Election Prediction Project

Brampton East
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:03:44

Constituency Profile


Bajaj, Naval

Bannister-Clarke, Gail

Sidhu, Maninder

Singh, Manjeet


Maninder Sidhu

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



84.90 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Maninder Sidhu 2405047.40%
Saranjit Singh 1336826.30%
Ramona Singh 1212523.90%
Teresa Burgess-Ogilvie 6661.30%
Gaurav Walia 2440.50%
Manpreet Othi 2110.40%
Partap Dua 890.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Raj Grewal 2365252.30%
Naval Bajaj 1064223.50%
Harbaljit Singh Kahlon 1040023.00%
Kyle Lacroix 5121.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1480.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (89.2% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (10.8% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Gurratan Singh 1806246.92%
Sudeep Verma 1289633.5%
Parminder Singh 639816.62%
Raquel Fronte 5231.36%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 100.03%

16/09/21 R.O.
Brampton is seen as a safe liberal area this election but been several campaign stops in the city in the final week. Trudeau was in Brampton for his packed rally which many questioned if it followed covid guidelines or not and Jagmeet Singh also visited the city. I don’t believe Otoole has been to Brampton and only made 1 stop in peel I’m aware of in Mississauga Lakeshore . but perhaps some of the ridings are closer than were aware of . this riding a safe ndp seat provincially and many though Singh could of won here if he had ever decided to try and win it. but been liberal federally for years except for 2011 when it went cpc. But possible ndp more of a long term issue for liberals here if there able to build on support and find higher profile candidates.
05/09/21 Mizisuga
While not to the level I predicted, Jagmeet Singh increased the NDP's vote share in all Brampton ridings, despite it faltering nationally. He was an MPP in Brampton East and his leadership may have increased awareness of the New Democrats in regions with many South Asian residents, like Brampton.
The Liberals will carry all Brampton ridings at current polling numbers. However, I predict the NDP could place a strong second place in several Brampton ridings and pose a realistic threat to the Liberals going forward.
29/07/21 A.S.
The riding where Jagmeet would likely have run last time were he not byelectioned away to Burnaby instead...perhaps saving his skin in the process; or else open something *really* interesting possibilities up. Now, his present popularity re-opens those interesting possibilities, which in '19 were limited to this being the only 905-belt Dipper 2nd place besides Oshawa. It's still a long shot--the kind of thing that might require an over-50-seat-and-official-opposition-in-a-weakened-Lib-minority scenario--but I'll withhold just to bow to the TikTok.
29/05/21 KXS
Most likely a Liberal hold, but I think the NDP has an outside chance of winning this riding.
Brampton, especially this part of the city, has been hit hard with COVID. The NDP could take advantage of anti-incumbency sentiments towards the Ontario PCs/federal Liberals.

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