Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-23 10:43:10

Constituency Profile


Epp, Dave

Gelinas, Dan

Hetherington, Greg

Vallee, Liz

Vercouteren, Mark


Dave Epp

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2046.28 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Dave Epp 2535946.90%
Katie Omstead 1689931.20%
Tony Walsh 822915.20%
Mark Vercouteren 22334.10%
John Balagtas 10612.00%
Paul Coulbeck 3070.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dave Van Kesteren ** 2167741.70%
Katie Omstead 1935137.20%
Tony Walsh 954918.40%
Mark Vercouteren 13942.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 40.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (94.37% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.83% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.81% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rick Nicholls * 2407851.92%
Jordan Mcgrail 1655835.71%
Margaret Schleier Stahl 37368.06%
Mark Vercouteren 16433.54%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5181.29%

09/09/21 Jake H.
This riding is traditionally right-leaning anyway, but particularly in the last two elections and with anti-Trudeau sentiment sky high, the Conservatives could literally run a potato in this riding and win. It's about as close as you can come to a slam dunk for the Conservatives in Ontario.
Dave Epp has already won here twice and is well known in the community. Nothing against Katie Omstead, the Liberal candidate, who seemed very nice but people in CK just voted Convservative. The Liberals' new candidate, Greg Hetherington, is not a known quantity like here and will have a tough time getting within 10,000 votes, like Omstead did in 2019.
Likewise, Tony Walsh wasn't a bad candidate for the NDP but that party is still a complete non-factor in this riding. Their new candidate, Dan Gelinas, will be lucky to retain the votes the NDP got in 2019.
I will say I've seen a surprising number of PPC signs. Not a lot of them, but quite a few. They have no chance of winning mind you, but a lot can happen before September 20 so, if there was a Liberal upsurge (or Conservative ‘downsurge’) it might be within the realm of possibility for them to siphon off enough votes to ‘matter’...
One interesting thing to note about this riding is, even if pro-Liberal ‘strategic voting’ comes into play on both sides (i.e. NDP votes to the Libs AND Cons to PPC), odds are it won't be nearly enough. In the 2019 election, if you move every single NDP vote to the Liberals' column, it still wouldn't have been enough to overcome the Conservatives' vote total. That says a lot!
05/09/21 Wildflower
Always has been a old boys club with people not liking heavy spending , and focused on keeping taxes down
27/08/21 DR
Interesting turn of events here. Went for a drive around Chatham and probably saw more People’s Party signs than Conservative signs. Still think it will be a Conservative hold. PPC supporters probably just more likely to display a sign. But PPC should finish in front of Greens and may also surpass the NDP for third. Still think the Liberals will be second.
25/08/21 DR
Should be a hold for CPC. Liberals have a popular radio station host/owner running but area is traditionally Conservative. O’Toole may have angered Conservative Christians with pro-choice stance and also says doctors will be required to refer women to abortion providers even if against conscience reversing his previous stand, but CPC supporters will still vote Conservative as they view it the best overall choice. May be closer than 2019 as Liberal candidate is campaigning very hard
25/08/21 R.O.
David Epp was first elected in 2019 so not a well known mp. Riding has been conservative since 2006 when the previous cpc mp first elected. More of a race looming here provincially now that former pc mpp is independent but likely to stay cpc this election.
19/06/21 seasaw
Many expected this riding to be close and some even predicted a Liberal victory here, the riding, however wasn't close last time and I don't expect anything to change. CPC hold
08/08/21 A.S.
Well, misguidedly or not, there's a reason people might have forecast closeness last time; it was close in '15, the CPC incumbent wasn't running again, and the Liberal who made it close in '15 *was*. But anyway, as goes the present, CKL practically seems the median O'TooleCon riding: just the right mix of non-metropolitan blue-collar and agricultural heartland, and with a layer of the evangelical to pin down the ‘Leslyn Lewis’ element. The trouble is, median does not equal universal, and there's a limited selection of such ridings in Southern Ontario, even if it *looks* like a lot because they cover a lot of geography. IOW Harper/Scheer-style Western sectionalism (or the Mulroney Quebec strategy) is more ‘seat-efficient’, in the end. But hey; in this case, if it works, it works...

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