Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 21:59:25

Constituency Profile


Brodeur, Gilles

Francoeur, Martin

Holman, Andrew

Landry, Jean

Levesque, Yves

Simidzija, Adis

Villemure, René


Louise Charbonne

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



125.46 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Louise Charbonne 1724028.50%
Valérie Renaud-Martin 1577426.10%
Yves Lévesque 1524025.20%
Robert Aubin ** 1009016.70%
Marie Duplessis 14922.50%
Marc André Gingras 5650.90%
Ronald St-Onge Lynch 1370.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Robert Aubin ** 1919331.80%
Yvon Boivin 1822430.20%
Dominic Therrien 1123118.60%
André Valois 1024917.00%
Éric Trottier 10321.70%
Maxime Rousseau 3600.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5831.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (75.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (24.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 Philly D.
With regards to the Mainstreet poll just mentioned, it has an extremely implausible result, with the NDP at *2%*, which is basically 1993-2000 Quebec levels!!! They will probably get 8-10% here, and none of it will come off the Conservatives, so the latter should probably be able to pull it off, especially since the choice of BQ candidate was not fully accepted by some members of the party executive and the Liberal candidate had had some local controversy.
18/09/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet poll has a 3-way race between the CPC, Libs & BQ with the CPC holding a small 4 point lead, which is within the poll's MoE. This will be one to watch on election night. https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TroisRivieres-iPolitics-16September2021.pdf
17/09/21 Marco Ricci
CTV reports that Trudeau visited Trois-Rivières yesterday, Trudeau's 2nd visit of the campaign. This could mean that internal polls are still showing a close race here. If there's another close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, the BQ could come up the middle again.
17/09/21 R.O.
Noticed there is a mainstreet poll for this riding , cpc ahead but still very close . 34 cpc , 31 bloc and 30 lib with other parties barely registering here.
13/09/21 Dr Bear
I’m feeling gutsy, so I’m making a call for the CPC. With a week or so to go till e-day and in Quebec, the BQ are down about five points, the CPC up about three and the Liberals unchanged. Couple that with a star candidate for the CPC and I think that team blue will eke out a victory,
02/09/21 R.O.
This is the Quebec riding all the main parties want as it was very close in 2019 and features no incumbent this year as rookie bloc mp Louise Charbonneau is not running. Rene villemure is the new bloc Quebecois candidate. Yves Levesque the former mayor of Trois Rivieres is back as the conservative candidate after a strong run last election. Martin Francoeur is the new liberal candidate. Ndp likely less of a factor now that former mp Robert Aubin is not on the ballot. Too early to predict this one
17/08/21 A.S.
It's a little incredible that *both* of QC's primary/traditional ‘small metropolitan centre’ seats turned in sub-30% 3-way-supermarginal victories in '19--though in this case, the NDP incumbent was also-ran rather than runner-up, and it was really the ex-mayoral Con candidate that made the difference. I do agree that if said ex-mayor couldn't do it in '19, there's minimal chance in '21--but the fact that it was the Bloc that finished 1st, not the Libs; and that it was CPC as the 3ed party in the 3-way mix, not the NDP; and that there *isn't* QS representation provincially suggests that the ‘cosmopolitanization’ factor doesn't run as deep in Trois-Rivieres as it does in Sherbrooke. But it's also hard to tell which element skews things more for which side now: the absence of Robert Aubin, or the continued presence of Yves Levesque...
15/08/21 Stevo
I guess even in Trois Rivières - a gentrifying industrial city with a large student population (as noted in my 2015 comment) - people are uncomfortable with a turbaned NDP leader to such an extent that Aubin collapsed to 4th place. But really, a ‘winner’ with 28% of the vote exposes the ludicrousness of Canada's FPTP system.
30/07/21 KXS
As mentioned below, this was one of the true four way races in Quebec last time. This time it will be a two way race between the Bloc and LPC.
The NDP incumbent, Robert Aubin was popular and the CPC was running their long-time former mayor Yves Lévesque. Despite this, the Bloc and Liberals ended up first and second respectively.
Yves Lévesque is running again for the CPC, but there appears to be less momentum for them in Quebec.
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lors des dernières élections, l'une des plus intéressantes luttes à quatre au Québec. Le Bloc l'a emporté en se faufilant. Tant qu'on ne connaîtra par les candidats de chaque parti, il est trop tôt pour déclarer un gagnant, mais le Bloc part avec un net avantage.

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