Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:29:15

Constituency Profile


Beaudry-Graham, Jean-Philippe

Breton, Pierre

Brisebois, Yannick

Jasmin, Patrick

Lacroix, Joël

Lalancette, Céline

Larouche, Andréanne

Morin, Mathieu

Schieder, Gerda


Andréanne Larouc

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1370.84 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Andréanne Larouc 2350338.60%
Pierre Breton ** 2260537.10%
Nathalie Clermont 749512.30%
Raymonde Plamondon 37056.10%
Katherine Turgeon 28144.60%
Mariam Sabbagh 4970.80%
Darlène Daviault 2940.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Breton 2295739.00%
Claire Mailhot 1394523.70%
Jocelyn Beaudoin 1309222.20%
Sylvie Fontaine 752912.80%
Simon McMillan 13972.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 J.F. Breton
Courte victoire du Bloc. La récente visite du chef avait sans doute pour but de consolider le vote et de fouetter les troupes. Depuis, le débat en anglais aura donné quelques pourcents de plus.
01/09/21 Lolitha
Mainstreet riding poll has a close race with the Bloc slightly ahead. Among Decided and Leaning:
Bloc 33 Liberals 31 Cons 20
19/08/21 Marco Ricci
With the Liberals leading the BQ in Quأ©bec by 7 points in the latest Lأ©ger poll, it's possible this riding could go back to the Liberals. Former Liberal MP Pierre Breton is running again, but we'll have to see whether the Liberals can maintain that lead until Election Day.
15/08/21 A.S.
Here, I miscalculated as a Lib hold in '19 as ‘size of the '15 margin’ logic failed me--maybe like Saint-Jean, Shefford was just a bit too remote from Montreal (and too Blanchet-adjacent) to withstand a Bloc wave. Still, it's just an other-side version of those tight margins in Argenteuil and Chateauguay, and should be treated accordingly.
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte intéressante à prévoir, comme toujours, dans Shefford. Il faudra attendre de connaître la liste finale des candidats et la performance des Libéraux et Bloquistes au Québec pour désigner un gagnant.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster