Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:29:02

Constituency Profile


Bendayan, Rachel

Grimard, Célia

Joshi, Angela-Angie

Louras, Jasmine

Péclet, ?ve

Pinto, Yehuda

Tarabey, Grace


Rachel Bendayan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11.95 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Rachel Bendayan ** 1914846.20%
Andrea Clarke 831920.10%
Célia Grima 574113.80%
Daniel Green 501812.10%
Jasmine Louras 27076.50%
Sabin Lévesque 3690.90%
Mark John Hiemstra 1550.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tom Mulcair ** 1924244.10%
Rachel Bendayan 1459733.50%
Rodolphe Husny 41599.50%
Roger Galland Barou 36688.40%
Amara Diallo 15753.60%
Francis Pouliot 2160.50%
Adrien Welsh 1620.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3610.86%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (86.46% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.77% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.76% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mount Royal
   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/21 GritBusters
Though there are pockets of leftism and of Québec nationalism in Outremont, it's never been among Montreal's most left-leaning or most nationalist ridings. Without Mulcair, this an easy Liberal hold. Maybe we'll see higher-than-expected Tory and PPC support due to certain demographics in this riding being prone to vaccine hesitancy and anti-vaxx sentiments, but it won't be anywhere close to enough to threaten the Liberal incumbent.
15/08/21 A.S.
The sunken '19 NDP share really has to be viewed alongside the Daniel Green left-split situation--but yes, a lot of the cloak of NDP illustriousness has to do w/Mulcair, as well as the pre-Mulcair fact of the NDP fallow-years ‘investment’ in Mile End as a seed of party support in Quebec. But w/the Greens collapsing and Bendayan being not as high-profile as Guilbeault, expect that Jagmeetian good-vibeyness to continue to stake claims in Outremont. And remember once again: this is Montreal, it isn't the Rest Of Quebec...
11/05/21 Ottawa 99
Si le NPD gagnait dix circonscriptions au Québec, Outremont serait probablement parmi elles. Québec Solidaire est très fort à Mile End (mais beaucoup moins fort à Outremont et même aux alentours de l'Université de Montréal). Cela dit, il est clair qu'Outremont n'est plus la circonscription la plus favorable au NPD dans la province. Étant donné que le NPD continue d'avoir beaucoup de difficultés au Québec et que Rachel Bendayan est plutôt active dans la communauté, je pense que les libéraux vont très facilement gagner cette circonscription.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster