Election Prediction Project

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-06 12:13:02

Constituency Profile


Alleslev, Leona

Hagan, Janice

Korovitsyn, Serge

Siskos, Anthony

Taylor Roy, Leah


Leona Alleslev

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



94.63 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Leona Alleslev ** 2356844.40%
Leah Taylor Roy 2250842.40%
Aaron Brown 38207.20%
Timothy Flemming 21544.10%
Priya Patil 5301.00%
Serge Korovitsyn 5291.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Leona Alleslev 2413247.30%
Costas Menegakis ** 2303945.20%
Brenda Power 29125.70%
Randi Ramdeen 6541.30%
Kyle Bowles 2430.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4721.20%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (52.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Richmond Hill
   (23.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (23.32% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Parsa 2521456.03%
Naheed Yaqubian 971821.6%
Katrina Sale 811618.04%
Stephanie Nicole Duncan 11952.66%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7472.17%

18/09/21 KXS
The lack of a Green candidate and uptick of PPC support will benefit the Liberals here.
02/09/21 Predictions
Remember, Alleslev won this in 2019 when she had more floor-crossing baggage and the CPC did very poorly in Ontario, even York Region. With better polling numbers, the Tories should be able to hold this one pretty handily.
27/08/21 R.O.
Leona Allesev has held this riding since 2015 although originally elected as a liberal but now conservative. This riding is a suburban swing area near Toronto so often produces close races. Leah Taylor Roy was also the liberal candidate in 2019 so a rematch. Typically very little ndp here and they’ve yet to announce a candidate. But still think Allesev holds it as long as the cpc remains competitive in Ontario.
26/08/21 Nick M.
Grew up here, and like all 905 we vote for party, never the candidate.
CPC is worst case expected to Finnish 1 point below Liberal provincially in the federal election, that translates into safe CPC in 905.
25/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet riding poll for Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill has the Liberals with a substantial 13 point lead on the Conservatives 47 to 34. This is well outside the poll's MOE of 5%. This is very much in alignment with Mainstreet's GTHA regional poll for the same timeframe showing the Liberals at 49% in York Region. Time to move this one from TCTC to the Grits. https://archive.ph/zP1F6#selection-871.136-871.167
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding 14 point lead in the greater GTHA and 49% support in York Region. I think this will be close, but will be a Liberal gain. Certainly one to watch on election night. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
04/08/21 A.S.
Compounding Alleslev's knife-edge is the fact that as a Conservative in '19, she won with a lower share than incumbent Costas Menegakis earned in loss in '15. In fact, it's hard not to imagine that had she stuck by her former Liberal allegiances, she'd have won with a near-identical share and margin--so if Alleslev thought she was saving herself from oblivion by party-jumping, it turned out to make no difference at all. Though a lot of pundits spooked by said party jump as well as SNC-Lavalin and the provincial shadow of '18 were probably just as surprised that the post-Alleslev Libs wouldn't say die; so for LTR to give it a second go in the name of ‘unfinished business’ makes perfect sense.
08/07/21 Marco Ricci
Leona Alleslev only won this riding by about 1,000 votes as a Liberal in 2015, and only by about 1,000 votes as a Conservative in 2019. So this riding appears to be a close one. It could be close again this time. The question is, can Liberal candidate Leah Taylor Roy prevail?
05/07/21 KXS
It's pre-mature to call this riding for the Conservatives when they won this by a small margin in 2019.
04/07/21 seasaw
Though Leona Alleslev may be perceived as a turncoat, she is still quite popular in this neck of the woods. Expect her to win by a bigger margin this time, even if the CPC were to lose the election.
07/08/21 MF
Leona Alleslev could have won this either as a Liberal or Conservative it seems. Given the close result it could go either way - but being York Region, don't expect a Milton '19 type result this time.

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