Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:28:24

Constituency Profile


Awan, Arshad

Holland, Mark

Hughes, Monique

Paulseth, Leigh


Mark Holland

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



67.00 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mark Holland ** 3519857.70%
Tom Dingwall 1586426.00%
Shokat Malik 703311.50%
Maia Knight 20403.30%
Susanna Russo 5881.00%
Allen Keith Hadley 1860.30%
Intab Ali 1110.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Holland 3145855.90%
Chris Alexander ** 1937434.40%
Stephanie Brown 46308.20%
Jeff Hill 7881.40%
Bob Kesic 570.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 530.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rod Phillips 1907839.05%
Monique Hughes 1513030.97%
Joe Dickson * 1260725.8%
Stephen Leahy 12242.51%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2140.53%

14/09/21 R.O.
Mark Holland has been mp for this area since 2004 minus the 2011 election when he lost to Chris Alexander. The cpc has a new candidate this election Arshad Awan who hasn’t run federally before . the ndp candidate is Monique Hughes. The pc’s won this riding in 2018 when Rod Phillips first elected although been a strong liberal riding federally and the parties generally don’t find strong candidates to challenge Holland here despite the riding being part of the suburban 905 belt.
05/09/21 Wildflower
People may vote for Mark Holland this time around because he is well liked in the riding as a person.
People do not want a 2 tier healthcare system
People want more action on climate change, and social housing .Way more job creation
20/08/21 DurhamDave
This is Mark Holland's riding. Unless the LPC have a disastrous night and totally collapse in Ontario, which I don't think is likely, veteran MP Holland should easily hold it.
14/08/21 Hammer
I always felt like the Conservatives should be more competitive here. Ajax is prototypically middle class, a lot of commuters, small business owning types, lots of cops, and less gentile than other GTA suburbs like York or Halton. Still, with the exception of the 2011 Harper majority and a star candidate in Chris Alexander, this riding has been reliably red. Holland is a veteran MP, and despite being the government whip, will likely be eying a larger cabinet role if the Liberals form government again.
06/08/21 A.S.
It might be some kind of Con-camp hardwiring that it's still the Ajax of 20-30 years ago that's led them to fling ‘stars’ like Chris Alexander and (provincially) Rod Phillips at it, only to never quite win as emphatically as they hoped. This time maybe they can stake their hopes on this being broadly ‘O'Toole country’; but instead, the way things are going, we might as well be seeing a CPC/NDP race for 2nd instead.
09/06/21 Chris N
Holland won this riding by a strong margin in 2015 and 2019. Unless the Conservatives can reach 2011 Harper-level support, it is likely to stay Liberal next election.
15/05/21 MF
Ajax had the top Liberal vote share in the 905 last time. Many South Asian and Black Torontonians have moved to Ajax.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster