Election Prediction Project

Beaches-East York
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:13:13

Constituency Profile


DeBoer, Reuben Anthony

Erskine-Smith, Nathaniel

Fernandez, Philip

Moxon, Jennifer

Rautescu, Radu

Robinson, Lisa

Ruiz Vargas, Alejandra

Wilde, Karen Lee


Nathaniel Erskine-Smith

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16.64 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith ** 3264757.20%
Mae J. Nam 1219621.40%
Nadirah Nazeer 802614.10%
Sean Manners 33785.90%
Deborah McKenzie 8311.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith 2745849.40%
Matthew Kellway ** 1711330.80%
Bill Burrows 912416.40%
Randall Sach 14332.60%
James Sears 2540.50%
Roger Carter 1050.20%
Peter Surjanac 430.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1300.27%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Beaches-East York
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rima Berns-Mcgown 2406448.21%
Arthur Potts * 1348027.01%
Sarah Mallo 920218.44%
Debra Scott 21284.26%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6821.59%

13/09/21 jeff316
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith understands that to hold a slightly lefty riding like this one he has to cultivate the sense that he's a maverick in the riding while quietly playing his third-line role for the Red Team in Ottawa away from the daily glare of his constituents. The Liberals lose ridings Beaches-East York when they appear to lose touch with streetwise common sense or become subsumed with team politics. Erskine-Smith gets this; he is Ted McMeekin-esque in his ability to be seen as not toeing all of the party's lines while quietly toeing all of the ones that are actually meaningful to his survival in Ottawa. This is exactly what residents in the Beaches want - to be seen a litle different, but still fit-in. As long as he can continue this approach, he will never lose. Politics at its finest.
11/09/20 Not Non-Partisan
With the announcement that the conservatives are dumping their candidate here a very large pool of votes are now up for grabs. Do Tories sit on their hands? Do the NDP pivot and assign B-EY a greater than current priority in the few remaining days? Who knows, this could be closer than I previously thought.
04/09/21 JC
The Beaches is a little village, NES is from the riding, checks all the boxes for what people in the key polls in the area want, its his seat until he decides to drop it. It would be surprising if it is competitive.
04/09/21 NES convert
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith should win handily regardless of how well or badly the Liberals do. He has been an excellent M.P.; his constituency work has been outstanding. His independent stance will bring a significant portion of the swing NDP-Liberal vote.
19/08/21 Laurence Putnam
Incumbent has been successful in cementing himself here with strong name recognition. Would take an incredibly strong NDP candidate in an incredibly strong NDP year to wrest it back. Not the case.
16/08/21 BTG
Erskine Smith is near certain to win - this riding sometimes goes NDP (Kellway won in 2011) but it requires a Liberal collapse, as incumbents are usually safe
16/08/21 Not Non-Partisan
Changing socio-economic demographics have made this progressively less socialist than it once was. While a significant core NDP vote remains, it isn’t enough to offset the continued arrival of wealthier, younger centre-ish voters. Nate is a lock here.
14/08/21 Hammer
My home riding. I anticipate Erskine Smith and the Liberals to win in October. Interesting tidbit: Valerie Bradford, mother of the local city councillor Brad Bradford, is running for the Liberals in Kitchener South Hespeler.
30/07/21 MF
Beaches-East York used to be one of the top two or three ridings in Toronto for the NDP, but it's clearly a second-tier target now. In the last election NES won with the biggest margin of victory in the history of the riding. The Beaches is very ‘Brahmin Liberal’ now and the ‘East York’ part is multicultural Liberal Toronto. NES may get a boost from soft Dippers and Greens for his independent streak.
18/07/21 A.S.
NES definitely was one of '19's bigger Lib ground-gainers; however, when it comes to ballooning margins, let's keep in mind that he was facing Matthew Kellaway's NDP incumbency in '15. With the no-longer-incumbent Dippers in no position to mount a serious challenge in BEY in '19 (last-minute faint-hope Jagmeetmania notwithstanding), the promiscuous left-vote gathered around Nathaniel Two-Names--of course, it didn't hurt that he was less the barking seal than most Liberal incumbents, and probably the most ‘grassroots urban activist’ of Toronto's MPs this side of Adam Vaughan. Worth noting, too, that he did better than Maria Minna ever did during her 90s/00s tenure. If the margin narrows this time, it'll be a token reflection of how Jagmeet's stronger going into this election than he was going into '19. But look; it's a narrowing from *36 points*.
11/07/21 Stevo
NES is one of the best MPs the Liberals have got. He's far from Trudeau's inner circle, which actually bodes well for his future. His margin ballooned in 2019 vs 2015, going against the trend that election. Another easy win this time.
04/06/21 Chris N
The Liberals will hold this seat. While Erskine-Smith's reputation as a maverick is a tad generous, he has a lot of support in the riding and was re-elected with a large margin in 2019.
24/05/21 seasaw
Nathaniel Erskine Smith is one amazing MP, he'll have no problem getting re-elected

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