Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:07:53

Constituency Profile


Ben Youssef, Nabila

Boutin, Christian

Colly, Garnet

Lepine, Alain

Martin, Raymond

Paré, Christine

Rivera, Julio

Trudeau, Justin

Zako, Béatrice

Znoneofthe, Above


Justin Trudeau

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9.91 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Justin Trudeau ** 2595751.10%
Christine Paré 974819.20%
Christian Gagn 812416.00%
Juan Vazquez 37417.40%
Sophie Veilleux 21554.20%
Jean-Patrick Cacereco Berthiaume 3630.70%
Mark Sibthorpe 3220.60%
Susanne Lefebvre 1860.40%
Alain Magnan 760.10%
Luc Lupien 750.10%
Steve Penner 340.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Justin Trudeau ** 2639152.00%
Anne Lagacé Dowson 1313225.90%
Maxime Claveau 618212.20%
Yvon Vadnais 23904.70%
Danny Polifroni 14432.80%
Chris Lloyd 5051.00%
Tommy Gaudet 3230.60%
Kim Waldron 1590.30%
Peter Macrisopoulos 1420.30%
Beverly Bernardo 1030.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3560.78%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (92.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.57% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

16/09/21 R.O.
Trudeau will surely hold onto the papineau riding he’s been mp for it since 2008 and even survived the 2011 election. Although he’s never properly explained why he called this election in the first place and that might help to explain why the polls have remained so close. As many voters never felt a pandemic vote was justified and some worry e day could turn into a fiasco in some ridings due to lack of staff and fewer polls compared to past years. but most of urban montreal will stay liberal regardless .
09/09/21 Jake H.
The real race here is for second place, obviously.
There is more ‘anti-Trudeau’ sentiment here and across the board than in 2019, but despite that this will still be a cake-walk for the PM/Liberal leader, in a riding that has been red forever other than a brief blip when the Bloc was able to pry it away from them in the wake of the Sponsorship Scandal.
Trudeau took 51% of the vote last time despite high profile scandals (‘corruption’, ‘blackface’ etc), so expect more of the same this time around.
An absolute, definite, 100% Liberal hold.
21/08/21 Marco Ricci
The thing to remember about Papineau is that it has been a Liberal stronghold since the 1950's. Only once, in 2006, during the height of the Sponsorship Scandal, have the Liberals lost it. After winning the riding from the BQ in 2008, Justin Trudeau has put this riding solidly back in the Liberal column. That is also reflected by the fact that there are hardly any entries on this page. Back in the days of Justin Trudeau vs. Vivan Barbot, this page had a lot of activity. Now this page is virtually empty. A sign of how predictable the wins for Trudeau have become.
15/08/21 A.S.
Call be clairvoyant; but even before Jagmeetmania hit in '19, I was speculating on the likelihood of the NDP in 2nd on grounds of provincial QS strength and the present-day Bloc's lack of urban appeal. And...I was right. Of course, a distant 2nd to Justin; but it *was* their best result in a Montreal (or indeed, Quebec) riding they didn't hold in '15. Not that Justin is in any danger of electoral decapitation, but...
05/05/21 JW
CPC won over 80% in most rural Aberta ridings last time.

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