Election Prediction Project

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-01 12:06:00

Constituency Profile


Boulerice, Alexandre

Desrochers, Gisèle

Drolet, Nancy

Fiori, Franco

Perez Hernandez, Surelys

Vaithyanathasarma, Shophika


Alexandre Boulerice

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



10.67 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Alexandre Boulerice ** 2557542.50%
Geneviève Hinse 1457624.20%
Claude And 1430623.80%
Jean Désy 35395.90%
Johanna Sarfati 14052.30%
Jos Guitare Lavoie 3460.60%
Bobby Pellerin 2930.50%
Normand Raymond 860.10%
Gisèle Desrochers 800.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alexandre Boulerice ** 2867249.20%
Claude André 1228321.10%
Nadine Medawar 1206820.70%
Jeremy Dohan 25104.30%
Sameer Muldeen 17833.10%
Laurent Aglat 4950.80%
Peter d'Entremont 3530.60%
Stéphane Chénier 1710.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5581.03%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
   (99.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

01/09/21 R.O.
Alexandre Boulerice was first elected in 2011 and re elected in 2015/19 elections. The riding had previously been bloc Quebecois before he was mp. the liberal candidate is Nancy Drolet a former ice hockey player. The ndp seem likely to hold on to the seats they already have based on there polling numbers.
31/08/21 GritBusters
Boulerice will hold this riding. He won with very little difficulty in 2019, and all three provincial ridings that make up this one are Québec Solidaire strongholds with the PQ in second. I'm not sure where the Liberals will find enough voters to unseat the incumbent.
27/08/21 Physastr Master
This wasn't particularly close last time and the NDP doesn't seem to be imploding much more than they already have in Quebec. It's hard to imagine Boulerice comfortably surviving an apocalyptic election and then losing when the NDP looks poised to pick up at least a few seats nationally. I'm quite confident on this one. NDP call.
17/08/21 Dr Bear
This riding is a natural fit for the NDP, as are many others on the island of Montreal, however the party leader is….problematic… in Quebec. I think the NDP will be smart and let Boulerice to his own devices and keep Singh out of the riding. Besides Boukerice can win this seat on his own accord.
16/08/21 pryanmontreal
Comté sécure pour Boulerice qui est respecté par partisans NPD et non-partisans semblables. La manque de candidats PLC et BQ indique l'emphase que les deux principaux partis adversaires mettent sur Rosemont. Toutes choses étant égales, cette circonscription reste dans le camp orange.
15/08/21 A.S.
Generically-based 338 projections are really thin gruel to base a RLPP Liberal projection upon--look, I agree that the critical Jagmeet-driven NDP leakage in Quebec already happened in 2019, and any additional impression of treading-water or backsliding relative to '19 is skewed by token higher shares in ridings where NDP incumbents were running that year; that is, if things look superficially stagnant, it'd be through the likes of Berthier-Maskinonge ‘exhaling’, not through Rosemonters having ‘second thoughts’. Unlike in 2019 (or the Joe Clark/Andre Bachand Tories in 2000), the NDP isn't going into this election a ‘dead party walking’; and at worst, there's no more reason to eject Boulerice on behalf of ‘a seat at the governing table’ than there is to do likewise w/the Manitoba Liberals in River Heights. In fact, it's likelier that the NDP's poised to build on its Montreal base, maybe not to the point of winning more seats but certainly by soaking up erstwhile ‘urban Bloc left’ energy...
15/08/21 Marco Ricci
The NDP is in a stronger position nationally, but its poll numbers in Quebec remain low. However, I think Boulerice may still be the favourite here. He won comfortably in 2019 and the Liberal and Bloc vote appears split. As long as the Liberal and the BQ vote is split, Boulerice probably still has the edge.
05/08/21 Stevo
The strength of Boulerice's win in a weak election nationally for the NDP suggests that he is no danger of losing this time with the NDP is in a much stronger position. Any Quebecer uncomfortable with Jagmeet Singh already shifted to the Liberals last time.
22/07/21 KXS
The NDP won this seat in 2019 with an 11 000 vote, 18 point margin. Boulerice is a popular incumbent, the QS represents this area at the provincial level and I'm sure the party will pour in resources and efforts to ensure that they retain it.
I don't expect the NDP to gain any seats in Quebec, but I'm sure they won't lose their only seat.
21/07/21 Laurence Putnam
I tend to also think there is an early Liberal edge here, but this is far from a sure thing.
Boulerice is still very much in this, but he's looking to hang on by a thread the way Andre Bachand used to when he was the last Tory standing in Quebec. His luck could run out at any time, he no longer has much profile in Ottawa and he's running against three other left wing parties one of whom would give the constituents of his riding a seat at the governing table.
The BQ is also not to be ruled out, so this could even yet have the makings of a 3-way split. Given the overall trend in the area, my very early guess would be a Liberal edge, but any of the Liberals, NPD or BQ could put this in the winning column on election night.
06/06/21 ME
Rosemont is now leaning Liberal and 338 says it is likely to go Liberal
11/05/21 Ottawa 99
Il est possible que Boulerice recevra moins que 40 % des votes pour la première fois depuis 2008, mais il est presque certain qu'il va gagner.
08/05/21 Chris N
Boulerice is the last NDP MP from the 2011 Orange wave, where over fifty MPs were elected. Despite an NDP nosedive in the Quebec polls in 2019, Boulerice held onto the riding by a surprisingly healthy margin. Like 2019, I don't expect Singh's NDP to resonate with Quebec voters. However, this riding will be the exception, thanks in large part to Boulerice's local popularity.
06/05/21 J.F. Breton
Boulerice est bien implanté dans sa circonscription. Les gens voteront pour lui avant de voter pour le NPD. Bastion montréalais de Québec Solidaire. Seul député du NPD au Québec et ça ne risque pas de changer après ces élections.

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