Election Prediction Project

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:06:50

Constituency Profile


Fosbrooke, Anna-Marie

Kaikkonen, Reima

Lawrence, Ashley Michelle

Neudorf, Christopher

Ruff, Alex

Watson, Anne Marie


Alex Ruff

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



6114.05 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Alex Ruff 2683046.10%
Michael Den Tandt 1748530.10%
Chris Stephen 679711.70%
Danielle Valiquette 51148.80%
Bill Townsend 16142.80%
Daniel Little 3210.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Larry Miller ** 2629746.70%
Kimberley Love 2187938.80%
David McLaren 627011.10%
Chris Albinati 18873.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Bill Walker * 2687454.7%
Karen Gventer 1183724.09%
Francesca Dobbyn 604112.3%
Don B. Marshall 29275.96%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3880.91%

21/08/21 R.O.
Alex Ruff is a first term mp so not well known in Ottawa but a long time conservative riding provincially and federally . would expect him to hold the riding .
31/07/21 Stevo
There was a lot of speculation on these boards in times past about this riding ‘GTA-izing’ and that it was only a matter of time before the Liberals overtook the Conservatives (absent a right-wing vote split). Never really came to pass. I think what they missed is that people fleeing the GTA for Owen Sound and other small Ontario cities are less Liberal-inclined than GTAers as a whole. Their migration doesn't so much change the electoral character of the outlying cities as further entrench the divide between those communities and the big city.
04/07/21 seasaw
This will be a Conservative hold. The Liberals might make it interesting if the CPC doesn't run a good campaign, but at the end of the day, this'll go Conservative
08/08/21 A.S.
Well, especially in these days of ‘economic refugees’, it isn't *quite* true that all of those fleeing Toronto are ‘fleeing the Liberals’--though you might find more of a divide *within* the ridings, where places like Owen Sound and Meaford stick out more relative to their surroundings and a perceived city-slicker invasion might well drive the longstanding locals even further to the right (particularly when the Libs are represented by some Laurentian-elite type like Michael Den Tandt in '19). Really; the most viable left-challenge to Con domination in BGOS would be through a certain ‘outsiderdom’, a la that brief flirtation w/Shane Jolley Green-ism during the noughts (or a la the UK Liberals in their peak Celtic fringe/beards-and-sandals years). Heck, even the Libs' reaching into upper 30s and turning the seat into a marginal in '15 pivoted upon a momentary touch of ‘Justin outsiderdom’--but Justin sure isn't the outside choice now. Of course, in the present climate alternate outsiderdoms a la PPC might be capable of chipping away the CPC vote (and it already was one of PPC's stronger Ontario seats in '19)

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