Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:06:24

Constituency Profile


Brancato, Corrado

Brassard, John

Gostkowski, Aleesha

Wilson, Lisa-Marie


John Brassard

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



331.08 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

John Brassard ** 2376543.80%
Lisa-Marie Wilson 1587929.30%
Pekka Reinio 888016.40%
Bonnie North 47168.70%
Stephanie Robinson 10131.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John Brassard 2290146.40%
Colin Wilson 1830837.10%
Myrna Clark 581211.80%
Bonnie North 19914.00%
Gary Nail 1990.40%
Jeff Sakula 1300.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2580.63%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.56% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Andrea Khanjin 2212149.97%
Pekka Reinio 1266128.6%
Ann Hoggarth * 554312.52%
Bonnie North 31907.21%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2900.79%

03/09/21 R.O.
John Brassard was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019 , which were the only 2 elections this riding existed in these exact boundaries . although the area has been mostly conservative over the years with some liberal wins in the 90’s-2000-04 elections. One has to wonder what this area will look like down the road with new growth and new residents but as for this election its likely to stay cpc.
24/08/21 Chris N
With increasing housing development and the mass exodus of Torontonians to the region, it will be interesting to see if the riding is still a Conservative stronghold, say, 5 to 10 years from now. Until then, this should be a safe CPC seat.
04/08/21 A.S.
I don't think there was *that* much expectation of a close race in '19--after all, unlike the BSOM knife-edge next door, Brassard was already sitting on nearly a 10-point margin; and esp. in the aftermath of SNC-Lavalin, there was little expectation of the Libs to be in any position to defeat any Conservatives so well-cushioned (and much of that loose left vote migrated to NDP/Green anyway, so Brassard wound up w/a bigger cushion on a lower share). While CPC doldrum polling doesn't work on Brassard's behalf, further opposition vote splitting, plus maybe a post-Barrie-tornado sympathy vote, might.
04/07/21 seasaw
Many expected this riding to be close the last time, but Brassard took it by a comfortable margin. It may or may not be closer this time, but he is going to win here again.

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