Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:27:57

Constituency Profile


Beauséjour, Valérie

Bute, Julius

Desilets, Luc

Dionne, Michael

Duffy-Vincelette, Marc

Hakizimana, Joseph

Lapointe, Linda

Roker Jr, Hans

Ware, Alec


Luc Desile

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



115.26 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Luc Desile 2362940.60%
Linda Lapointe ** 2100936.10%
Joseph Hakizimana 50028.60%
Maikel Mikhael 46848.10%
Ceylan Borgers 30155.20%
Hans Roker Jr 8451.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Linda Lapointe 1878732.40%
Laurin Liu ** 1711129.50%
Félix Pinel 1475525.40%
Érick Gauthier 609910.50%
Alec Ware 11362.00%
Luis Quinteros 1580.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (86.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (13.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 J.F. Breton
La remontée du Bloc dans les sondages, suivant le débat en anglais, devrait permettre au Bloc de conserver ses circonscriptions de la banlieue nord de Montréal, typiquement nationalistes et très sensibles aux questions linguistiques.
06/09/21 George
Mainstreet has a small Bloc lead here over the liberals
03/09/21 R.O.
Luc Disilets was first elected in 2019 in a close race against liberal mp Linda Lapointe who is running again. Riding went ndp in 2011 but bloc Quebecois for years before that. Based on current trends I see the riding staying bloc.
19/08/21 Marco Ricci
With the Liberals leading the BQ in Quأ©bec by 7 points in the latest Lأ©ger poll, it's possible this riding could go back to the Liberals. Former Liberal MP Linda Lapointe is running again, but we'll have to see whether the Liberals can maintain that lead until Election Day.
15/08/21 A.S.
Desilets is actually one of the more cultural-class Bloqistes, so it isn't like he's a simple no-name beneficiary of a blip. Still, RDMI *is* the narrowest-margined among the Bloc's Laurentide Liberal pickups; something that hugging the edge of Laval can be prone to fueling (and as w/the other two, the Libs gained ground in defeat)
09/08/21 Sam
It's hard to tell whether the Bloc MP's election last time was a blip due to their strong performance. Yes, this is a nationalist area, but I think the Liberal vote here will hold up so long as Liberals are (seen as) in contention for government, as their Quebec-wide totals indicate. Luc Desilets has not been granted the profile that some of his colleagues have earned, so this riding will be decided by national issues and trends. Too early to call.
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Territoire nationaliste et caquiste par excellence. Terreau fertile pour le Bloc Québécois dans la couronne nord de Montréal. Peu de risque pour le député en place. Cependant, proximité avec Laval, changements démographiques en cours qui avantagent les Libéraux. La lutte pourrait être plus serrée, comme en 2019. Difficile de se prononcer tant qu'on n'aura pas une idée claire de la performance du Bloc.

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