Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-18 19:05:32

Constituency Profile


Boutin, Bianca

Brisson, Daniel

Bureau, Tommy

Duclos, Jean-Yves

Kerr, Patrick

Sansfaçon, Louis

Simard, Karine


Jean-Yves Duclos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



34.56 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jean-Yves Duclos ** 1804733.30%
Christiane Gagn 1772232.70%
Bianca Boutin 811815.00%
Tommy Bureau 622011.50%
Luc Joli-Coeur 29495.40%
Bruno Dabiré 6741.20%
Sébastien CoRhino 3490.60%
Luc Paquin 1190.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jean-Yves Duclos 1556628.90%
Annick Papillon ** 1456627.00%
Pierre-Thomas Asselin 1173721.80%
Charles Mordret 1015318.80%
Philippe Riboty 15702.90%
Normand Fournier 1530.30%
Danielle Provost 1220.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2280.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 J.F. Breton
Les échos sur le terrain laissent entendre que le vote stratégique pour sortir Duclos ne sera pas très efficace. Du coup, il devrait être réélu (très serré) par division du vote entre bloquistes, conservateurs et néo-démocrates.
17/08/21 A.S.
Duclos = the new Landslide Annie, I suppose. It takes a real fine-weave poll-by-poll patchwork for him to be electable for 2 elections running; and one might even suggest that the persistence of the NDP helped thwart an upset by the former Bloc MP in '19 (yes, sometimes vote splits on the left *do* help the Liberals). And somehow, a more technically ‘binary’ race didn't prevent this from *still* being interesting in 4 directions--blame CPC's continuing clinging to its Vanier/Duberger bulwark, and the NDP still managing to cling to a few polls and coming within a point of CPC when it came to e-day ballots cast. (Worth considering in the back-and-forth: the Bloc won the advance polls, but the Libs came through on e-day and in the specials. It *really* was a tug of war.)
17/08/21 Marco Ricci
This riding was extremely close in 2019 (and even had to go to a re-count). But with the Liberals now moving ahead of the BQ in the latest Quebec polls and with former BQ MP Christiane Gagnon not running again (the new BQ candidate is Louis Sansfaçon), the riding probably leans toward Jean-Yves Duclos for the moment.
15/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
Duclos has the advantage of being the incumbent. If Gagnon is not running, one should assume that will weaken the BQ vote.
Also, I did the maths in 2019 when some claimed the CPC can win this riding - it is impossible. Even a perfect split of the non-CPC vote will lead to one of the Liberals, BQ or NDP winning this riding. There is insufficient conservative support in this part of Québec City for Bianca to win.
12/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte toujours fort intéressante dans Québec, malgré le statut de ministre de Duclos. Tant qu'on ne connaîtra pas la liste des candidats dans cette circonscription, surtout du Bloc québécois, impossible de prédire un gagnant.

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