Election Prediction Project

Brampton Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-11 10:12:11

Constituency Profile


Ali, Shafqat

McDowell, Jim

Shino, Ronni

Singh, Jagdeep


Ramesh Sangha

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



43.70 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ramesh Sangha ** 1877147.20%
Pawanjit Gosal 1069626.90%
Jordan Boswell 781919.70%
Pauline Thornham 16854.20%
Baljit Bawa 6811.70%
David Gershuny 1060.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ramesh Sangha 1927748.60%
Bal Gosal ** 1334533.70%
Rosemary Keenan 599315.10%
Saul Marquard T. Bottcher 8442.10%
Frank Chilelli 1730.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2050.59%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (49.07% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (44.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (5.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Sara Singh 1289238.37%
Harjit Jaswal 1280338.11%
Safdar Hussain 582517.34%
Laila Zarrabi Yan 10533.13%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2270.81%

05/09/21 Mizisuga
While not to the level I predicted, Jagmeet Singh increased the NDP's vote share in all Brampton ridings, despite it faltering nationally. He was an MPP in Brampton East and his leadership may have increased awareness of the New Democrats in regions with many South Asian residents, like Brampton.
The Liberals will carry all Brampton ridings at current polling numbers. However, I predict the NDP could place a strong second place in several Brampton ridings and pose a realistic threat to the Liberals going forward.
05/09/21 Wildflower
People do not want a 2 tier healthcare system
People want more action on climate change, and social housing .Way more job creation.
Although, NDP could win other ridings near by if Jagmeet singh uses his Punjabi magic to convince people to vote for him and his party platform....
For the time being, I see Liberals holding this seat
19/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as liberal mp Ramesh Sangha was removed from caucus and an independent but choose not to run again. This riding is actually held by the ndp provincially which seems hard to believe but they did win here in 2018 but federal party yet to even reveal a candidate.
11/08/21 Dr Bear
I agree with KXS fully here. I do not see why this seat in particular is TCTC while the rest of Brampton is not. Not saying it is not competitive, just that right now there isn’t any signs that the Liberals will lose seats in the Peel region.
09/08/21 Sam
I agree that there's no reason to mark this up as TCTC if the other Brampton seats are (rightfully) marked as safe Liberal. The Tories' ceiling is too low for them here thanks to the South Asian population, and the Liberals will as always hoover up most of the non-Tory vote.
30/07/21 KXS
Not sure why this is seen as TCTC, while all other Brampton seats are projected for the Liberals. Under the current political climate, the Liberals should hold on to all seats in this area.
Ramesh Sangha is not running again, but it will not matter a bit.
29/07/21 A.S.
The fact that the Lib incumbent got himself booted from caucus isn't in its own right likely to wreck the party's chances of a hold--but a Jagmeet hometown-bandwagon-at-long-last *could*. Or maybe it could just split the opposition on the Libs' behalf; but even without such booting, it was marginally the Lib-weakest of Brampton's seats
04/07/21 seasaw
This one's a bit hard to predict. The Liberals won huge here the last time, but it doesn't mean that they're going to do it again this time. This is one of those ridings that people's mood could turn in a heartbeat, so it all depends on what the people's moods are on election day.

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