Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:21:32

Constituency Profile


Berger, Marie-Clarisse

Boivin, Maxime

Brière, ?lisabeth

Haidar, Ensaf

Lalime, Marika

Niculescu, Marcela

Winters, Andrea


Élisabeth Brière

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



99.48 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Élisabeth Brière 1749029.30%
Pierre-Luc Dusseault ** 1688128.30%
Claude Forgu 1547025.90%
Dany Sévigny 636210.70%
Mathieu Morin 27164.50%
Edwin Moreno 4710.80%
Steve Côté 2190.40%
Hubert Richard 1170.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre-Luc Dusseault ** 2141037.40%
Thomas ''Tom'' Allen 1707129.80%
Caroline Bouchard 1171720.40%
Marc Dauphin 53919.40%
Sophie Malouin 11432.00%
Benoit Huberdeau 3030.50%
Hubert Richard 2650.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2280.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (90.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 J.F. Breton
Gain du Bloc avec la figure bien connue de Ensaf Haidar. Sans compter le coup de pouce du débat en anglais. Les libéraux et le NPD devraient également de cannibaliser et permettre au Bloc de se faufiler.
14/09/21 R.O.
Was somewhat of a funky liberal pick up in 2019 as the riding hadn’t been liberal for decades. And had been ndp from 2011-15 when Pierre Luc Dusseault mp who isn’t running again this election . and bloc held the riding from 98-2008 elections when Serge Cardin mp. tough one to predict some Quebec polls have the bloc doing better , the riding isn’t really a cpc target as its more urban and not one they’ve done well in. the new bloc candidate this year was Ensaf Haidar who isn’t a typical bloc candidate.
21/08/21 kingstonstudent
On paper, Sherbrooke was part of the class of strong NDP Quebec performances in 2019 - along with Berthier-Maskinongé, Jonquière, and Rimouski - that had more do to with the presence of well-known and relatively popular incumbents than any particular enthusiasm for the party. But the provincial riding is one of the handful held by Québec solidaire outside of the island of Montreal, which could make it possible for Pierre-Luc Dusseault's replacement to build a decent base of support. In my view, the main obstacle to that strategy would be Ensaf Haidar's presence on the ballot - at this point, it's too soon to tell whether or not provincial QS voters would prefer a sovereigntist like Haidar as their representative or if her support for banning the niqab (and past flirtation with the PPC) would be a bridge too far.
15/08/21 A.S.
While it's possible-to-likely that the Bloc would have won were it not for Dusseault (and the Libs actually *lost* half a point in victory!), simply ‘being there’ has a way of validating the Liberal option--and Sherbrooke's small-metropolitan status makes it more of a ‘Duceppe Bloc’ than ‘Blanchet Bloc’ place, anyway. Which is also why there was a certain ‘organic’ campus/CEGEP-crowd element to Dusseault's reign that went beyond the purely personal, and carries over into provincial QS representation--and in Dusseault's absence, it might not be *un*-amenable to counterintuitively shifting in an incumbency-favouring ‘Guilbeault Liberal’ direction, instead...
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
La présence d'un député sortant du NPD très en vue et bien implanté a permis aux Libéreaux de l'emporter en 2019, en se faufilant entre le NPD et le Bloc. Sans cette présence néo-démocrate, le Bloc l'aurait sûrement emporté. Du coup, il faudra attendre le nom du candidat bloquiste avec d'émettre un avis plus formel ici.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster