Robin Martin 1999940.38%
Mike Colle * 1904238.45%
Robyn Vilde 898518.14%
Reuben Anthony Deboer 11902.4%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4070.98%

18/07/21 A.S.
Without a heavy hitter like Joe Oliver, Eg-Law settled into being a demonstration of Jewish sectional voting gone berzerk in '19--their candidate even petitioned for an Jewish-holiday-avoiding election date change; and when that didn't work out, the ultra-Orthodox vote opted for special ballot instead (which leveraged 65-28 for the Cons, and with a special ballot total 2 1/2 times that in '15--meanwhile, the e-day polling stations within Orthodox areas saw sharply reduced turnouts). Looks like we're seeing a less radically sectional CPC candidate this time; but no matter, Mendicino's likely got it in the bag.
13/06/21 seasaw
Since inception, this riding has sent a Liberal to Ottawa in all but one election. That was in 2011,when the Ignatieff disaster and Harper's competence played a role, but the bigger reason was Joe Volpe being filmed ripping his opponent's literature from a mailbox and replacing it with his. Marco Mendicino isn't going to do anything that dumb. The only thing that might be of some trouble for the Liberals is as MF explained the Jewish citizens in this riding, both Trudeau and Mendicino have been indifferent about the numerous Liberal MP's who have supported the terrorist group Hamas.
20/05/21 MF
One of Toronto's major "Jewish" ridings, Eglinton-Lawrence saw a 10 point swing away from the Conservatives in 2019. Notably, Upper Forest Hill swung back to the Liberals. The Conservatives can count on the Orthodox Jewish community (as special ballot results showed), but the Liberals dominate affluent North Toronto and the rest of the riding. It's unlikely Marco Mendicino will face a real challenge here.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster