Alleslev, Leona
	Hagan, Janice
	Korovitsyn, Serge
	Siskos, Anthony
	Taylor Roy, Leah
Incumbent:
	Leona Alleslev

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			115227 106064 36164 35222 94.63 km² 1217.70/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Leona Alleslev **	23568	44.40%
	Leah Taylor Roy	22508	42.40%
	Aaron Brown	3820	7.20%
	Timothy Flemming	2154	4.10%
	Priya Patil	530	1.00%
	Serge Korovitsyn	529	1.00%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Leona Alleslev	24132	47.30%
	Costas Menegakis **	23039	45.20%
	Brenda Power	2912	5.70%
	Randi Ramdeen	654	1.30%
	Kyle Bowles	243	0.50%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		20223	51.51%
		6263	15.95%
		10941	27.87%
		1364	3.47%
Other		472	1.20%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Oak Ridges-Markham    (52.73% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Richmond Hill    (23.95% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Newmarket-Aurora    (23.32% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Michael Parsa	25214	56.03%
	Naheed Yaqubian	9718	21.6%
	Katrina Sale	8116	18.04%
	Stephanie Nicole Duncan	1195	2.66%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		15758	45.72%
		13136	38.11%
		3629	10.53%
		1195	3.47%
Other		747	2.17%

	18/09/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
The lack of a Green candidate and uptick of PPC support will benefit the Liberals here.
	02/09/21	Predictions 70.31.104.47
Remember, Alleslev won this in 2019 when she had more floor-crossing baggage and the CPC did very poorly in Ontario, even York Region. With better polling numbers, the Tories should be able to hold this one pretty handily.
	27/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Leona Allesev has held this riding since 2015 although originally elected as a liberal but now conservative. This riding is a suburban swing area near Toronto so often produces close races. Leah Taylor Roy was also the liberal candidate in 2019 so a rematch. Typically very little ndp here and they’ve yet to announce a candidate. But still think Allesev holds it as long as the cpc remains competitive in Ontario.
	26/08/21	Nick M. 172.219.67.212
Grew up here, and like all 905 we vote for party, never the candidate. CPC is worst case expected to Finnish 1 point below Liberal provincially in the federal election, that translates into safe CPC in 905.
	25/08/21	Drew613 173.32.44.138
A new Mainstreet riding poll for Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill has the Liberals with a substantial 13 point lead on the Conservatives 47 to 34. This is well outside the poll's MOE of 5%. This is very much in alignment with Mainstreet's GTHA regional poll for the same timeframe showing the Liberals at 49% in York Region. Time to move this one from TCTC to the Grits. https://archive.ph/zP1F6#selection-871.136-871.167
	23/08/21	Drew613 198.103.96.11
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding 14 point lead in the greater GTHA and 49% support in York Region. I think this will be close, but will be a Liberal gain. Certainly one to watch on election night. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Compounding Alleslev's knife-edge is the fact that as a Conservative in '19, she won with a lower share than incumbent Costas Menegakis earned in loss in '15. In fact, it's hard not to imagine that had she stuck by her former Liberal allegiances, she'd have won with a near-identical share and margin--so if Alleslev thought she was saving herself from oblivion by party-jumping, it turned out to make no difference at all. Though a lot of pundits spooked by said party jump as well as SNC-Lavalin and the provincial shadow of '18 were probably just as surprised that the post-Alleslev Libs wouldn't say die; so for LTR to give it a second go in the name of ‘unfinished business’ makes perfect sense.
	08/07/21	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
Leona Alleslev only won this riding by about 1,000 votes as a Liberal in 2015, and only by about 1,000 votes as a Conservative in 2019. So this riding appears to be a close one. It could be close again this time. The question is, can Liberal candidate Leah Taylor Roy prevail?
	05/07/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
It's pre-mature to call this riding for the Conservatives when they won this by a small margin in 2019.
	04/07/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
Though Leona Alleslev may be perceived as a turncoat, she is still quite popular in this neck of the woods. Expect her to win by a bigger margin this time, even if the CPC were to lose the election.
	07/08/21	MF 70.27.132.108
Leona Alleslev could have won this either as a Liberal or Conservative it seems. Given the close result it could go either way - but being York Region, don't expect a Milton '19 type result this time.