Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:28:33

Constituency Profile


Baarda, Clarence

Hughes, Carol

Jaaskelainen, Harry

Peltier, Duke

Sagman, John

Zimmermann, Stephen


Carol Hughes

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



93436.34 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Carol Hughes ** 1688341.60%
Dave Williamson 1062526.20%
Heather Wilson 987924.30%
Max Chapman 21925.40%
Dave Delisle 8872.20%
Le Marquis De Marmalade 1250.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carol Hughes ** 1651639.90%
Heather Wilson 1411134.10%
André Robichaud 982023.70%
Calvin John Orok 9272.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 110.03%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (91.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Sault Ste. Marie
   (8.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Nickel Belt
   (0.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Mantha * 1710558.56%
Jib Turner 714324.45%
Charles Fox 23658.1%
Tommy Lee 13664.68%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4411.66%

19/09/21 jeff316
MPs from the territories or northern prairies love to opine on how hard they have it servicing rural and fly-in areas, but in reality Al-Man-Kap is Canada's worst riding, for both representing and campaigning. Why? Well, the Franco-Anglo divide doesn't make it easy to win a solid plurality, with the francophone areas with a history of NDP voting and the rust belt anglophone towns flirting with the Conservatives or CPC.
But mostly, it's about drivability. On paper, this riding is drivable. So everyone expects instant access. They expect you to attend every meeting. Try hitting three of your towns in one go - Manitoulin to Chapleau to Hearst will take you a whopping 11 hours by car. This riding is a life killer and an MP killer and Hughes has not only survived, but bridged that linguistic gap somewhat and made a good name for herself. I never though she'd last but was I ever wrong. This is hers until retirement or some crazy political wave upends everything.
15/09/21 NJam101
Definitely Carol Hughes. She is the only bilingual candidate. Both the CPC and LPC candidates have English-only web pages. And this riding has towns such as Hearst and Kapuskasing and other majority francophone communities. Elliot Lake is the largest community and Hughes does well there. Hughes can also count on big support in towns such as Chapleau, Wawa and Espanola. The Indigenous population heavily supports her.
21/08/21 R.O.
Carol Hughes has been mp since 2008 in what had been a traditionally liberal riding although she’s never really faced much of a challenge and likely to hold this year.
09/08/21 A.S.
Given the cushion she's sitting on, it'd be a bit bold and brash to bet against Hughes this time (it was easier to be circumspect in '19, given the closeness of her '15 margin and Jagmeet's early doldrums). However, I'd keep a careful eye on that CPC 2nd place, which many *weren't* betting on in '19 (assuming that the re-running Lib candidate was the pole-position opponent)--it was part of a pattern of elevated CPC shares in Northern Ontario that seemed to foretell a Red/Orange Wall strategy on the Cons' part. And who knows how much O'Toole's blue-collar-Cons rhetoric is meant as a furthering-the-path outreach to workers in the North--that is, if it works in the BC Interior, why shouldn't it work in Northern Ontario? Electorally bridging Western Canada to Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, so to speak. Though such strategy works better against a sitting Liberal government than against the NDP breed of populist-outsiderdom--which is why they had to settle for the ‘moral victory’ of 2nd places in both of N Ontario's remaining NDP ridings...
06/06/21 Chris N
The NDP was able to hold onto this riding during the 2015 Trudeau wave despite other Northern Ontario NDP ridings turned red. I suspect it will stay with Hughes and the NDP next election.
13/05/21 ME
A safe NDP seat ...according to 338

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