Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:12:14

Constituency Profile


Beaumont Tremblay, Hugo

Bergeron, Valérie

Bouchard, Jacques

Bruneau, Jacynthe

Champagne, François-Philippe

Frazer, Dji-Pé

Gaudet, Marie-Claude

Magnan, Alain

Rouleau, Marie Gabrielle


François-Philippe Champagne

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



34573.41 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

François-Philippe Champagne ** 2310439.60%
Nicole Mor 1995034.20%
Bruno-Pier Courchesne 954216.30%
Barthélémy Boisguérin 30715.30%
Stéphanie Dufresne 18093.10%
Julie Déziel 9381.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

François-Philippe Champagne 2447541.50%
Jean-Yves Tremblay 1224520.80%
Sacki Carignan Deschamps 1129519.20%
Jacques Grenier 959216.30%
Martial Toupin 11441.90%
Jean-Paul Bédard 1960.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 890.16%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (87.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/08/21 A.S.
FPC might technically be ‘not completely safe’; but look--outside of the St. Lawrence Islands (including Perrot) and Gatineau, the only QC seats that fall beyond that Liberal ‘not completely safe’ zone are Brossard-Saint-Lambert and Louis-Hebert. Given that tableau, it's really a generic stacked deck we're dealing with--and w/that under consideration, FPC has actually succeeded quite remarkably to date, and without a p'tit gars Prime Ministerial alibi, yet. I'll bow to the generic by withholding a prediction, though--after all, as it stands, SM-C's *really* incongruous compared to what surrounds it, and the post-Chretien era proved how the seat could still slip into ‘generic’ Bloc-into-Orange-Crush mode if necessary. But for now, in the service of King Justin, it's got no problems parking in the Lib camp: ‘yeah, we went through the Jean Chretien years, we know how to handle this’, etc...
08/07/21 Marco Ricci
Franأ§ois-Philippe Champagne probably has the edge here for now, but he may not be totally safe. J.F. Breton is correct that Champagne is a high-profile cabinet minister, but the BQ finished a strong 2nd here in 2019 and the BQ appears to be running a couple points higher in the polls in 2021. The possibility remains for a close race here.
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
François-Philippe Champagne a été à l'avant-plan du gouvernement Trudeau. C'est un habile politicien, bien en vue, et au diapason de sa circonscription. Réélection après une intéressante lutte contre le Bloc.

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