Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:01:41
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Boucher, Caroline-Joan

Desautels, Sébastien

Lepage, André

Pariseau, Sylvain

Sansoucy, Brigitte

Savard-Tremblay, Simon-Pierre


Incumbent:

Simon-Pierre Savard-Trembl

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

102693
99629

47345
44653

1882.70 km²
54.50/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Simon-Pierre Savard-Trembl 2314341.40%
René Vincelette 1190321.30%
Brigitte Sansoucy ** 1029718.40%
Bernard Barré 806214.40%
Sabrina Huet-Côté 20313.60%
Jean-François Bélanger 4780.90%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brigitte Sansoucy 1557828.70%
René Vincelette 1498027.60%
Michel Filion 1320024.30%
Réjean Léveillé 909816.70%
Lise Durand 12432.30%
Ugo Ménard 2700.50%


2011 Results (redistributed)

810815.74%
2696352.36%
27845.41%
1265124.57%
9941.93%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


27/08/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
Simon Tremblay was first elected in 2019 although this has mostly been a bloc Quebecois riding with the exception of 2011-15 when it was ndp. The former 1 time ndp mp Brigitte Sansoucy is running again but likely to stay bloc .
15/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Maybe Sansoucy's onto something in giving this one another go (particularly as she's a class-of-*'15* New Democrat, which involves steelier stuff than being an '11er). To the point where I actually might not rule out a 2nd place finish for her--though no higher than that for her, or anyone who isn't Bloc. (And it really was that lingering Orange Crush-ism that pressed the Bloc into the lowest-40s range in '19; otherwise, this'd be closer to 50% territory for them.)
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
38.23.227.9
Avec la candidate et ex-députée néo-démocrate qui se représente, ça ne peut que diviser le vote, même légèrement, et avantager le député sortant bloquiste. ہ moins d'une contre-performance du Bloc, victoire assurée. Les Libéraux deuxièmes, bien entendu.



Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster