Epp, Dave
	Gelinas, Dan
	Hetherington, Greg
	Vallee, Liz
	Vercouteren, Mark
Incumbent:
	Dave Epp

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			109619 111866 48494 44647 2046.28 km² 53.60/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Dave Epp	25359	46.90%
	Katie Omstead	16899	31.20%
	Tony Walsh	8229	15.20%
	Mark Vercouteren	2233	4.10%
	John Balagtas	1061	2.00%
	Paul Coulbeck	307	0.60%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Dave Van Kesteren **	21677	41.70%
	Katie Omstead	19351	37.20%
	Tony Walsh	9549	18.40%
	Mark Vercouteren	1394	2.70%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		24672	53.20%
		12595	27.16%
		7554	16.29%
		1551	3.34%
Other		4	0.01%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Chatham-Kent-Essex    (94.37% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Essex    (4.83% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex    (0.81% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Rick Nicholls *	24078	51.92%
	Jordan Mcgrail	16558	35.71%
	Margaret Schleier Stahl	3736	8.06%
	Mark Vercouteren	1643	3.54%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		9561	23.80%
		14851	36.97%
		13156	32.74%
		2090	5.20%
Other		518	1.29%

	09/09/21	Jake H. 45.72.226.17
This riding is traditionally right-leaning anyway, but particularly in the last two elections and with anti-Trudeau sentiment sky high, the Conservatives could literally run a potato in this riding and win. It's about as close as you can come to a slam dunk for the Conservatives in Ontario. Dave Epp has already won here twice and is well known in the community. Nothing against Katie Omstead, the Liberal candidate, who seemed very nice but people in CK just voted Convservative. The Liberals' new candidate, Greg Hetherington, is not a known quantity like here and will have a tough time getting within 10,000 votes, like Omstead did in 2019. Likewise, Tony Walsh wasn't a bad candidate for the NDP but that party is still a complete non-factor in this riding. Their new candidate, Dan Gelinas, will be lucky to retain the votes the NDP got in 2019. I will say I've seen a surprising number of PPC signs. Not a lot of them, but quite a few. They have no chance of winning mind you, but a lot can happen before September 20 so, if there was a Liberal upsurge (or Conservative ‘downsurge’) it might be within the realm of possibility for them to siphon off enough votes to ‘matter’... One interesting thing to note about this riding is, even if pro-Liberal ‘strategic voting’ comes into play on both sides (i.e. NDP votes to the Libs AND Cons to PPC), odds are it won't be nearly enough. In the 2019 election, if you move every single NDP vote to the Liberals' column, it still wouldn't have been enough to overcome the Conservatives' vote total. That says a lot!
	05/09/21	Wildflower 172.83.175.119
Always has been a old boys club with people not liking heavy spending , and focused on keeping taxes down
	27/08/21	DR 198.84.156.144
Interesting turn of events here. Went for a drive around Chatham and probably saw more People’s Party signs than Conservative signs. Still think it will be a Conservative hold. PPC supporters probably just more likely to display a sign. But PPC should finish in front of Greens and may also surpass the NDP for third. Still think the Liberals will be second.
	25/08/21	DR 198.84.156.144
Should be a hold for CPC. Liberals have a popular radio station host/owner running but area is traditionally Conservative. O’Toole may have angered Conservative Christians with pro-choice stance and also says doctors will be required to refer women to abortion providers even if against conscience reversing his previous stand, but CPC supporters will still vote Conservative as they view it the best overall choice. May be closer than 2019 as Liberal candidate is campaigning very hard
	25/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
David Epp was first elected in 2019 so not a well known mp. Riding has been conservative since 2006 when the previous cpc mp first elected. More of a race looming here provincially now that former pc mpp is independent but likely to stay cpc this election.
	19/06/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
Many expected this riding to be close and some even predicted a Liberal victory here, the riding, however wasn't close last time and I don't expect anything to change. CPC hold
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Well, misguidedly or not, there's a reason people might have forecast closeness last time; it was close in '15, the CPC incumbent wasn't running again, and the Liberal who made it close in '15 *was*. But anyway, as goes the present, CKL practically seems the median O'TooleCon riding: just the right mix of non-metropolitan blue-collar and agricultural heartland, and with a layer of the evangelical to pin down the ‘Leslyn Lewis’ element. The trouble is, median does not equal universal, and there's a limited selection of such ridings in Southern Ontario, even if it *looks* like a lot because they cover a lot of geography. IOW Harper/Scheer-style Western sectionalism (or the Mulroney Quebec strategy) is more ‘seat-efficient’, in the end. But hey; in this case, if it works, it works...