Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:04:07

Constituency Profile


Le Forestier, Jenni Michelle

McKendrick, Stephen

Post, Lisa

Sanchez, Samantha

Seeback, Kyle

Zambito, Anthony


Kyle Seeback

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2174.59 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kyle Seeback 2885242.00%
Michele Fisher 2264533.00%
Allison Brown 798111.60%
Stefan Wiesen 730310.60%
Chad Ransom 15162.20%
Russ Emo 3190.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Allan Tilson ** 2797746.30%
Ed Crewson 2364339.10%
Nancy Urekar 44337.30%
Rehya Yazbek 43987.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Sylvia Jones * 2970453.08%
Andrea Mullarkey 1138120.34%
Laura Campbell 701112.53%
Bob Gordanier 697212.46%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5381.19%

19/09/21 PEH
In this small c very conservative riding the PPC could be a spoiler for the big C Conservatives, especially since Kyle has veered far to the left from his early days as an MP and since he first won the nomination in this riding. Will they be a spoiler? Hard to predict, it may be a lot closer due to the PPC than comfortable for Kyle.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Always been Conservative, and the old boys networks wot allow change to happen. Even if some people believe climate change exists, the old boys networks wont allow change to happen. Quite sad actually
01/09/21 J.B.
Well, turns out the NDP did register a candidate at the last minute, so the end of my last submission is moot. This helps the CPC more than LPC, making this a safe riding for CPC at the moment.
31/08/21 J.B.
On paper this is a safe CPC seat - Liberals aren't polling well in Ontario compared to '15 and '19 elections, there is a high anti-Trudeau sentiment (Trudeau's campaign stop in this riding was cancelled due to protests), and law signs were around 3-1 ratio for CPC last weekend in at least some neighbourhoods.
That said, NDP has no registered candidate in this riding, and Green is polling very poorly. NDP + Green represented 22% of vote share in '19. Would they split between CPC and LPC? Or go LPC? Could be an interesting twist.
24/08/21 R.O.
Becoming more of a suburban / rural mixed riding due to its location near Toronto area. but still a long time conservative riding . Kylee Seeback was first elected here in 2019 although he had been an mp for Brampton in 2011.
29/05/21 KXS
This riding will be interesting to watch. Caledon has changed dramatically over the last 10 years and new residents are more likely to be LPC voters.
Orangeville does not have a strong LPC base. The progressive vote is split between the LPC, NDP and Greens.
If the NDP/Greens perform as they did in 2015, the LPC could win this. If they perform as well as they did in 2019, the CPC should be able to hold it.
08/08/21 A.S.
While growth in the Brampton-fringe far S has definitely favoured the Liberals, it'd be jumping the gun to suggest that it poses a threat to CPC dominance in DuffCal--then again, 42% is a pretty low share to be sitting on. If anything, that growth has compromised Green dominance in what used to be among their top-of-the-heap ridings--and because of where it's coming *from*, it's likely boosted the NDP in its ‘Outer Brampton’ stead...

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