Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:56:05

Constituency Profile


Faour, Ali

Flibotte, Micheline

Lacharité, Manon D.

Léger, Louis

Petrari, Sarah

Robillard, Yves


Yves Robillard

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



52.78 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Yves Robillard ** 2486544.50%
Lizabel Nit 1806932.40%
Sonia Baudelot 54239.70%
Ali Faour 47418.50%
Bao Tran Le 21113.80%
Emilio Migliozzi 4650.80%
Elias Progakis 1430.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Yves Robillard 2232340.90%
Marie-Josée Lemieux 1282723.50%
Patrice Jasmin-Tremblay 1182021.70%
Nicolas Makridis 649811.90%
Lorna Mungur 10571.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 900.19%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (58.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (30.43% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Laval-Les Îles
   (8.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

12/09/20 Sam
Despite being the Bloc's top target in Laval, I think even a reenergised post-debate Bloc (if that is the case) are too far behind to take this one, and the big L liberal (at both levels of government) seems to have cemented a bit more here even if this being home to the only CAQ riding in Laval. There isn't much to say about local dynamics so much barring the incumbency of the 78 year old Yves Robillard and a strong but fairly typical candidate for the Bloc - certainly nothing to change the race.
15/08/21 A.S.
The Laval riding most amenable to a Bloc pickup--but also the one where the Libs gained most in share relative to '15, suggesting an ‘inner-Montrealization’ process that isn't letting up one bit. The Bloc gunning for this as a Laval toehold is still a given; it depends on whether they have the stomach or the chops for scoring at least half the seats in QC the way they managed in peak Bouchard/Duceppe years.
18/05/21 J.F. Breton
Les changements démographiques inhérents à la région de Laval favorisent les Libéraux fédéraux. À moins d'un raz-de-marée bloquiste au Québec, victoire assez facile des Libéraux à Laval.

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