Election Prediction Project

Don Valley North
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:03:53

Constituency Profile


Dong, Han

Griffin, Bruce

Sobel, Jay

Telfer, Natalie

Zuniga, Sabrina


Han Dong

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



24.35 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Han Dong 2349550.40%
Sarah Fischer 1650635.40%
Bruce Griffin 42859.20%
Daniel Giavedoni 18033.90%
Jay Sobel 4821.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Geng Tan 2349451.40%
Joe Daniel ** 1727937.80%
Akil Sadikali 38968.50%
Caroline Brown 10182.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1420.36%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Don Valley East
   (52.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (47.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Vincent Ke 1804644.44%
Shelley Carroll 1255730.92%
Akil Sadikali 847620.87%
Janelle Yanishewski 10392.56%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.36%

16/09/21 OgtheDim
Kinda wondering where the CPC strong candidate thing comes from - a quick google search indicates a weird view or two but then which political candidate doesn't have some weird stuff.
This is a party riding where the feeling of the 416 suburbs towards the Tories, which is Blue Liberal in nature, is key to deciding if the Liberals win or not.
The ballot question here is ‘ Do we vote the reds out or keep those blue guys out’. Right now, the latter seems to be the answer in these parts.
06/09/21 seasaw
I'm making this prediction based on the latest Nanos poll for 416, it has the Liberals 44% and CPC at 33%. With numbers like that, it would be difficult for the Liberals to hang on to this riding. In the 416, if you're a Liberal candidate, you're guaranteed 30% support, regardless of which of the 25 ridings you run in and there are at least 4 ridings that in a bad year, you're guaranteed 50% or close to it. It's a lot different for the CPC, because in 416, there are a couple of rings that a double digit percentage is a good result, there are 3 more that a good result would be getting 15% ( your deposit back), then there are 3 others that a good result is higher than 25%. This riding does not fall in any of those categories, so with the Nanos numbers, you do the math, and you'll see that this riding is in play, providing of course these numbers hold. This coupled with the fact that the Liberal incumbent is a dud and the CPC has a good candidate, makes this a winnable riding for the CPC. Of course the numbers may change, so can my prediction.
28/07/21 A.S.
Dong may have been a parachute, but his '19 CPC opponent Sarah Fischer was a poor fit for the riding even if she was a resident. But yes, this is part of the ‘Steeles belt’ which the rightward turn of the Jewish/Asian populace has turned into the currently lowest-hanging 416 fruit for CPC. As positioned now, DVN's not hanging low enough; in fact, maybe even retreating, and Sheppard-line urban intensification certainly doesn't help.
26/05/21 Chris N
Many were upset last election when Han Dong, a former MPP in Downtown Toronto, was parachuted as a candidate in this north end Toronto riding. Despite this criticism, Dong won with a slim majority. If the Conservatives are to make waves in Toronto, I anticipate this would be one of the first ridings to switch blue. However, at this time I don't see an O'Toole-led CPC party matching the electoral support of the 2011 Harper election when the CPC finally broke through in Toronto. I'd bet on the Liberals winning this seat next election.

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