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References:
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| 18/09/21 |
J.F. Breton 207.253.54.66 |
Les échos sur le terrain laissent entendre que le vote stratégique pour sortir Duclos ne sera pas très efficace. Du coup, il devrait être réélu (très serré) par division du vote entre bloquistes, conservateurs et néo-démocrates. |
| 17/08/21 |
A.S. 99.225.52.35 |
Duclos = the new Landslide Annie, I suppose. It takes a real fine-weave poll-by-poll patchwork for him to be electable for 2 elections running; and one might even suggest that the persistence of the NDP helped thwart an upset by the former Bloc MP in '19 (yes, sometimes vote splits on the left *do* help the Liberals). And somehow, a more technically ‘binary’ race didn't prevent this from *still* being interesting in 4 directions--blame CPC's continuing clinging to its Vanier/Duberger bulwark, and the NDP still managing to cling to a few polls and coming within a point of CPC when it came to e-day ballots cast. (Worth considering in the back-and-forth: the Bloc won the advance polls, but the Libs came through on e-day and in the specials. It *really* was a tug of war.) |
| 17/08/21 |
Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78 |
This riding was extremely close in 2019 (and even had to go to a re-count). But with the Liberals now moving ahead of the BQ in the latest Quebec polls and with former BQ MP Christiane Gagnon not running again (the new BQ candidate is Louis Sansfaçon), the riding probably leans toward Jean-Yves Duclos for the moment. |
| 15/08/21 |
QuebecCityOliver 184.162.205.23 |
Duclos has the advantage of being the incumbent. If Gagnon is not running, one should assume that will weaken the BQ vote. Also, I did the maths in 2019 when some claimed the CPC can win this riding - it is impossible. Even a perfect split of the non-CPC vote will lead to one of the Liberals, BQ or NDP winning this riding. There is insufficient conservative support in this part of Québec City for Bianca to win. |
| 12/05/21 |
J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9 |
Lutte toujours fort intéressante dans Québec, malgré le statut de ministre de Duclos. Tant qu'on ne connaîtra pas la liste des candidats dans cette circonscription, surtout du Bloc québécois, impossible de prédire un gagnant. |
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