Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:35:55

Constituency Profile


Braniff, Michele

Bruce, Lorne

Cody, Connie

May, Bryan

Segounis, Maggie


Bryan May

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



346.97 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bryan May ** 2290339.50%
Sunny Attwal 1740930.00%
Scott Hamilton 1117719.30%
Michele Braniff 43437.50%
David Haskell 18723.20%
George McMorrow 1620.30%
Manuel Couto 760.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bryan May 2302443.20%
Gary Goodyear ** 2061338.60%
Bobbi Stewart 739713.90%
Michele Braniff 17233.20%
Lee Sperduti 4740.90%
Manuel Couto 1080.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1340.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.46% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Belinda Karahalios 1779336.97%
Marjorie Knight 1563932.49%
Kathryn Mcgarry * 1119123.25%
Michele Braniff 30186.27%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5121.30%

11/09/21 Rt. Hon. Adult
This is more of a ‘who wins Cambridge wins the election this year’ case*.
Now that the debates are in the books and the post-Labour Day shift has been felt, it's time to take assessment of the landscape:
1. The Tories, NDP, and PPC will have a higher engagement level this year, vs the Grits and Greens (despite the fact that there latter's leader could have picked up 3 seats including nearby Kitchener Centre had her party not been such a culture club.
2. The NDP and Tories have surpassed any organizational expectation, which will give them a small boost on E-Day.
3. The ballot question this year will be ‘character’: Paul, Singh, O'Toole (and hey, even Blanchet in Quebec!) will win votes on this at the expense of the incumbent.
Final analysis: Tories pick up Cambridge by about 1000 votes, a sign of them taking roughly 50-55 ridings in Ontario.
That said, with the NDP increasing their caucus size, the Liberals will likely govern from 2nd place with NDP and Green support (leaving only the question of whether Trudeau will still be PM by Thanksgiving...gobble gobble!).
02/09/21 Predictions
This one is a LPC-CPC toss up. In theory, O'Toole's more moderate, blue-collar oriented rhetoric should give them the upper hand here, but Bryan May held it with a 9-pt margin in 2019, and the Tory candidate doesn't seem particularly noteworthy this time either. I'd say this is an Ontario bellwether, as in whichever party wins the popular vote in Ontario wins Cambridge.
25/08/21 R.O.
Bryan May was first elected here in 2015 and was first time liberals had won the riding since 2000. Had been a relatively safe cpc riding from 06-2011 elections when Gary Goodyear mp. So obviously a riding that swings between the liberals and conservatives federally. Connie Cody is the new conservative candidate this year little early in election to predict this one.
05/08/21 Stevo
Cambridge is more working class than other Ontario cities (which works in favour of the CPC and NDP) but also somewhat younger (which works against the CPC). Three way race possible.
08/08/21 A.S.
Cambridge isn't *as* working class as it once was; it's increasingly part of the Waterloo Region conurbation/401-corridor symbiosis--which is why the Libs not only grabbed it in '15, but held it on an increased margin in '19 (a far cry from the days when Lib figures were sunk low by Oshawa-style Con/Dipper conventional wisdom). It's a different dynamic from that which has lately sustained the Cons in Brantford to the S--indeed, it's getting to look like 40% is an effective ceiling for Con support in Cambridge (they couldn't even crack it provincially in '18--and the one they elected is now dissident). And the kind of youth demo which might presently be drawn to the NDP might have less to do with old ‘working class’ predilections than current regional campus/tech-hub promiscuous-progressivism (and maybe a layer of priced-out-of-Toronto). I do agree about the energy being 3-way, though.

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