Election Prediction Project

Don Valley West
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:13:25

Constituency Profile


Caputolan, Elvira

Khan, Adil

Minas, Michael

Oliphant, Rob

Riaz, Syeda

Robertson, Yvonne


Rob Oliphant

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.22 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Rob Oliphant ** 2914855.80%
Yvonne Robertson 1630431.20%
Laurel MacDowell 38047.30%
Amanda Kistindey 22574.30%
Ian Prittie 4440.90%
John Kittredge 2770.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rob Oliphant 2747253.80%
John Carmichael ** 1920637.60%
Syeda Riaz 30766.00%
Natalie Hunt 8481.70%
John Kittredge 3250.60%
Elizabeth Hill 840.20%
Sharon Cromwell 750.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1400.31%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Don Valley West
   (87.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. Paul's
   (12.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Kathleen Wynne * 1780238.89%
Jon Kieran 1762138.49%
Amara Possian 862018.83%
Morgan Bailey 12682.77%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5361.38%

18/09/21 bobby
Conservative Yvonne Robertson confirmed, withdrew, and then confirmed attendance at the only candidates debate, but in the end chose to attend for only 40 minutes, leaving hundreds of well-heeled online attendees from Bedford Park to the Bridle Path mystified and weirded out. Maybe she had somewhere else to be.
It's too bad. Whatever your political stance, no party should take any riding for granted. In DVW of all ridings, a competent Conservative candidate could give the Liberals a run for their money, as it's a two-horse race with no NDP or Green presence to speak of. Maybe one day the Conservatives will nominate such a candidate. Maybe.
16/09/21 MH
Like Toronto St Paul's, this is as safe a Liberal seat as any in Canada outside the island of Montreal. Provincially it stayed Liberal in 2018, even though Kathleen Wynne was an unpopular premier, when most of the province and even many seats in Toronto shifted to the Tories or the NDP. Lots of Oliphant signs on lawns. A Liberal hold.
08/09/21 R.O.
This riding has actually seen some close liberal / conservative races federally and provincially in recent elections. But not really a cpc target this election although 2019 candidate Yvonne Robertson is back for another run. There should have been a provincial by election here but Kathleen Wynne stubbornly decided to stay on as mpp despite the fact its tradition for former premiers to leave queens park. She only held the seat by a tiny margin so the by election could have been an interesting one. Doesn’t matter much federally Rob Oliphant was first elected in 2008 but lost the riding in 2011 when John Carmichael briefly mp for 1 term.
18/07/21 A.S.
What highlights how far things have electorally shifted: Don Valley West is now more ‘Lib-safe’ than Don Valley North. In 1988, the last pre-'15 ‘normal-binary’ election where there were political entities with those names, the former gave the Tories a 16.5% margin, the latter gave them a 1.5% margin. The biggest threat to Oliphant would be that of a non-majority in case Thorncliffe distributes its vote around a bit (it went *80%* Liberal in '19; part of a pattern that year of immigrant/multicultural high-rise forests going turbo-Grit, like a mirror version of the ScheerCons' monster shares in the Prairies)
24/05/21 MF
Don Valley West has the highest average income of any riding in Canada. Prior to 1993, it was a Tory riding par excellence - back in the days when the old PCs were more of an ‘elite’ party. With the liberalization of university-educated professionals and the Conservative turn against ‘elites’ DVW has become a solid Liberal riding (with the exception of the narrow 2011 Conservative win). Kathleen Wynne held on to DVW provincially - it does have a sort of ‘Lib Dem rather than Labour’ dynamic. Thorncliffe Park of course - the exception to the otherwise affluent character of the riding - further pads the Liberal margins.

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