Election Prediction Project

Bay of Quinte
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:34:44

Constituency Profile


Bell, Stephanie

Charlton, Erica

Ellis, Neil

LeClerc, Janine

Williams, Ryan


Neil Ellis

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1621.34 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Neil Ellis ** 2409939.20%
Tim Durkin 2265036.80%
Stephanie Bell 985116.00%
Danny Celovsky 37406.10%
Paul Bordonaro 12072.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Neil Ellis 2928150.70%
Jodie Jenkins 1978134.30%
Terry Cassidy 700112.10%
Rachel Nelems 12782.20%
Trueman Tuck 3720.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2650.53%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Prince Edward-Hastings
   (60.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Northumberland-Quinte West
   (39.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Todd Smith * 2422448.02%
Joanne Belanger 1606331.84%
Robert Quaiff 751114.89%
Mark Daye 17303.43%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3540.82%

19/09/21 Gsg
In a close riding, it’s all about getting the vote out. Conservative Ryan Williams has definitely won the sign war and his pre-election door knocking will pay off. He will win the riding.
18/09/21 KXS
If the election was held 2 or 3 weeks ago, this would've been a clear CPC pick up.
The Liberals are polling well in Ontario and it's clear that the Conservatives have lost some support to the PPC.
This will be a close one, but I believe Neil Ellis will hold on.
15/09/21 Sam
Interesting that none of the parties seem to have gone here - I would guess their internals have it gone already to the CPC. With a reduced Liberal lead in Ontario the path to even a Liberal majority doesn't run here anymore. And large sample polls of Ontario still have very good numbers for the CPC in Eastern Ontario - nearly 50%.
The popularity Ellis had from his mayoral term has worn off a bit, and those dissatisfied with the government are not going to vote for him regardless how he was as Mayor. It looks like the CPC candidate is also a strong one. Meaning, there's nothing local to undermine the upper hand the CPC have here.
08/09/21 Nick M.
Unless there is a local dynamic, like a migration of government work from home employees flooding into Bay of Quinte, I cant find any reason for this riding not to flip CPC.
Can anyone think of a local reason for the LPC to hold?
05/09/21 prognosticator15
Neil Ellis was able to hold this riding in 2019 due to his widely recognized name in municipal politics, and while he will certainly still have substantial support in Belleville, Cons candidate Ryan Williams is also well known in the area. A push to defeat Libs in Eastern Ontario is too strong now for Ellis to repeat his unexpected 2019 success, and gives Cons a realistic hope of swiping Eastern Ontario save for Liberal Kingston, with BOQ likely the first to fall. Unlike Toronto area, Libs no longer can expect voters here to support their brand even with minor shifts in polls in their favour if such occur later in the campaign (with the help of friendly mass media) - it will not help in this area. NDP like CPC may pick up a small number of Libs upset with election call, and some upset with presumed Libs 'empty shell' image, but not enough to make NDP competitive here. BOQ is a perfect riding to pick for O'Toole, with a military background as it is one of the few in Canada where the military constitutes a substantial proportion of population and has an impact of broader community. The Afghan debacle in the midst of the campaign will help Cons to increase the vote. On the same issue, foreign events have rarely affected recent Canadian elections no matter the interest group activities - even Iraq in 2004 was arguably a top issue for rather few voters (not a reason for Stephen Harper's unexpected loss to Paul Martin back then), yet there has not been such a major issue as Afghanistan appearing in voters' minds very suddenly right in the midst of the election campaign. The media will put the best spin on the Libs for this (as they shamefully do with Biden in the USA), yet even with Canada not expected to play such a major role as the USA, an obvious disaster may dent the Libs in some ridings. These would not be ridings with relevant ministers on Afghan file (ex, Mendicino in Liberal-safe central Toronto), but more likely ridings like BOQ, with large military population as well as a close-by Peterborough-Kawartha, with its ‘our Taliban brothers’ high-profile Liberal, a position very far from Liberal soft voters' opinion. O'Toole is quite good at trying to turn this into an election issue for the whole country as well, a promising move to turn some Libs into soft Cons, but it is here in Eastern Ontario where it plays out best, whether by design or by chance of Lib gaffes solidifying an already definitive shift to CPC in the area as a response to Libs in general. It remains a question of how many Lib ridings fall in the area, but this one may be called Cons already based on high probabilities.
03/09/21 R.O.
This riding has only existed in these boundaries since 2015 when Neil Ellis first elected . prior to that it was part of a larger conservative riding which included rural northern areas . although the riding had been liberal in the 90’s . the riding was very close in 2019 despite the fact Ellis was the incumbent and cpc candidate not that high profile , so likely competitive this election as well. Conservatives have a new candidate this election Ryan Williams and Stephanie Bell has returned for the ndp.
16/08/21 Barry
Perhaps a bit early to be calling it for the Conservatives, but Ryan Williams has been pro-active and very well organized. Given that Tim Durkin gave Neil Ellis a good run in 2019, I think that Ryan Williams will receive more votes than Tim and Neil will have a tough time keeping his level from 2019. My prediction is also based on what I believe will be disillusioned left of centre Liberal votes going to a strong NDP candidate.
10/08/21 Neal
I live here and this one is , for the moment too close to call. We have a former Mayor in Neil Eliis going up for the Liberals against a well known businessman and former Belleville City Councillor in Ryan Williams for the Conservatives. In Belleville, City Councillors must rn City wide campaigns like the Mayor does, so he's known all over town.
In 2019, i never expected Tim Durking to make it as close as he did against the once popular formwr Mayor Ellis, so i would say there is some vulnerability here. So this riding , to the extent that local issues contribute to the outcome, will be decided by wo hustles the hardest. That said, the national factors also count. I dont see Justin trudeau as being popular here at all, and given our sizeable military community, both veterans and active forces, O'Toole may very well resonate with them.
So a few days before the writ drops, i will say we have a highly competitive riding here, and it cannot be called either way at this point. I shall certainly weigh in again as clarity develops. .... if it develops.
25/06/21 Stevo
Yes, this one will be a fight. If the Conservatives can't manage to take back a riding like this, then all hope of improving on their 2019 performance in Ontario will be lost. One wild card is how the Covid-fueled migration out of Toronto will impact surrounding rural and exurban communities. Bay of Quinte might be too far east to be much affected by that.
21/06/21 GSG
Too early to predict as we don't even know the election date, but Mr. Ellis will be facing a determined, well known and hard working opponent in the Conservative camp. It appears that Ryan Williams has already set up offices and been door knocking. The early and well organized campaign of Mr. Williams will play an important role if he is to win. Given that Mr. Ellis's margin of victory in 2019 was much less than in 2015,( ~ 1300 vs ~10,000) this will be an interesting riding to watch.
08/08/21 A.S.
What's weird about BOQ is how unique it is as a Lib riding in Ontario that swung from solid in '15 to supermarginal in '19--like the inverse of those heartland CPC survivors that went from Justinmania-induced supermarginal in '15 to status-quo solid in '19. So it obviously presents itself as CPC ‘unfinished business’ to the max; though whether the adjacent nuclear shadow of Derek Sloan kneecaps such hopes through schism remains to be seen. For the record, in the '19 split, Quinte West & N PEC went CPC, while Belleville and S PEC went Liberal--and of course, O'Toole as a CAF Air Command veteran ought to go over well within CFB Trenton environs (but well enough?)

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