Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:57:09

Constituency Profile


Chatel, Sophie

Desjardins, Gabrielle

Gauthier, Michel

Giroux, Denise

Gottfred, David Bruce

Labonté-Chartrand, Geneviève

McArthur, Shaughn

McNair, James


William Amos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



27281.85 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

William Amos ** 3021748.90%
Dave Blackburn 1041616.80%
Jonathan Carreiro-Beno 992916.10%
Denise Giroux 650310.50%
Claude Bertrand 37626.10%
Mario Belec 7751.30%
Shawn Stewart 1940.30%
Louis Lang 510.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

William Amos 3415454.50%
Mathieu Ravignat ** 1409022.50%
Benjamin Woodman 871613.90%
Nicolas Lepage 43376.90%
Colin Griffiths 10891.70%
Pascal Médieu 1310.20%
Louis Lang 1080.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 870.17%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (70.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (19.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.72% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 Drew613
This hasn't been mentioned on here yet, but the Liberals have anywhere from a 9 to 13 point lead in Pontiac according to a Mainstreet riding poll released a week ago (decided 9% lead, decided & leaning 11% lead and 'who would you vote for today' = 13% lead). Even with the retiring MP's debacles, this looks like a safe Liberal hold with perhaps a smaller margin of victory this time around.
21/08/21 R.O.
Perhaps self explanatory that when your known as the ‘ naked mp ‘ in Ottawa you don’t exactly have a future there . so not really a surprise that Will Amos decided not to run again. So mostly new candidates this year Sophie Chatel for liberals , Michael Gauthier conservative and Gabrielle Desjardins bloc . somewhat of a swing riding so rather early to predict the race here.
15/08/21 A.S.
Well, that's it for the ‘honourable member’ jokes. Though Amos did lose his '15 majority in '19; but it didn't matter because of how the opposition was split--and the whole Lawrence Cannon-era hangover element of the Cons chancing into a distant 2nd on those same old rural Ottawa Valley Anglo-fumes. That is, Liberal status quo reigns here, whomever's the honourable member or possessor thereof. (Though I don't know how many instances there are of so many polls going to the opposition despite an over 30-point margin and nearly 3:1 advantage--the Cons clustered in rural Anglo territory, the awakened Bloc clustered out Maniwaki way. All cancelled out by the outskirts of Gatineau.)
09/08/21 Marco Ricci
Liberal MP Will Amos announced today that he will not seek re-election:
It's not a total surprise given his recent controversy in appearing naked on camera in the virtual House of Commons meetings. Given the large Liberal wins in 2015 & 2019, this riding probably still leans Liberal for now.
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Peu de risque ici pour les Libéraux. La seule circonscription qui sera l'objet d'une lutte en Outaouais sera Argenteuil-La Petite Nation. Victoire libérale sans trop d'encombre.

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