Election Prediction Project

Don Valley East
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:19:40

Constituency Profile


Coteau, Michael

De Marco, Peter

Topp, Simon

Williams, Penelope


Yasmin Ratansi

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



22.76 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Yasmin Ratansi ** 2529559.80%
Michael Ma 1011523.90%
Nicholas Thompson 464711.00%
Dan Turcotte 16754.00%
John P. Hendry 5621.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Yasmin Ratansi 2404857.80%
Maureen Harquail 1215529.20%
Khalid Ahmed 430710.40%
Laura Elizabeth Sanderson 10782.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1880.53%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Don Valley East
   (61.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Don Valley West
   (38.56% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Coteau * 1301235.93%
Denzil Minnan-Wong 1198433.09%
Khalid Ahmed 993727.44%
Mark Wong 9172.53%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5071.61%

25/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as Yasmin Ratansi was forced to sit as an independent and pretty sure she isn’t running again. Although the liberals nominated Michael Coteau a provincial mpp and very well known in Toronto so likely the riding will stay liberal. he held his provincial seat during the 2018 election when liberals won almost nothing in the GTA. Penelope Williams is the new conservative candidate and Simon Topp ndp candidate but neither ran here before or well known.
16/08/21 BTG
This riding went Conservative in the 2011 disaster for the Liberals but is one of the safest Liberals seats in Toronto, so Coteau is a sure winner.
You would think that Coteau would be in Cabinet except the Liberals have so many Toronto/GTA MPs, so if it is a majority he might have to wait.
14/08/21 Hammer
The Liberals nominated former Ontario cabinet minister Michael Coteau. Coteau should win by a large margin, and is likely a candidate for a cabinet position should Trudeau form government again.
11/08/21 PY
It'll be indeed be Michael Coteau for the Liberals (https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2021/08/10/former-ontario-ministers-micheal-coteau-and-yasir-naqvi-running-as-liberal-candidates-in-the-next-federal-election.html) and thus I can't see Ratansi running as an independent now.
Nothing short of a miraculous performance by Erin O'Toole nationally and the mood of Canadians regarding COVID to drastically change to one of simply muddling through in every respect will it remotely possible for any prospective Conservative candidate to win.
In the meantime, I'll gladly bet on the house.
18/07/21 A.S.
When it comes to the likelihood of a CPC ‘razor thin win’, look: they got less than 24% in '19. Even if the Libs ran a Joe Shmo and Ratansi ran as an independent, coming up the middle is terribly unlikely given those figures, and even less likely given O'Toole's polling doldrums. Plus, coming up the middle didn't work out last time for the Cons in Markham-Stouffville or Vancouver-Granville--and besides, even as a prospective independent running, Ratansi ain't no Puglaas or Philpott.
12/07/21 seasaw
While this riding under its current boundaries has elected Liberals as long as dirt itself, we still don't know if Ratansi will run as an Independent or not, if she doesn't, then it's a Liberal riding whether the Liberal candidate is Michael Couteau or Joe Shmo, if she does and with a slight surge in CPC support, it might just be enough for the CPC to squeeze a razor thin win
08/05/21 Chris N
If former Ontario cabinet minister wins the Liberal nomination as expected, I anticipate that this seat will stay red.
05/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Given that with the current boundaries they would have held this seat in 2011, I think it's fair to call this for the Liberals.

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