Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:02:14

Constituency Profile


Bertrand, Luc

Collette, Jean

Debellefeuille, Claude

Gallant, Linda

Gottman, Joan

Goyette, Marcel

Thivierge, Nicolas


Claude Debellefeuil

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2149.15 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Claude Debellefeuil 2997547.70%
Marc Faubert 1868229.70%
Cynthia Larivière 61169.70%
Joan Gottman 50248.00%
Nahed AlShawa 19973.20%
Alain Savard 7671.20%
Luc Bertrand 3420.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Anne Minh-Thu Quach ** 1872630.40%
Robert Sauvé 1795529.20%
Claude DeBellefeuille 1745228.40%
Albert De Martin 613210.00%
Nicola-Silverado Socrates 8671.40%
Sylvain Larocque 2190.40%
Patricia Domingos 1840.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (74.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (25.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/08/21 A.S.
Used to be a swing riding; then it became a Bloc two-termer; then it became a totally unlikely *NDP* two-termer; and it's fitting that the Dippers fared worse here than in any seat it held going into 2019, like ‘yeah, we know we were a fluke; now, let's move on’. And now it looks to be another at-least two-termer for the person who held it for two terms before. And it's the inverse of Chateauguay-Lacolle, in that it's the blue-collar urban core that's heavily Bloc, and the Huntingdon-Ormstown-Hemmingford rural fringe that's the heart of Lib support. (Even Les Coteaux/Soulanges inclines heavily in a Bloc direction, despite the Montreal-Toronto corridor dynamic.)
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
Claude DeBellefeuille est très bien implanté dans cette circonscription assez nationaliste de la Montérégie. Il l'a emporté par une bonne marge en 2019, il devrait faire de même lors du prochain scrutin.

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