Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:27:01

Constituency Profile


Bory, Leslie

Brock, Larry

Csordas, Karleigh

Macdonald, Alison

Roberts, Adrienne

Squire, Cole

Turmel, John The Engineer


Phil McColeman

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



828.81 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Phil McColeman ** 2684940.30%
Danielle Takacs 2045430.70%
Sabrina Sawyer 1313119.70%
Bob Jonkman 42576.40%
Dave Wrobel 13202.00%
Jeffrey Gallagher 3940.60%
John The Engineer Turmel 1460.20%
Leslie Bory 1150.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Phil McColeman ** 2587440.90%
Danielle Takacs 1942230.70%
Marc Laferriere 1571524.80%
Kevin Brandt 15822.50%
Rob Ferguson 5150.80%
The Engineer Turmel 1640.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2950.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Will Bouma 2443742%
Alex Felsky 2380240.91%
Ruby Toor 55539.54%
Ken Burns 27414.71%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5891.18%

18/09/21 OgtheDim
CPC hold
FWIW - this is not an ‘indigenous’ riding
6 Nations (Not Mohawk) vote % is actually relatively high compared to most reserves. The elected leaders have a lot more sway about people being able to vote - the news out today about the traditional (heriditary) leaders being against voting doesn't mean much beyond reducing the % who vote a bit.
the population of this riding is overwhelmingly conservative heartland types. The Nixon machine is gone.
05/09/21 Wildflower
Since the riding is indigenous, it is hard to say where the mohawks will park their vote. I do know in the past the Caledonia was a serious issue when Conservatives were in the riding in the past.
Could be a NDP pick up if not liberal . Hard to say
I think healthcare is an issue because of what happened during the 2 nd wave. Many people do not want to have a 2 tier healthcare system
02/09/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as Phil Mccoleman retired after first getting elected here in 2008. Prior to that the riding had been liberal and ndp . Larry Brock is the new conservative candidate. Facing Adrienne Roberts ndp and Allison Macdonald liberal. as long as the cpc remains competitive in Ontario they should keep there open seats.
05/07/21 Old Tory
Here is what most people miss. In 2006, Brant had a Liberal MP, a Liberal MPP and a Liberal mayor. The local Tory EDA was broke. Phil took a bunch of advice from people who had never won a campaign in the past and still barely lost. Phil regrouped after that loss, put his own team together and has not looked back. All the while becoming one of the richest non Western EDAs of any party in the country(look it up). Pretty well that same team got Bouma and Davis elected. Both Tories. 100 per cent flip in 12 years. I haven't heard about anyone leaving the team even though Phil is retiring. So, Larry could still lose but Brantford types don't look too kindly on people from â€کaway’. I have been here for 48 years and still do not feel like I am â€کfrom’ here. So good luck to whomever the parachuted Liberal is(whose name currently escapes me). She will need it.
13/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Going to revise my prediction here, the federal liberals decided to parachute someone from Toronto into this riding for the third time in a row. This is not a blue seat though, it's just one that the federal liberals have given up on winning. Also it is basically as rural as Cambridge, and the liberals won that fairly easily.
11/05/21 Craig
Old trends are meaningless here. Brantford isn't exactly friendly for the Liberals these days and this is very low on the pickup opportunities list, incumbent or not. This is not the same Liberal Party that existed then - it is far more urbane and white collar, which is not a good combination for a largely working class riding.
Urban Brantford should be a mix of all three parties with no one dominating, but the Conservatives should still decently well (and so should the NDP, which will hurt the Liberals). The rural parts of Brant County is heavily Conservative and should put them over the top.
05/05/21 Jeremus von Storheim
I'm going to call this early for the liberals, and it will probably go liberal by a fair margin. The conservative incumbent has announced that he will not be running again, and his replacement candidates are not nearly as popular as he is. In the previous election you had a very popular conservative incumbent, facing a very unpopular liberal candidate, and a somewhat more popular NDP candidate. This seat is a very traditional liberal stronghold in southwestern ontario, before Phil McColeman there were almost no conservative MPs, and it stayed liberal in the 2006 election, while a lot of the rest of southwest ontario was lost. So given that the Conservatives and NDP are both running rather weak candidates, it should be the easiest liberal pickup in Ontario, even if they end up losing other seats.
08/08/21 A.S.
Never mind the rhetoric about Brantford being ‘blue collar’ and hence on some kind of terminal Obama/Trump trajectory. The fact is, it's a large city, the dominant presence in the riding (w/Paris as minor-centre reinforcement), as well as an increasing part of a regional-conurbation economic dynamic (a connector piece btw/Hamilton & K-W, so to speak); and in the overall SW Ontario scheme of things, it *should* be very much left-viable, maybe even ‘migrating’ in that direction, most particularly as an open seat. But the trouble is, the local Liberal machine's been basically left to atrophy post-Jane Stewart (thus the halfhearted efforts in recent cycles), while energetic NDP campaigns and memories of Derek Blackburn simply haven't been enough to overtake the current red-blue binary ‘a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives’ pigeonhole. Thus the seat's been handed to the Cons on a platter--and by the sound of things in the Liberal camp, it's going to require CPC candidate bozodom, and/or a lot of last-straw thinking among past CPC ‘moderate’ voters re the party's direction, and/or substantial right-populist ‘freedom bloc’ leakage to PPC or wherever, and/or a bigger Jagmeet wave convincing constituents that an NDP vote isn't vote-wasting folly or a Painfully Woke meal ticket...
06/08/21 Stevo
This area was stubbornly Liberal in the 90s through to 2008 (different boundaries of course). This was not even a vote-split victim in 2000; the Liberals vastly outperformed Alliance + PC that year. So the resilience of the Conservative vote lately is somewhat surprising. Being in the Hamilton orbit, the NDP is fairly strong and almost took this seat provincially in 2018. Likely Conservative hold; Jagmeet's popularity should prevent any appreciable rise in the Liberal vote.

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