Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:02:01

Constituency Profile


Benoit, Serge

Cléroux, Jean-Charles

Duteau, Pierre

Fournier, Jeremy

Normandin, Christine

Rioux, Jean

V. Ryan, Leigh


Christine Normand

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



686.33 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Christine Normand 2775044.80%
Jean Rioux ** 1890630.60%
Martin Thibert 661210.70%
Chantal Reeves 47947.70%
André-Philippe Chenail 31275.10%
Marc Hivon 3970.60%
Yvon Savary 2890.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jean Rioux 2002233.20%
Hans Marotte 1755529.10%
Denis Hurtubise 1497924.80%
Stéphane Guinta 654910.80%
Marilyn Redivo 12812.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 R.O.
Christine Normandin was first elected here in 2019 , riding had been liberal in 2015 when Jean Rioux mp whoصs back as the liberal candidate this election. Also been ndp in 2011 but recent history is all bloc Quebecois other than those 2 elections so likely to stay bloc.
12/09/20 Sam
Justin Trudeau visited here yesterday - perhaps a sign that his campaign sees stopping the Bloc as his last chance to secure a government, and to counter any post-debate return to the Bloc. Though I wouldn't read that as this being the tossup and Montarville etc. being already in the Liberal column - I think the only way to really explain the solid performance from the Bloc last time is, as has been said, the lack of a Montreal facing component and this riding having a bit more in common with the non-South Shore ridings, and it's not like that's bad news for the Bloc this time round.
15/08/21 A.S.
One of the Libs' solider incumbent defeats vs the Bloc in '19; which means that while they *might* covet this as a takeback, it's likely not a priority like others--perhaps it's just a touch too far from the Greater Montreal orbit: not North Shore/South Shore enough (and buffered by the Bloc leader, besides)
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
Peu de danger ici pour le député bloquiste sortant, à moins que les Libéraux y présentent un vedette. Victoire par une très intéressante marge en 2019, laquelle devrait se maintenir lors du prochain scrutin.

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